NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[Badger]

According to the NYT's neighborhood results map, 98% of the vote is reported. Scrolling over the neighborhoods to see where the remaining outstanding votes are offers some hope for Thompson.

In DBD's favor, only 84% of Carroll Garden--which as someone pointed out, is the area he represented in City Council--is in, and he's dominating with over a 55% share so far (and Thompson running a weak 3rd, fwiw).

Van Cordtland Village in northern Bronx has a similar share in, where DeBlasio currently matches his citywide total of 40.2%. There are a number of neighborhoods with over 90% reported, and although he's leading in almost all, there are a number he's falling short of 40% (e.g. Richmond Hill--he's leading with 97% in, but with only a 33.6% share). Still, it appears there are more such neighborhoods where he's substantially enough over 40% (e.g. Morningside Heights, Dumbo) to probably make a net percentage gain from where he currently stands, though the cumulative aid from VCV and these mostly-reported neighborhoods combined will likely be minimal.

From there, things start to look brighter for Thompson. The worst "offenders" for outstanding votes are a strip of neighborhoods from Washington Heights (South) running east across the river to East Tremont (Highbridge, Mount Hope and East/West Concourse). They have anywhere from 78% to only 53% reported according to the map. DeBlasio is probably still narrowly beating Thompson in the total vote of these combined 5 neighborhoods, but he's only reaching the mid to high 30's, percentage-wise.

If the reported trends continue, Carroll Gardens and the other mostly reported neighborhoods won't be enough to keep his vote % from dropping when those (relatively) Thompson-friendly neighborhoods fully report. Considering how close the margin is, it may very well be enough to ultimately drop DeBlasio below 40%.

Again, this is assuming the numbers on the NYT's neighborhood map is correct, and keep in mind their precinct map has numerous obvious errors (like Cedrico getting over 97% of the vote in an 1100+ vote precinct, etc.).

EDIT: Believe it or not, the map's listing of some of these neighborhood's reported vote in is actually being updated regularly. The reported vote for some of the Bronx neighborhoods I mentioned just jumped several percentage points. DeBlasio maintains at 40.2% overall for now....

There are also at least 19,000 absentee votes that haven't been counted at all and won't be until Monday.  De Blasio may do better or worse than his citywide average in the absentees.  They don't always fall the same way as the election day vote.  There also should be some provisional ballots which may or may not be counted in the end.

But I think de Blasio will end up with over 40% and avoid a runoff.  He's at 40.24% with 99% in.  There simply weren't many votes in the missing Bronx precincts (where de Blasio performed poorly) compared with the other precincts that were out.  And assuming there are 19,000 good absentees, de Blasio would only need to win 32% of them to stay above 40%.  If all 47,000 outstanding absentees are returned and Democratic and valid,  he'd need to win 37% of them.  So the range is 32-37%, with the likely needed result on the lower end because not all absentees will be returned, Democratic and vaild.

Update: Per same map, 99% of vote in and BDB up to 40.3%. Washington Heights South still only 78% reported with DeBlasio at 38.1%, but the Bronx neighborhoods across the river I'd mentioned before are all now fully reported. More importantly, Van Cortlandt Village and Carroll Gardens still only 84% in. The diminishing number of 90+% reporting neighborhoods are at this point probably a wash or MAYBE a SLIGHT disadvantage to BDB staying above 40%.

Looking grimmer for Thompson.

[DINGO Joe]

the Atlantic has a little article on the glitch precincts from election night and their impact on the percentages.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/09/mystery-1001-mayoral-votes-comedian-bronx/69298/

BDB's increase to 40.33 is probably due more to corrections than due to the final precincts trickling in.  It does look like one major glitch still hasn't been fixed (the one noted above by Flo), so I'm guessing he'll be around 40.4 when they start counting the absentees.

[cinyc]

WCBS-TV is reporting that there are 54,000 paper ballots from Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island to be opened, an unknown number from Queens, and 14,000 absentees in so far.  I don't know why the absentee total is down from others' 19,000 estimate.

