2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Sorenroy]

All votes must be counted.

Losing that bet (Trump ends between 240-268EV) would mean missing 450€ !

But I have won another 450€ bet, by predicting Biden wins the election by losing FL and OH and a few smaller ones for 100€.

Nevada jumped from 73c to 88c on PredictIt.

Don't tell that Tender.

NV is ok.

Biden should just lose one of GA or AZ by 100 votes or so ...

I think you got something wrong here.

I bet 50€ on Trump winning 240-268 EV, because it had very good odds.

That means Trump loses the election ...

I also have a very real personal stake in the outcome of this election.

I want Biden to win (just not in GA or AZ) and I want the money.

Take your outrage elsewhere plz guys.

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

Because I have a 50€ bet on William Hill, in which I would win 450€ if Trump ends somewhere between 240 and 268 EV.

If he wins both states, Trump drops below 240 EV ...

Tender, I think we all get that you have money down on Trump narrowly losing the election, can you please stop giving us constant updates saying that exact same thing? You have other things to add, but derailing the thread with back and forths about you winning or losing money when everyone is looking for updates out of the closest states adds nothing and clogs the thread.

[Sorenroy]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324711201646018560?s=19

I honestly would like this. Republicans have spent more than a decade crying fraud at every level, perhaps if a Trump-backed campaign went ahead and found nothing it would change people's mind (I doubt it - the last decade of fraud commissions still have Republicans complaining). Unfortunately, it's not going to be checks of fraud over the next two months but constant litigation around how many legally cast ballots can be thrown out.

[Sorenroy]

Given that it's been a whole 30 minutes and no one has posted everything, I want to reiterate the level of caution being used by the major networks. Everything I've heard is that their not calling states until they are at least 99.5% certain of the outcome. That's the chances of a one in 200 thing occurring. While it seems increasingly likely that the remaining states won't go to Trump, I don't think it's one in 200 chance unlikely that whatever's left ends up going his way. And, again, the election is called state by state, so even if Biden has multiple paths through multiple states, each state must individually pass that one in 200 threshold.

[Sorenroy]

Mississippi has updated their vote totals:

58.4% Trump
40.3% Biden

Today's Mississippi updates, as well as bringing Biden above 40% in the state, also break the record for most votes cast for any candidate in an election. Trump currently stands at 734,466, beating McCain's 2008 record of 724,597.

[Sorenroy]

The AP says Virginia's election commission has now certified the results, but their website still says otherwise.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-senate-elections-constitutions-0f2cd3a854432b25d0d4122b399fa8e8

I wonder if there were more votes added than to the figures on NYT... several blue areas aren't even 90% yet.

Just posted in another thread about how NYTimes/AP estimates for some post-election day counts can be very bad. They have Norfolk at 87% reporting even though they have official results matching the current totals reporting on the NYTimes page.

In almost every election the New York Times stops caring about updating their vote totals.

It's super frustrating that the self-described "newspaper of record" just gives up their counts after the election. With all the time and effort put into the graphics and the date behind them, you'd think they'd carry their work to the finish line and at least have a few staff members working on this 'till all the results are in.

[Sorenroy]

Another more complex gradient scale

Why not use the gradient in your signature? I know it measures percent chance rather than voteshare, but it's a good set of colors. Just make the color max out at 60% or something and have the lightest colors give way to the darker ones at lower amounts.

[Sorenroy]

According to the AP, Biden has officially cracked 60% in New York.

Joe Biden
Democratic Party
60.3%
4,950,937

Donald Trump
Republican Party
38.4%
3,151,359

Biden beats Johnson's 1964 record for votes in New York state. Johnson's record of 4,913,102 votes had stood for 56 years, with Obama's 2008 number missing the mark by more than 100,000 votes. Trump still lands more than a million behind Nixon's 1972 Republican record for the state, but it is the best number of votes for a Republican since 1984.