Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Mr. Morden]

The fact that they eliminated the donor qualifications just to accommodate Bloomberg is such a good microcosm of the corruption we're living under.

I agree. On the flip side though, we could say it's unfair that he gets to just run ads everywhere without getting challenged by his competitors on a debate stage.

Yeah, wasn't Warren complaining that the DNC was letting Bloomberg get away with *not* participating in the debates, where he could get the same scrutiny as the others?

In any case, there's been such a drought of qualifying national polls, that it's far from clear that Bloomberg is going to qualify for the Nevada debate.  He only has 1 qualifying poll at 10% (the new threshold for those who haven't already earned any delegates), so needs 3 more, and the deadline is 11 days from now.

[The Other Castro]

Updated February NV debate:

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac has given Bloomberg his second qualifying poll for the Nevada debate.  He still needs two more in order to get in, and he needs them by next week Tuesday.

[Tintrlvr]

Quinnipiac has given Bloomberg his second qualifying poll for the Nevada debate.  He still needs two more in order to get in, and he needs them by next week Tuesday.

Seems like he will make it as long as there are two more national qualifying polls before then, which seems likely as pollsters will want to assess the post-NH state of the race. Real question is whether Steyer makes it, or, rather, will there be two qualifying South Carolina polls by next Tuesday

Q-Pac was also a qualifying poll for Buttigieg, though he doesn't need it at this point.

[Tender Branson]

Monmouth poll shows Bloomberg at 10%+

That's his 3rd poll.

Has Bloomberg already said if he will debate in NV, considering he's skipping NV and SC ?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Monmouth poll shows Bloomberg at 10%+

That's his 3rd poll.

Has Bloomberg already said if he will debate in NV, considering he's skipping NV and SC ?

He's said a couple times that if they invite him on stage, he'll go.

He just doesn't want to beg for donations for the first time in his career in order to do it.

[Tender Branson]

Monmouth poll shows Bloomberg at 10%+

That's his 3rd poll.

Has Bloomberg already said if he will debate in NV, considering he's skipping NV and SC ?

He's said a couple times that if they invite him on stage, he'll go.

He just doesn't want to beg for donations for the first time in his career in order to do it.

But if he's accepting to debate in NV and SC, despite announcing to skip the states, it's really hypocritical ...

[GeneralMacArthur]

Monmouth poll shows Bloomberg at 10%+

That's his 3rd poll.

Has Bloomberg already said if he will debate in NV, considering he's skipping NV and SC ?

He's said a couple times that if they invite him on stage, he'll go.

He just doesn't want to beg for donations for the first time in his career in order to do it.

But if he's accepting to debate in NV and SC, despite announcing to skip the states, it's really hypocritical ...

Are the debates only being broadcast in NV and SC?

The NH debate barely even mentioned NH.

They're national debates.

[Tender Branson]

Monmouth poll shows Bloomberg at 10%+

That's his 3rd poll.

Has Bloomberg already said if he will debate in NV, considering he's skipping NV and SC ?

He's said a couple times that if they invite him on stage, he'll go.

He just doesn't want to beg for donations for the first time in his career in order to do it.

But if he's accepting to debate in NV and SC, despite announcing to skip the states, it's really hypocritical ...

Are the debates only being broadcast in NV and SC?

The NH debate barely even mentioned NH.

They're national debates.

No, they were more designed to be for the early states, that's why they happen(ed) in each early state.

A debate before Super Tuesday would be kinda a national debate and it would be one where Bloomberg could legitimately participate without looking like a hypocrite.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I'd love to see Bernie/Warren vs Bloomberg debate! I think that Warren would take him apart in no time (and Bernie become the nominee). May be I am wrong. Mike is sharp, but I don't know if he is a good debater. We'll see soon enough!

[Tender Branson]

Pete now also has 3/4 qualifying polls with 10%+

But of course, he's already at the NV debate because of IA and NH delegates.

[Mr. Morden]

Monmouth poll shows Bloomberg at 10%+

That's his 3rd poll.

Has Bloomberg already said if he will debate in NV, considering he's skipping NV and SC ?

He's said a couple times that if they invite him on stage, he'll go.

He just doesn't want to beg for donations for the first time in his career in order to do it.

But if he's accepting to debate in NV and SC, despite announcing to skip the states, it's really hypocritical ...

