TX-SEN: True to Form

[Bidenworth2020]

you know if republican turnout is somewhat lower and beto doesn’t get absolutely demolished in the rural areas while maintaining/outdoing hillary’s margins in the triangle, he has a pretty decent chance

He definitely needs to outdo Hillary's margins in the triangle. Rural TX is not swingy at all, so Beto will get demolished there. He may do marginally better than Hillary in rural TX, but not significantly.

yes i mean by appealing to rural areas he could do less horribly than usual and lose by like less than 40 points instead of the high 40s

I don't know man... rural TX is super inelastic. It's not like the rural midwest / plains states that are elastic. Most of the democratic votes from rural TX are Latinos, who have low turnout in midterms.

I don't think Beto even gets a 5 point swing from rural TX, honestly. Maybe in rural border counties, but not in the rural panhandle.

What? TX-13, the panhandle sistrcit, literally voted for Clinton in 92! There is dem strength possible here.

[Bidenworth2020]

Well, putting aside the likelihood of it actually happening, the idea of Baker and Hogan being "mainstream Republicans" is laughable. A "mainstream Republican" is Steve King.

Wrong


The reason Trump won is because he had the most name recognition and most media attention. If Steve King ran instead of Trump , King would get destroyed.

Jeb bush? Lol

[Bidenworth2020]

Well, putting aside the likelihood of it actually happening, the idea of Baker and Hogan being "mainstream Republicans" is laughable. A "mainstream Republican" is Steve King.

Wrong


The reason Trump won is because he had the most name recognition and most media attention. If Steve King ran instead of Trump , King would get destroyed.

Jeb bush? Lol

Marco Rubio

lmao, rubio doesnt represent republicans, trump represents them. look at the primaries. I was saying bush had high name rec and still got destroyed

[Bidenworth2020]

Top Trump Adviser Says Ted Cruz Could Lose Texas Senate Race

who is this?

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm not sure I understand what you are trying to say here.

Well, that's one of the things that I have started looking at when it comes to TX-CD-23...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300604.0

Bexar County is pivotal and accounts for 50% of the Vote Share of CD-23, as well as the most Republican "Vote Bank" within the CD.

Yet it accounted for the largest chunk of swings between '12 and '16 for US-PRES of just about any County in CD-23.

This is one of the most Republican parts of the District, and swung heavily against Trump in '16, mainly as a result of Anglo voters in the San Antonio (SA) 'Burbs....

Is it reasonable to expect these same communities will not swing even further in the US-TX-SEN race this November, considering that Anglos tend to vote in much higher levels in Midterm elections in TX compared to many other communities that are more heavily "Minority" when it comes to race/ethnicity/country of origin, etc....?

Not buying your argument when it comes to using TX-23 as an example, because it actually defies what the raw data and electoral history tells us about where the actual major swings in Texas occurred between the '12 > '16 US PRES race.

What is my argument that you refer to that you say you are not buying? I am not sure what you think I am arguing.



With respect to TX-23, the NYT/Siena poll had Hurd winning college-educated whites 69% - 23% (almost the same as non-college educated whites). Obviously there is a large MOE there since the sample is only 153 people, but if the "true" numbers are anything close to that, it is not remotely what Dems need to make TX competitive.

My sincere apologies for lack of clarity....

Bexar County and CD-23 Polls in general tend to be not not particularly representative of even "off-year" year election voters....''

I don't know what type of THC or CBD related products you are consuming in the event of CD-23, but Anglos in the District aren't nearly as "cray-cray (Using some lingo from a Black Sista' I worked closely with and we become good friends in 4 Years in Houston, Texas).

Pubs lose TX CD-23 for US-REP, will likely be as a direct result of Anglo swings in the 'burbs of SA, combined with than average TO numbers among working-class Latinos in an "off-year" election....

The reason I posted was directly related to your comments on the TX-23 race, and some of the cross-threads when it comes to Latino turnout in "off-year elections"....

Anglo suburban SA might well exhibit interesting results in November '18 at the US-SEN, US-REP, TX-GOV, etc.... elections....

I personally think we are gonna see a very large amount of crossover voters Hurd/Beto, around 15%. Ortiz Jones may do a tad better in the border counties, with a hispanic surname

[Bidenworth2020]

My dad early voted just over an hour ago in person, north dallas suburbs, obviously straight democrat, he texted me this:

“I voted. Remember there was hardly any line last time? This time there is a constant line about 100 yards long!”

"...and they all were voting for Cruz"

lmao.. keep telling yourself that, and most importantly, dont waste your time voting!

[Bidenworth2020]

We need high turnout in El Paso, Dallas, and Harris Counties, and low turnout in the white rural areas.

I actually think Beto will do as well as Sadler in rural areas.

[Bidenworth2020]

msnbc calls it. makes no sense to me!