Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Del Tachi]

With Jim Hood and now Brandon Pressley now out of the running, is there anyone the Mississippi Democratic Party has left in the pipeline who can make the next gubernatorial election in 2027 as competitive as they did?  Or is this the end of the road for Blue Dogs in the state?  If so, we might as well start getting used to Republicans winning the governor's mansion by the same 60-40 margin they won the lower row offices this year. 

Presley is only 46 years old and he's proven to be a more than capable fundraiser.  No reason he couldn't run again in four years. 

Interesting will be who the GOP nominates after Reeves.  Hosemann as Lieutenant Governor is next-in-line but I doubt he wants it (would be 81 at the start of his first term.)  Michael Watson, Lynn Fitch, and Shad White seem like the most ambitious and currently best positioned statewide pols.  If I had to guess, Fitch and Watson run for governor and White gets the LG spot.  A pretty terrible crop all around, haha 

[Del Tachi]

Limited precinct returns we have indicate Presley doing worse with college-educated voters than Hood did.

Selection bias.  Presley did worse than Hood across Metro Jackson and (weirdly?) Oxford.  What about college-educated precincts on the Coast, Hattiesburg, DeSoto, Tupelo, etc.

[Del Tachi]

Crazy to think what would have happened had Reeves been ~51% on election night, Presley concedes, and then certifications and late-reporting provisionals push Reeves below 50%. 

[Del Tachi]

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

Moore-vs-Jones in Mississippi wouldn't even be competitive come election day.  D+7 or D+8 would be my guess, a seemingly impossible statewide Democrat performance to imagine in the Deep South.  Mississippi just has a lot more Democrats than Alabama.

[Del Tachi]

Presley gonna do way better than Stacey Abrams did in Georgia last year LOL

Forget #BLORGIA it's now #BLUESISSIPPI

[Del Tachi]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

[Del Tachi]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

Add the expected margin of error for exit polls...and they're both 80/20

I mean, maybe AL Whites really are marginally more Democrat-voting than MS Whites.  How much of a difference is that really worth?  It's not like we're comparing Mississippi to New Jersey lol

[Del Tachi]

My final prediction of Reeves at 50.3% may not end up being that far off!