[Torie]

WCBS-TV is reporting that there are 54,000 paper ballots from Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island to be opened, an unknown number from Queens, and 14,000 absentees in so far.  I don't know why the absentee total is down from others' 19,000 estimate.

Yes, this is why it is all up in the air. Plus the paper ballot voters, and in particular, the absentee voters, may have a different voting pattern from the balance of the ballots. It is amazing how low the turnout is. That tends to be the way with New York state primaries. Few care about them much for some reason.

[cinyc]

Yes, this is why it is all up in the air. Plus the paper ballot voters, and in particular, the absentee voters, may have a different voting pattern from the balance of the ballots. It is amazing how low the turnout is. That tends to be the way with New York state primaries. Few care about them much for some reason.

The New York Times estimates Democratic turnout at 22% of enrolled voters and Republican turnout at 12%.  However, this was computed without taking into account the relatively high number of paper ballots, which should increase turnout a point or two.

My guess is that using the ancient lever machines lead to more provisional ballots.  Those machines tend to break down and the New York City Board of Elections isn't known for its competency, especially in delivering machines to polling places on time.  In fact, the lever machines are so bad one apparent loser in a state Assembly special election is calling for an investigation because at least four machines didn't have enough working levers for all of the Assembly candidates.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I consider myself at least partially responsible for DeBlasio's victory: I drunk dialed an ex, who lives in NYC, and told her to vote for DeBlasio. You're welcome, New York.

[Keystone Phil]

I consider myself at least partially responsible for DeBlasio's victory: I drunk dialed an ex, who lives in NYC, and told her to vote for DeBlasio. You're welcome, New York.

You drunk dialed an ex. And you think that person voted the way you suggested?

[greenforest32]

WCBS-TV is reporting that there are 54,000 paper ballots from Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island to be opened, an unknown number from Queens, and 14,000 absentees in so far.  I don't know why the absentee total is down from others' 19,000 estimate.

Yes, this is why it is all up in the air. Plus the paper ballot voters, and in particular, the absentee voters, may have a different voting pattern from the balance of the ballots. It is amazing how low the turnout is. That tends to be the way with New York state primaries. Few care about them much for some reason.

That's what happens with off-year elections and their primaries. They really should link things like this and NJ/VA-Gov to the presidential cycle. Having regular positions scheduled to an election time when 60% to 75% of the electorate won't show up is a back-handed way to keep things in 'order' or focus.

[Keystone Phil]

WCBS-TV is reporting that there are 54,000 paper ballots from Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island to be opened, an unknown number from Queens, and 14,000 absentees in so far.  I don't know why the absentee total is down from others' 19,000 estimate.

Yes, this is why it is all up in the air. Plus the paper ballot voters, and in particular, the absentee voters, may have a different voting pattern from the balance of the ballots. It is amazing how low the turnout is. That tends to be the way with New York state primaries. Few care about them much for some reason.

That's what happens with off-year elections and their primaries. They really should link things like this and NJ/VA-Gov to the presidential cycle. Having regular positions scheduled to an election time when 60% to 75% of the electorate won't show up is a back-handed way to keep things in 'order' or focus.

Or people can get informed and learn that there is no such thing as an "off year" election.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/13/bloomberg-nyc-mayor-candidate/2809225/

From here on out Bloomberg will remain Neutral...

Let's see what happens when DeBlasio clinches the Dems nomination... will he change his tune?

[Badger]

WCBS-TV is reporting that there are 54,000 paper ballots from Manhattan, Brooklyn, the Bronx and Staten Island to be opened, an unknown number from Queens, and 14,000 absentees in so far.  I don't know why the absentee total is down from others' 19,000 estimate.

Yes, this is why it is all up in the air. Plus the paper ballot voters, and in particular, the absentee voters, may have a different voting pattern from the balance of the ballots. It is amazing how low the turnout is. That tends to be the way with New York state primaries. Few care about them much for some reason.

While this MAY be true with absentess--since as Cinyc noted NY is an for-cause absentee state, thus absentee voters will be disproportionately older (though I'm not sure what effect that might play on this race--I don't see why that would be the case for paper ballots. If the paper ballots are cast by election day voters unlucky enough to encounter a non-functioning mechanical booth, then their ballots should be largely consistent (albeit not necessary exact) with other counts ballots from that neighborhood.

