TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[S019]

I agree, Colin Allred would be a very decent candidate.

Not sure whether it's not too early for Hidalgo, although I believe she has great potential. Maybe she can get a House seat first and run for senate in the 2030s or perhaps 2026 during a Republican midterm. Especially if Cornyn potentially retires.

Changed the thread title now

Hidalgo has a scandal and almost lost in Harris County, she’s damaged goods now.

[S019]

I expect 2024 Tx Senate to be in line with the presidential result and I don't see who the Democrats put up that attracts people who are voting Trump or DeSantis at the same time.

Extremely likely R.

Democrats should be wary on throwing money here instead of max spending in WI and AZ.

This seat is what 8th, 9th, most likely to flip next cycle?   

At this point, Democrats do have a better chance in Texas than in Ohio or West Virginia.

[S019]

A "Texas Monthly" article suggests a number of celebrety candidates for the Democrats. Some are absurd, though Wikipedia now lists actress Eva Longoria as potential candidate. I find that interesting, though my preference would lean towards Alred.

Texas Democrats: It’s Time for a Celebrity Candidate!

It’s worked for the GOP elsewhere, and nothing else has worked for Democrats here.

[...]

Eva Longoria

The former Desperate Housewives star and Corpus Christi native is a traditional Democrat who has become a political power player in recent years, recruiting and fund-raising for candidates both in Texas and nationally. She’s close with the Castro brothers—she developed a never-completed television series based on the family’s story—and didn’t rule out a future run for office when asked in 2020. She’s smart as heck (she earned her master’s degree in Chicano studies while simultaneously starring on Housewives). She’d be a massive fund-raiser. She’s got enviable name ID among voters and nonvoters alike. Honestly, Texas Democrats should be begging her to run for Senate in 2024.

[...]

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/should-texas-democrats-turn-to-celebrities/

Joe Rogan would never win a Democratic primary and including him is incredibly stupid (not that he’d ever run).

[S019]

Texas is such an electoral handjob for Democrats. It's always almost there but it never quite gets the result we're looking for.

They hit a ceiling and it seems to be getting progressively worse each cycle.

They’ll still dump 50 million here for no reason and the end result will be the same. Better to win where you actually can.

There is absolutely no evidence that they’ve hit a ceiling and also where else are they supposed to spend? West Virginia is gone, Ohio is getting there, and Montana is still an uphill battle.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1616624307949420547?s=20&t=fnxIZOM...
Here's 2020 Pres to 2022 Gov. Beto ran slightly ahead of Biden in greater Austin, roughly in line with Biden in San Antonio, and slightly behind Biden in Houston and Dallas.

This is very interesting and there are some other Tweets this user posted that show reason for optimism. The current Democratic coalition in TX is not really built well for a Democratic midterm election, so it makes sense, but it is still shocking to see turnout differential shift a race so much.

[S019]

I think well-off areas in Houston and in Dallas have to be treated differently politically. The Park Cities and northern Dallas County in general are still quite Republican. The Memorial Villages are really an outlier in Houston, West University Place, Bellaire (which should really count as wealthy and not middle class) and the parts of Houston surrounding them are very well off and pretty Democratic (though these areas obviously voted for Romney, and had a Republican State Representative until 2020)

[S019]

I think well-off areas in Houston and in Dallas have to be treated differently politically. The Park Cities and northern Dallas County in general are still quite Republican. The Memorial Villages are really an outlier in Houston, West University Place, Bellaire (which should really count as wealthy and not middle class) and the parts of Houston surrounding them are very well off and pretty Democratic (though these areas obviously voted for Romney, and had a Republican State Representative until 2020)

Isn't Bellaire an obvious analogue with the wealthy and (nowadays) solidly Democratic parts of Dallas just east of the Park Cities, extending to Lakewood?

And Dallas north of the Park Cities, while certainly including some Trump precincts, is really not that Republican at all, even in the heavily white parts.

I think so, but I wouldn't necessarily say those areas are "middle class." Also I'm not as familiar with Dallas County political geography, so I'm not sure if they're as ancestrally Republican as Bellaire/WUP.

[S019]

Hot Take- If Trump is not the nominee, the GOP nominee for President will outperform Cruz by at least 9 points

You think another Republican would win Texas by double digits? I think the days of double digit GOP presidential wins in Texas are over. Cronyn only won by 10 points against someone pretty underfunded.

Abbott actually did worse than Cornyn is several metropolitan counties and that was with pretty terrible D turnout as has been noted elsewhere. (CNN's exit poll had the electorate at Trump+9 and the final result was Abbott+11)