Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Tender Branson]

Really? I thought qualifications were about how well everyone did in Iowa.

That's apparently just one ingredient.

You can still qualify with national and state polls for the February debate (excl. IA polls).

[Orser67]

Hopefully we'll finally get a smaller debate on February 19th or February 25th.

[President Johnson]

I think it's time to include Mike Bloomberg (even though I hope he doesn't stay in too long to allow moderates consolidate behind Biden). He should be in the debates now given how much support the former mayor of America's largest city has gained. Actually I'd love to see one on one debate with Bernie and Bloomberg. That would be interesting.

[John Dule]

Yang has double Steyer's numbers in national polling; it's just his massive amounts of cash he's funneling into the early states that's making a difference.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1223325476787228678

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/31/dnc-shifts-debate-requirements-opening-door-for-bloomberg-110017

The Democratic National Committee is drastically revising its criteria to participate in primary debates after New Hampshire, doubling the polling threshold and eliminating the individual donor requirement, which could pave the way for former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg to make the stage beginning in mid-February.

Candidates will need to earn at least 10 percent in four polls released between Jan. 15 and Feb. 18, or 12 percent in two polls conducted in Nevada or South Carolina, in order to participate in the Feb. 19 debate in Las Vegas. Any candidate who earns at least one delegate to the national convention in either the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary will also qualify for the Nevada debate.
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As of Friday, the three candidates who have met the Nevada polling thresholds are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The other candidates, including Bloomberg, have not yet cleared the polling threshold.

[GeneralMacArthur]

10% is right around the threshold for Bloomberg.  Depends how many polls come out between now and then.  He'd probably be getting 12% in NV/SC if he bothered competing there.

[Mr. Morden]

Just took a quick check, and I think we've had zero qualifying polls from Nevada or SC since Jan. 15th.  So all we have currently for the Feb. 19th debate are qualifying *national* polls.

Of those, it looks like Biden, Sanders, and Warren all already have four or more polls at 10%+, so they've already qualified.  Bloomberg and Buttigieg each have just one poll each at 10%+, so they need three more to go.

However, Buttigieg seems pretty likely to get at least 1 delegate out of Iowa and/or NH, if polling is to be believed, so he'll presumably make it.  Klobuchar looks like she's got a shot at one or more delegates out of Iowa as well.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.  And then, assuming we get more NV/SC polls, Steyer could certainly make it on NV/SC polling, but Bloomberg will presumably have to rely on national polling, since he's not competing in the early states.

[The Mikado]

Just took a quick check, and I think we've had zero qualifying polls from Nevada or SC since Jan. 15th.  So all we have currently for the Feb. 19th debate are qualifying *national* polls.

Of those, it looks like Biden, Sanders, and Warren all already have four or more polls at 10%+, so they've already qualified.  Bloomberg and Buttigieg each have just one poll each at 10%+, so they need three more to go.

However, Buttigieg seems pretty likely to get at least 1 delegate out of Iowa and/or NH, if polling is to be believed, so he'll presumably make it.  Klobuchar looks like she's got a shot at one or more delegates out of Iowa as well.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.  And then, assuming we get more NV/SC polls, Steyer could certainly make it on NV/SC polling, but Bloomberg will presumably have to rely on national polling, since he's not competing in the early states.

Klobuchar has a shot at making these requirements, but I still think it's more likely than not she gets 0 delegates in Iowa, which, if that happens, means she's not going to make this.

[Cinemark]

Poor Bloomgerg. He hit 10% nationally in the most recent Fox News polls but:

Monmouth: 9%
Quinnipiac: 8%
ABC: 7%
NBC: 9%

He needs a small shove to get on the debate stage. A weak Biden finish in IA and NH might do the trick.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1223330225997721600


Have Mike bought DNC yet?

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1223330225997721600


Have Mike bought DNC yet?

Its dumb because they could literally just include everyone on the stage at this point. When there were 20 candidates running, yeah we needed a threshold, but now, if you've survived to mid-Feb, you should probably be up there regardless.

They narrowed the field, now let everyone on.

[Tender Branson]

So, Biden, Sanders, Warren are already qualified for the NV debate.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar could make it via delegates in IA and/or NH - or a surge in national polling after good performances there.

Bloomberg with national polling.

Steyer with NV/SC polls.

Yang, Gabbard need a miracle in IA or NH.

Bennet and Patrick have no chance whatsoever to be in this debate.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If Bloomberg qualifies for the Debate and accepts the invitation, it probably will be a good news for Bernie/Warren (a foil) and bad for Biden/"moderates"?


https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1223337638691856385
Smart!

[Tender Branson]

If Bloomberg qualifies for the Debate and accepts the invitation ...

Bloomberg could qualify, yes, but might not accept to debate in NV or SC - because he said he will skip those states ...

[The Other Castro]

Updated February NH debate chart:





February NV debate chart:

[Mr. Morden]

The above looks reasonable.  Though of course, there's also a non-negligible chance that one or more candidates who manage to qualify for the Nevada debate nonetheless decide to drop out of the race by then.  E.g., if Klobuchar's in 5th place in Iowa (even if she does net one delegate) and 5th or worse in NH, then I'd have to think she'd likely be out before Nevada.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

I'm just as excited to see if Bennet, Delaney, or Patick will be the Jim Gilmore of this cycle.

Well, it's either Bennet or Patrick.

[The Ex-Factor]

I think they should go back to the 2016 Republican model of having a 10-person debate based on polling + kiddie table for the next cycle. It's more objective, clear-cut criteria from the start. This format where they keep unpredictably changing the criteria every month or two just comes across badly.

[Mr. Morden]

So I guess Buttigieg is definitely going to get some delegates out of Iowa to qualify for the Nevada debate, but looks like Klobuchar is still a question mark?  Does it look like her SDE # is currently above 15%, or close to it, in any of Iowa's congressional districts?

[The Other Castro]

So I guess Buttigieg is definitely going to get some delegates out of Iowa to qualify for the Nevada debate, but looks like Klobuchar is still a question mark?  Does it look like her SDE # is currently above 15%, or close to it, in any of Iowa's congressional districts?

Klobuchar is currently above 15% of SDEs in the fourth district. If that holds, she'll win one delegate.

[Mr. Morden]

So then it looks like the NH debate will have seven candidates participating, since it seems unlikely that any of the already qualified candidates are going to drop out of the race by Friday.  In principle, there's still time for Gabbard to qualify as well, but she needs *two* more polls, and that seems unlikely to happen in time.

For the Nevada debate, assuming no one drops out by then, we'll likely have at least Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar (though still a remote chance that Klobuchar doesn't make it, depending on the remaining results in IA-4), and then Bloomberg and Steyer need polling help to make it.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So, Now that the Iowa results are in, can we get a more accurate table?

[John Dule]

The fact that they eliminated the donor qualifications just to accommodate Bloomberg is such a good microcosm of the corruption we're living under.

[ElectionsGuy]

The fact that they eliminated the donor qualifications just to accommodate Bloomberg is such a good microcosm of the corruption we're living under.

I agree. On the flip side though, we could say it's unfair that he gets to just run ads everywhere without getting challenged by his competitors on a debate stage.