The real key is determining what neighborhoods had a disproportionate share of paper ballots still needing counted. Anyone have any dirt on that?

[Eraserhead]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/13/bloomberg-nyc-mayor-candidate/2809225/

From here on out Bloomberg will remain Neutral...

Let's see what happens when DeBlasio clinches the Dems nomination... will he change his tune?

Isn't Lhota on the record calling Bloomberg an "idiot"? I think he'll probably check out of this thing now (although I imagine most of his people will jump on the doomed Lhota train).

[PolitiJunkie]

Guys, Bill de Blasio is the Democratic nominee. I know you Pubs and right-wing Democrats have a hard time grappling with that, but it's what happened, so stop theorizing about these bizarre scenarios in which de Blasio ends up at 39.99% and Bill Thompson miraculously swoops in and wins the runoff, sparing the city from a stoopid librul and fostering a victory for apologetic liberalism. You guys are literally the only 8 people in the country espousing these Waiting-for-Godot-esque theories, so just stop, go take a bike ride or go skydiving or something.

[PolitiJunkie]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/13/bloomberg-nyc-mayor-candidate/2809225/

From here on out Bloomberg will remain Neutral...

Let's see what happens when DeBlasio clinches the Dems nomination... will he change his tune?

Isn't Lhota on the record calling Bloomberg an "idiot"? I think he'll probably check out of this thing now (although I imagine most of his people will jump on the doomed Lhota train).

Yes, it's the one good thing Joe Lohta has said in this campaign (and perhaps in his adult life).

[bedstuy]

Guys, Bill de Blasio is the Democratic nominee. I know you Pubs and right-wing Democrats have a hard time grappling with that, but it's what happened, so stop theorizing about these bizarre scenarios in which de Blasio ends up at 39.99% and Bill Thompson miraculously swoops in and wins the runoff, sparing the city from a stoopid librul and fostering a victory for apologetic liberalism. You guys are literally the only 8 people in the country espousing these Waiting-for-Godot-esque theories, so just stop, go take a bike ride or go skydiving or something.

I think it's pretty clear that De Blasio is a near lock to be the next mayor.  We can start retooling the mayor's office for a 6'5" liberal, lowering the office chair and replacing the bottled water with soda. 

How much taller than Michael Bloomberg is Bill De Blasio?  1 foot?

[PolitiJunkie]

Guys, Bill de Blasio is the Democratic nominee. I know you Pubs and right-wing Democrats have a hard time grappling with that, but it's what happened, so stop theorizing about these bizarre scenarios in which de Blasio ends up at 39.99% and Bill Thompson miraculously swoops in and wins the runoff, sparing the city from a stoopid librul and fostering a victory for apologetic liberalism. You guys are literally the only 8 people in the country espousing these Waiting-for-Godot-esque theories, so just stop, go take a bike ride or go skydiving or something.

I think it's pretty clear that De Blasio is a near lock to be the next mayor.  We can start retooling the mayor's office for a 6'5" liberal, lowering the office chair and replacing the bottled water with soda. 

How much taller than Michael Bloomberg is Bill De Blasio?  1 foot?

9 Inches. Bloomberg is 5'8; de Blasio is 6'5.

[bedstuy]

Guys, Bill de Blasio is the Democratic nominee. I know you Pubs and right-wing Democrats have a hard time grappling with that, but it's what happened, so stop theorizing about these bizarre scenarios in which de Blasio ends up at 39.99% and Bill Thompson miraculously swoops in and wins the runoff, sparing the city from a stoopid librul and fostering a victory for apologetic liberalism. You guys are literally the only 8 people in the country espousing these Waiting-for-Godot-esque theories, so just stop, go take a bike ride or go skydiving or something.

I think it's pretty clear that De Blasio is a near lock to be the next mayor.  We can start retooling the mayor's office for a 6'5" liberal, lowering the office chair and replacing the bottled water with soda. 

