TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is Safe R ANYWAYS

It's a 303 map with wave insurance but there can be split voting in OH and MT S, it's very hard to break the 304 map especially in TX

I am hoping we can make up some ground in MO to get to 51 especially since Manchin is losing , Kander almost won in 2016

[Spectator]

Notice how Cruz has been underwater ever since the snow storm Cancun trip. His approvals are much worse now compared to what they were in October 2018.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-trend-0

[SnowLabrador]

Notice how Cruz has been underwater ever since the snow storm Cancun trip. His approvals are much worse now compared to what they were in October 2018.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-trend-0

So was Ron Johnson, in a less red state than Texas. And Johnson won. Approval ratings don't mean s**t for Senators.

[Sir Mohamed]

Notice how Cruz has been underwater ever since the snow storm Cancun trip. His approvals are much worse now compared to what they were in October 2018.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-trend-0

It's certainly encouraging for Dems, though approval ratings are less significant these days than a state's partisan lean. While TX isn't as red as KY at the federal level, atrocious approval ratings didn't stop McTurtleman from handily winning reelection. Cruz obviously isn't going to win by the double digits, though I'd still consider him favored.

[Spectator]

Notice how Cruz has been underwater ever since the snow storm Cancun trip. His approvals are much worse now compared to what they were in October 2018.

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-job-approval-trend-0

So was Ron Johnson, in a less red state than Texas. And Johnson won. Approval ratings don't mean s**t for Senators.

His low approval rating was the reason WI-Sen ended up so close in the first place LOL. Although if you're predicting a Cruz win here, then this looks like a likely flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't even know whom the nominees are in FL or TX there are several blks running so when there is a clear front runner and it's not Allred we will see whom is gonna win right now it appears to be John Love but Zachary Manning is yet to officially announced there is gonna be a blk nominee because of DALLAS

Just like in FL and Emerson has Biden 3 pts down Boswell appears to be nominee Bernie has endorsed Boswell he hasn't endorsed anyone in TX and he is close to Kunce and Brown , Bernie

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's have targets in MO, FL and TX just like RS have targets in OH, MT and WV this is the same R party that didn't beat a single D inc S in 20/22 they failed in NV, GA and AZ and users still think they are gonna win all these seats

Users keep going by the same Approvals that were wrong last time we still have to VOTE

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1648663207626645504

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bye Cruz

[Spectator]

A Hispanic Democrat that represents a large swath of the border is probably the best option

[Pollster]

The party went hard after Vicente Gonzalez here but he didn't bite - good to see that they didn't give up on the "Hispanic Democrat from the border" strategy as a result.

[Spectator]

The party went hard after Vicente Gonzalez here but he didn't bite - good to see that they didn't give up on the "Hispanic Democrat from the border" strategy as a result.

Probably the best profile for a Democrat hoping to outpace Biden

[CookieDamage]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Dems would be silly to waste a chance to compete for a senate seat in a Dem-trending state with an unpopular Senator

[OneJ]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

[Spectator]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

The main reason it’s dumb is that there’s a solid case to be made that TX-Sen is more likely to go Democrat than either MT-Sen or OH-Sen, and like you said, it’s the only real pickup opportunity for the DSCC.

Plus a Democrat win in the Senate race, even if Trump narrowly took the state at the presidential level, squarely puts the state on the board for 2028 and going forward.

[2016]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

The main reason it’s dumb is that there’s a solid case to be made that TX-Sen is more likely to go Democrat than either MT-Sen or OH-Sen, and like you said, it’s the only real pickup opportunity for the DSCC.

Plus a Democrat win in the Senate race, even if Trump narrowly took the state at the presidential level, squarely puts the state on the board for 2028 and going forward.

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

[Spectator]

Gutierrez would need something like this:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

The main reason it’s dumb is that there’s a solid case to be made that TX-Sen is more likely to go Democrat than either MT-Sen or OH-Sen, and like you said, it’s the only real pickup opportunity for the DSCC.

Plus a Democrat win in the Senate race, even if Trump narrowly took the state at the presidential level, squarely puts the state on the board for 2028 and going forward.