That's the norm though.  Candidates basically always attend any debate they're invited to, whether it's in a state they're competing in or not.  There's been a long history of candidates skipping Iowa, but still participating in debates there for example.  E.g., in 2000, McCain was skipping Iowa, but went to a debate there, and even used the occasion to attack his rivals for only supporting ethanol subsidies because they want to win Iowa (to some boos from the audience).

[Mr. Morden]

Dems will debate on March 15th in Phoenix, AZ:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/14/democratic-primary-debate-march-arizona-115270

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So it's just the top 5 then. Ok, the other 3 need to drop soon.

[T'Chenka]

So it's just the top 5 then. Ok, the other 3 need to drop soon.

Steyer might not drop out until he can no longer get on the debate stage and make Bernie look good.

Biden and Gabbard will be gone in a matter of weeks.

Buttigieg and Warren will very possibly be gone by St Patrick's Day.

One of Bloomberg / Klobuchar will make it to the final three.

Sanders or Bloomberg/Klobuchar will be the nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

So it's just the top 5 then. Ok, the other 3 need to drop soon.

Bloomberg just needs one more qualifying national poll in which he's at 10%.  He's only got a few days left though, so it really depends on which, if any, national polls we get this weekend.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So it's just the top 5 then. Ok, the other 3 need to drop soon.

Bloomberg just needs one more qualifying national poll in which he's at 10%.  He's only got a few days left though, so it really depends on which, if any, national polls we get this weekend.

I don't think he'll be able to get one, though.

[Tender Branson]

So it's just the top 5 then. Ok, the other 3 need to drop soon.

Bloomberg just needs one more qualifying national poll in which he's at 10%.  He's only got a few days left though, so it really depends on which, if any, national polls we get this weekend.

I don't think he'll be able to get one, though.

CNN hasn’t polled in a month nationwide, so they could release one before the deadline.

The real question will be if he accepts to debate in NV and SC ...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I can't see him not accepting it if he qualifies. Otherwise, he'd be perceived weak (and rightly so). But I'd love to see Trump mocking him, if he doesn't - "Mini-Mike didn't go, because they didn't give him boxes to stand on! SAD!"




If I were Bloomberg I'd pay pollsters for NOT releasing their polls!

[Mr. Morden]

So the Nevada debate is in 4 days, with the qualification period closing in 3 days.  But the South Carolina debate is just 6 days after the Nevada debate (or 10 days from now), and they *still* haven't announced what the qualification rules for that one will be?

[Mr. Morden]

DNC releases qualification rules for the South Carolina debate, which are very similar to the qualification rules for the Nevada debate:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/dnc-announces-south-carolina-debate-qualification-rules-115394

To qualify for the Feb. 25 debate in Charleston, S.C., candidates need to hit 10 percent in four polls approved by the Democratic National Committee (or 12 percent in South Carolina-specific polls) or win at least one delegate to the Democratic National Convention from one of the three preceding early states: Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada. Polls must be released between Feb. 4 (the day after the Iowa caucuses) and Feb. 24.

These rules are similar to the criteria for the Feb. 19 debate in Nevada, with the only changes being a shorter polling window and not counting Nevada polls toward qualification, because the debate takes place after Nevadans would have voted.

According to POLITICO’s tracking of public polling and delegate projections, five candidates have immediately qualified for the South Carolina debate: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Those same five are the only candidates who’ve qualified so far for the debate in Nevada on Feb. 19.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Steyer now has 1 qualifying poll for the Nevada debate (but needs three more, and there are only a few days left):

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1228772207666614274

[Mr. Morden]

So it looks like Steyer is unlikely to make it on qualifying for the Nevada debate.  But he could end up qualifying for the SC debate, because if he manages to hit 15% in at least 1 congressional district in Nevada, that gets him a delegate and qualifies him for the SC debate.

Bloomberg is still reliant on national polls to qualify for both the NV and SC debates.  He has one qualifying poll left to go for NV and two more to go for SC (because the time window is a little different).

Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren are all guaranteed spots in both debates because they've all gotten at least one delegate.

[Tender Branson]

Ehh, why has Steyer got a NV qualifying poll ?

The rules say 2 state polls from NV or SC with 12% or more.

Steyer got 11% in the last poll ...

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Steyer now has 1 qualifying poll for the Nevada debate (but needs three more, and there are only a few days left):

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1228772207666614274

Did the DNC count this NV poll as a national poll ?