How much taller than Michael Bloomberg is Bill De Blasio?  1 foot?

9 Inches. Bloomberg is 5'8; de Blasio is 6'5.

Michael Bloomberg is not 5'8".  More like 5'6", 5'7 on a good day.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Guys, Bill de Blasio is the Democratic nominee. I know you Pubs and right-wing Democrats have a hard time grappling with that, but it's what happened, so stop theorizing about these bizarre scenarios in which de Blasio ends up at 39.99% and Bill Thompson miraculously swoops in and wins the runoff, sparing the city from a stoopid librul and fostering a victory for apologetic liberalism. You guys are literally the only 8 people in the country espousing these Waiting-for-Godot-esque theories, so just stop, go take a bike ride or go skydiving or something.

Lhota has a far better chance against De Blasio than Thompson. Short of Liu or Weiner, this was the best thing that could have happened to him.

These next two months are going to be a bare-knuckle brawl between two visions for the city.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Lhota has a far better chance against De Blasio than Thompson.

Sure, in the same sense that you have a better chance of being run over by a car than of winning the lottery.

[PolitiJunkie]

Lhota has a far better chance against De Blasio than Thompson.

Sure, in the same sense that you have a better chance of being run over by a car than of winning the lottery.

Exactly. I have a far better chance of playing third base for the Mets than I do of meeting God.

[badgate]

This discussion of De Blasio vs Bloomberg's height has me picturing Gandalf standing in Bilbo's hobbit-hole.

[Torie]

Guys, Bill de Blasio is the Democratic nominee. I know you Pubs and right-wing Democrats have a hard time grappling with that, but it's what happened, so stop theorizing about these bizarre scenarios in which de Blasio ends up at 39.99% and Bill Thompson miraculously swoops in and wins the runoff, sparing the city from a stoopid librul and fostering a victory for apologetic liberalism. You guys are literally the only 8 people in the country espousing these Waiting-for-Godot-esque theories, so just stop, go take a bike ride or go skydiving or something.

Yes, this particular Pub is psychologically unable to grapple wit the idea of a guy he never heard of until last week who chats up how much he cares about the have nots becoming mayor of a liberal city, with liberal voters, and is worried sick about the fate of the Fruited Plain over it all.

[cinyc]

Guys, Bill de Blasio is the Democratic nominee. I know you Pubs and right-wing Democrats have a hard time grappling with that, but it's what happened, so stop theorizing about these bizarre scenarios in which de Blasio ends up at 39.99% and Bill Thompson miraculously swoops in and wins the runoff, sparing the city from a stoopid librul and fostering a victory for apologetic liberalism. You guys are literally the only 8 people in the country espousing these Waiting-for-Godot-esque theories, so just stop, go take a bike ride or go skydiving or something.

This is a political forum.  We focus on election results, especially in close elections, regardless of the candidates or parties involved.  This is a close election in that de Blasio is just barely over the 40% threshhold needed to avoid a runoff.  How the paper ballots will break is a necessary part of the analysis and speculation.

Speaking of which, according to the NYC Board of Elections, as of 6:00PM yesterday, there were up to 78,491 paper ballots to be counted.  21,240 of those are valid absentees.  10,462 are emergency ballots cast due to machine breakdown, which will definitely be counted.  45,814 are affidavit ballots, which are usually cast due to a voter not being on the rolls in a particular polling place.  Those are likely subject to challenge.  975 are BMD ballots, cast by the blind and visually impaired, which should count.  Of course, not all ballots were cast in the Democratic race.
 
The paper ballots are skewed heavily toward Brooklyn (38% vs 32% of the election day Democratic vote), with over 30,000 ballots from there.  The most absentees are in from Manhattan (5,942) , Queens (5,419) and Brooklyn (5,143), with Staten Island punching well above its weight.  The Staten Island absentees might skew Republican, though.

[Badger]

"BMD ballots", Cinyc?

[cinyc]

"BMD ballots", Cinyc?

Ballot Marking Device ballots, cast by the blind, visually impaired and the like.  I updated the text of the original post.