Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The biolabs talking points have returned: https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-losing-because-ukraine-104546288.html

Duma MPs have released a report claiming Ukrainian soldiers were subjected to secret experiments in which they were infected with diseases such as tuberculosis and gangrene, then given American drugs, so that they could lose independent consciousness and become hyper-aggressive.

To its credit, the Kommersant article cites a Russian scientist who  is brave enough to claim it’s exaggerated, but the MPs go onto suggest the US could be behind bird flu, swine flu, coronavirus and monkeypox.

That is as credible as the KGB rumor that the CIA created AIDS in a lab in the 1980s.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I can understand Iran, but I would not have expected Turkey as an allie of Russia

[rc18]

I can understand Iran, but I would not have expected Turkey as an allie of Russia

You mean the Turkey that ruined its relationship with the US by buying a Russian S-400 SAM system?

Turkey plays both sides to try and strong-arm concessions from either.

[Woody]

Lavrov says Russia's aims in Ukraine now go beyond Donbas:

LONDON, July 20 (Reuters) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Moscow's military "tasks" in Ukraine now went beyond the eastern Donbas region, in the clearest acknowledgment yet that its war goals have expanded in the past five months.

"Now the geography is different, it's far from being just the DPR and LPR, it's also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and a number of other territories," he said, referring to territories well beyond the Donbas that Russian forces have wholly or partly seized.

"This process is continuing logically and persistently," he said, adding that Russia might need to push even deeper.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lavrov-says-russias-objectives-ukraine-now-go-beyond-donbas-2022-07-20/

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1549711941299470336
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1549710327859892224

[CumbrianLefty]

Good luck with that, given the losses they are taking.

[Person Man]

Good luck with that, given the losses they are taking.

Maybe they are OK with it even though they will lose probably another 40,000 men taking half of Ukraine and another 20,000 occupying it. That’s basically like 15% of their entire army and if account those who didn’t die but are now disabled, you are probably talking about a third of their army. Maybe they know what they are doing but this is really stupid. What the hell do I know, though?

[CumbrianLefty]

There are also the material losses HIMARS and the like are now inflicting.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good luck with that, given the losses they are taking.

Maybe they are OK with it even though they will lose probably another 40,000 men taking half of Ukraine and another 20,000 occupying it. That’s basically like 15% of their entire army and if account those who didn’t die but are now disabled, you are probably talking about a third of their army. Maybe they know what they are doing but this is really stupid. What the hell do I know, though?

Putler doesn't care as long as he gets something he wants. Unlike democratically elected leaders with a free press at home, he has little to fear even with such losses. For him it's still a net gain rather than going out with practically nothing accomplished at all.

I'm sure the original Russian plan was to take over all of Ukraine; now since it didn't work, the plan has seemingly changed to annex wide parts of the east and the south, to cut off the remainder of Ukraine from the Black Sea.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Actual footage from Ukrainian biolabs:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngdsRt31sIc

[Person Man]

Good luck with that, given the losses they are taking.

Maybe they are OK with it even though they will lose probably another 40,000 men taking half of Ukraine and another 20,000 occupying it. That’s basically like 15% of their entire army and if account those who didn’t die but are now disabled, you are probably talking about a third of their army. Maybe they know what they are doing but this is really stupid. What the hell do I know, though?

Putler doesn't care as long as he gets something he wants. Unlike democratically elected leaders with a free press at home, he has little to fear even with such losses. For him it's still a net gain rather than going out with practically nothing accomplished at all.

I'm sure the original Russian plan was to take over all of Ukraine; now since it didn't work, the plan has seemingly changed to annex wide parts of the east and the south, to cut off the remainder of Ukraine from the Black Sea.

Whatever happens, Russia can't take Odessa.

[jaichind]

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-energy-deal/31950165.html

"Gazprom, Iran Sign Tentative Energy Deal Worth $40 Billion"

It seems Russia will help Iran develop its natural gas reserves with the implied goal of
a) Russian gas -> PRC
b) Iranian gas -> India

I think the Russian plans for building pipes with taking this into account and focus on more pipe expansion to PRC while Iran will prioritize building pipes to India.

[The Dowager Mod]

BRRRRRRRRT!!
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184

[bilaps]

Good luck with that, given the losses they are taking.

Somebody needs refreshing their WW2 lessons.

[bilaps]

Ukrainians are now targeting Energodar nuclear plant with drones. Imagine if it would be other way around.

[Person Man]

Good luck with that, given the losses they are taking.

Somebody needs refreshing their WW2 lessons.

That was 80 years ago.

[YPestis25]

Lol is Bilaps just explicitly rooting for Russia?

[ꙮ]

Lol is Bilaps just explicitly rooting for Russia?

No, he "dislikes both sides" and is just "calling out Western hypocrisy" and adding a dose of "realism" to the thread.

In all seriousness: Yes, he is.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

BRRRRRRRRT!!
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184

It would probably be the least useful donor jet for reasons gone into elsewhere, but the US Air Force has been looking for any excuse to get rid of them. The A-10 close support planes are an interesting example of MIC grift; they’ve been known to be a waste of money for decades by the Air Force, but the Army lobbies to have the Air Force keep them anyway because it means part of the Air Force’s budget goes exclusively (but inefficiently) to helping the Army. They are helped in this expensive act of trolling by Congresscritters who ignore evidence when lobbyists deploy the “Brrrt!” card.

[DINGO Joe]

Good luck with that, given the losses they are taking.

Somebody needs refreshing their WW2 lessons.

That was 80 years ago.

