2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[MT Treasurer]

Speaking of NY-22 :

https://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2019/12/ny-22-mccarthy-endorses-tenney/

Not a very smart move to say the least.

Brindisi is a very lucky guy

It would be amazing if the GOP threw away their best chance to win back the most winnable seat for them in 2020.

It’s just the NRCC and NRSC doing what they always do: electing Democrats.

[Frenchrepublican]

Speaking of NY-22 :

https://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2019/12/ny-22-mccarthy-endorses-tenney/

Not a very smart move to say the least.

Brindisi is a very lucky guy

It would be amazing if the GOP threw away their best chance to win back the most winnable seat for them in 2020.

We are talking about a party which failed to defeat a democratic senator in a Trump+42 state ! Why are you surprised ?

[Frenchrepublican]

Speaking of NY-22 :

https://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2019/12/ny-22-mccarthy-endorses-tenney/

Not a very smart move to say the least.

Brindisi is a very lucky guy

It would be amazing if the GOP threw away their best chance to win back the most winnable seat for them in 2020.

It’s just the NRCC and NRSC doing what they always do: electing Democrats.

Yeah, it’s becoming boring..... didn’t you know that VA-10 is more competitive than MN-7 ? VA-10 voted for Dole after all !

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, it’s becoming boring..... didn’t you know that VA-10 is more competitive than MN-7 ? VA-10 voted for Dole after all !

I’m honestly surprised that they’re targeting MI-SEN and MN-7, lol.

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah, it’s becoming boring..... didn’t you know that VA-10 is more competitive than MN-7 ? VA-10 voted for Dole after all !

I’m honestly surprised that they’re targeting MI-SEN and MN-7, lol.

Well, yeah it’s a progress compared to 2018. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem that PA-8 will be a serious target.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, it’s becoming boring..... didn’t you know that VA-10 is more competitive than MN-7 ? VA-10 voted for Dole after all !

I’m honestly surprised that they’re targeting MI-SEN and MN-7, lol.

Well, yeah it’s a progress compared to 2018. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem that PA-8 will be a serious target.

Speaking about PA 8th
https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1204806116128935939

[Ebsy]

The GOP friendly OH Predictive Insights has the GCB at 44-44 in Arizona btw.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Of course RCP sat on their own poll because it didn't look good for the GOP-

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1204997292551368704?s=20

[Epaminondas]

Of course RCP sat on their own poll because it didn't look good for the GOP-

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1204997292551368704?s=20

"Trump down 15 to Sanders among Catholics" wouldn't sell too well on the RCP homepage.

Meanwhile, they cling on like dear life to that USA Today R+0 poll from 7 weeks ago.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Still Safe D, but depending how Trump does statewide, this could be maybe 2% more competitive.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Ryan is safe for 2020, though he could easily become a redistricting victim in 2022.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Ryan is safe for 2020, though he could easily become a redistricting victim in 2022.

Also my opinion, now OH 13th had, I think, the biggest R swing of any congressional district in 2018

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Ryan is safe for 2020, though he could easily become a redistricting victim in 2022.

Also my opinion, now OH 13th had, I think, the biggest R swing of any congressional district in 2018

Similar to WV-3 having possibly the largest D swing of any congressional district in 2018.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Ryan is safe for 2020, though he could easily become a redistricting victim in 2022.

Also my opinion, now OH 13th had, I think, the biggest R swing of any congressional district in 2018

Similar to WV-3 having possibly the largest D swing of any congressional district in 2018.

It's not really comparable, 2016 was a R leaning year while 2018 was a D wave, so even if WV-3 swung far more to the left than the rest of the country it didn't buck the global trends, OH-13 on the other hand clearly bucked the national trends as it became far more R between 2016 and 2018, then you have to compare apples to apples, I mean WV-3 was a open seat in 2018 while OH-13 had the same incumbent than two years earlier, open seats are generally speaking more prone to wild swings than races with a running incumbent.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ThomasSuddes/status/1205631064682770433

Ryan is safe for 2020, though he could easily become a redistricting victim in 2022.

Also my opinion, now OH 13th had, I think, the biggest R swing of any congressional district in 2018

Similar to WV-3 having possibly the largest D swing of any congressional district in 2018.

 it was NJ 11th IIRC.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats' generic ballot lead has increased since last week. So much for impeachment destroying us.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[Brittain33]

The Democrats' generic ballot lead has increased since last week. So much for impeachment destroying us.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

The tremendous irony of an RCP poll driving up the Democratic advantage of a different poll aggregator.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats' generic ballot lead has increased since last week. So much for impeachment destroying us.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

The tremendous irony of an RCP poll driving up the Democratic advantage of a different poll aggregator.

LOL they never even entered it into their own aggregate.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1206596322918309896?s=20

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

SHHH let them spend millions there

[Storr]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

I feel with her district it's simply that a lot of big donor party insider types live there. The party kept spending tons of cash in VA-10 last year despite it being an obvious triage.

[Gracile]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

I feel with her district it's simply that a lot of big donor party insider types live there. The party kept spending tons of cash in VA-10 last year despite it being an obvious triage.

This is very true. I would also add that Comstock's connections to party officials likely played a role in the high amount of money spent here. Comstock has worked in various capacities in Republican party politics, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of her colleagues in high places were able to sway the NRCC to spend money on her race. An incumbent who didn't have a long history as a party insider likely would have been left for dead.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The NRCC is on twitter right now writing press releases against Wexton in VA-10.




How are we this stupid? How?

I feel with her district it's simply that a lot of big donor party insider types live there. The party kept spending tons of cash in VA-10 last year despite it being an obvious triage.

This is very true. I would also add that Comstock's connections to party officials likely played a role in the high amount of money spent here. Comstock has worked in various capacities in Republican party politics, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of her colleagues in high places were able to sway the NRCC to spend money on her race. An incumbent who didn't have a long history as a party insider likely would have been left for dead.

Even so, why are we continuing to do this when she's no longer even running? Why can't "big donor party insider types" recognize what is apparent to all of us and say that it's time to manage resources more effectively? Like, for all the talk on this forum about how districts like TX-07 or CA-39 are gone in 2020, at least those races were decided by literally a third of the margin here.