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

You said DESANTIS and Cameron we're going to win it's called the blk vote Oz, Laxalt, Masters, Walker lost their 5 pt lead

Beshear is up 9% on Cameron and Biden is leading Trump and DeSantis by 5


Biden is at 50% in Rassy polls it's over when inc is at 50 just like Beshear has a 62% Approvals,it's wave insurance and Reeves isn't at 50% he is at 46 like Kotek and Cruz

[GALeftist]

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

This person will look you dead in the eyes and unflinchingly tell you that liberals live in a bubble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

This person will look you dead in the eyes and unflinchingly tell you that liberals live in a bubble.

Waves happened in end of Eday cycle not beginning that's why Presley has a chance Reeves is under 50 like Cruz is and Hawley can lose too because Kunce is a Kander candidate


How did Johnson and Vance overcome I deficits in 22 Ryan and Barnes were lead pre IAN it was tye October surprise IAN that boosted RS narrow lead in H all of a sudden they won NY seats please they are going to lose in 24

Obama was polling like Biden in 2012 and Sandy bump,  I am expecting one for Ds since DeSantis is losing without Tsunami IAN


Red states like MO and OH and TX have Blks and brown skinned people too that's why Obama, Carter, Clinton won TX, MO, OH, there is a NAACP boycott and no Barber in IA and FL but he goes to SC and NC and GA that's why in a 53/47 SC can flip like IN did in 2008 we aren't living in a bubble , you predicted NV wrong I predicted wrong too but I over predicted not under

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users keep forgetting we are running against Trump not DeSantis and we have to run against someone DeSantis has a 45 unfav Trump has a 63 Biden will scrutinize both next yr Biden isn't I'm scrutinize campaign mode he is in fundraiser campaign mode there is no real D primary so olse stop saying a wave isn't inevitable

It's a 303 5o)47 Eday , Romney and McCain got 47 percent but if it's a 53/47 like Obama and Biden gotten 2008/12  OH, NC and TX flips for 52)48 S or 53/47 with WV the PVI will reflect the S number and H will go D

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

The main reason it’s dumb is that there’s a solid case to be made that TX-Sen is more likely to go Democrat than either MT-Sen or OH-Sen, and like you said, it’s the only real pickup opportunity for the DSCC.

Plus a Democrat win in the Senate race, even if Trump narrowly took the state at the presidential level, squarely puts the state on the board for 2028 and going forward.

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

He nearly lost Texas as a Republican. Texas may not be there just yet for the Democrats but Cruz is the most likely person to fall through the floor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said WV is gone that gives Ds 50 seats and the PVI in 2008/12/2o RS got 47 to Ds 50 if it's 52)48 S which will mimic the PVI we net TX and MO but 2016 like a lot of Conserv don't understand the blk vote we aren't thed majority but liberal white men, white women and Latinos can make up 5 percent and KY and MS Govs are so close, Reeves only won by 5 last time too, Blks can make up 5 percent that's why Cameron, is losing to Beshear he is losing the blk vote like Oz, Laxalt, Masters and Walker did

Vance and Johnson got lucky like NY RS and NJ R Kean when they won barely on DeSantis IAN BUMP, ESPECIALLYJohnson whom won by 1 is Doomed in 2028

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm not too beat up about Allred being out either. I never thought Democrats had much of a chance here yet barring a Cruz-O'Rourke rematch if Beto hadn't run for President and Governor.

I still think Democrats' best strategy is to go all-in on defense and pray that they somehow don't lose more than one seat, especially among the Trump state Senators.

Well I have to remind you that this is the only realistic opportunity for a pickup for the Democrats, so giving up on this race would be a bad idea and there are plenty of other reasons why it'd be bad to pass this up.

The main reason it’s dumb is that there’s a solid case to be made that TX-Sen is more likely to go Democrat than either MT-Sen or OH-Sen, and like you said, it’s the only real pickup opportunity for the DSCC.

Plus a Democrat win in the Senate race, even if Trump narrowly took the state at the presidential level, squarely puts the state on the board for 2028 and going forward.

Ted Cruz is not that unpopular like these Democrats here on Atlas are claiming.

So with 16 months left until the election; Dems should not bother trying to flip a seat in a southern state that's trending their way, where they badly need to lay down some party infrastructure and which represents its only reasonable Senate pickup because the Senator doesn't seem all that unpopular?

Where have I heard that before in the last few years?