It's a good lesson as Russia outlasted the Nazis thanks to lend-lease and the US just outright giving them military equipment.  It's just this time the Russians are the Nazis and guess who is the beneficiary of lend-lease.  Ukraine will ultimately blow up 6 decades of Rascist military equipment.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-energy-deal/31950165.html

"Gazprom, Iran Sign Tentative Energy Deal Worth $40 Billion"

It seems Russia will help Iran develop its natural gas reserves with the implied goal of
a) Russian gas -> PRC
b) Iranian gas -> India

I think the Russian plans for building pipes with taking this into account and focus on more pipe expansion to PRC while Iran will prioritize building pipes to India.

Given that Russia can't even restore Nord Stream without a Canadian part I wouldn't hold my breath on this one. 

[DINGO Joe]

Lazurne is quite far from the front lines, 69km from the nearest town under Ukrainian control Oleksandrivka, Kherson Oblast.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1549470246259548162?s=20&t=sw-dnl...

This was a very rare valuable piece of equipment they took out.  The kind of thing Russia can't build now.

[Person Man]

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-russia-energy-deal/31950165.html

"Gazprom, Iran Sign Tentative Energy Deal Worth $40 Billion"

It seems Russia will help Iran develop its natural gas reserves with the implied goal of
a) Russian gas -> PRC
b) Iranian gas -> India

I think the Russian plans for building pipes with taking this into account and focus on more pipe expansion to PRC while Iran will prioritize building pipes to India.

Given that Russia can't even restore Nord Stream without a Canadian part I wouldn't hold my breath on this one. 

You mean deplorables’ military equipment?

[NOVA Green]

Lazurne is quite far from the front lines, 69km from the nearest town under Ukrainian control Oleksandrivka, Kherson Oblast.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1549470246259548162?s=20&t=sw-dnl...

This was a very rare valuable piece of equipment they took out.  The kind of thing Russia can't build now.

Indeed it does appear that Ukraine has been increasing the tempo in Kherson Province in recent days, although naturally to what extent they are prepared to launch a full-scale counter-attack there at this point is another question altogether.

NYT from earlier today:

A critical bridge shelled. A fighter jet shot out of the sky. Ammunition depots destroyed. A cluster of soldiers attacked.

Ukraine’s intensifying attacks on Russian forces in just the last 48 hours in Kherson Province are raising a question: Is the ground being laid for a broad counteroffensive?

Ukraine used a HIMARS artillery weapon, newly supplied by the United States, to hit the Antonivsky bridge in Kherson on Tuesday, an adviser to country’s interior minister said. The bridge has been the main transit route for Russian supplies coming in from Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. Eleven more missiles hit the bridge on Wednesday, according to the deputy head of the pro-Russia administration in Kherson.

The bridge is a “key vulnerability for Russian forces,” a British intelligence report said.

Ukraine’s armed forces also said on Wednesday that they had blown up a Russian radar system in Kherson using missiles fired from more than 60 miles away — a day after Ukraine’s air force command said it had shot down a Russian fighter jet above agricultural land in Kherson and struck warehouses that are crucial for resupplying Russia’s forces west of the Dnipro River.

Ukrainian forces also struck a cluster of Russian forces, an adviser to the head of the province’s military administration said on Tuesday, adding that casualties were still being assessed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kherson.html

The Economist from about a week ago:

“Russian forward ammunition dumps are quite possibly the most unsafe places in any war zone,” explained an American army handbook published in 2016. Munitions were not stored safely, it noted, and many dated from the Soviet era, close to their expiry dates, creating “a tinderbox ready to explode”. “Priority targeting of these areas will cause a serious logistics strain on the Russian system,” it concluded. Ukrainian generals are now putting that theory to the test.

On July 11th a Russian ammunition depot in Nova Kakhovka in southern Ukraine exploded in spectacular fashion. Satellite images showed that the entire facility vanished overnight. It is thought to be the latest victim of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (himars), which America began sending to Ukraine in late June.

America has provided eight launchers and on July 8th said it would send four more. Each one carries a pod of six gps-guided missiles accurate up to 84km or so—nearly three times the range of the howitzers sent earlier. American officials had been wary of providing more of these weapons until it was clear that Ukraine would use them effectively. Although they look superficially similar to Soviet-era rocket launchers, which rain down warheads over a large area, they are much more precise and need to be used judiciously to conserve ammunition.

So far, Ukraine appears to be passing that test. The Nova Kakhovka facility was thought to have been the 19th such depot to have gone up in flames since June 27th, according to a tally by Kyle Glen, an open-source analyst. A 20th followed in Luhansk city on July 12th. A strike on a command post in Kherson province on July 10th is said to have killed many senior officers, including the major-general in charge of the 22nd army corps.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/07/13/ukraines-new-rockets-are-wreaking-havoc-on-russias-army

[NOVA Green]

Russian forced subscription apparently heating up in Russian Occupied Ukrainian region of the Donbass, per The Guardian today (Non-Paywall):

Pro-Russia separatist forces have stepped up the forced conscription of men – including Ukrainian passport holders – in occupied areas of the Donbas region, amid mounting evidence of the scale of losses on the Russian side.

According to credible evidence from the region, forced conscription – already a feature of the Russian-backed separatists’ rule before the Kremlin’s invasion on 24 February – appeared to have picked up again in June, with checkpoints and patrols, some reportedly involving Chechen fighters allied to the Kremlin, on the lookout for men to recruit.

In one video filmed in late June, a woman in Makeevka, in the Donbas region, documented her efforts to prevent officials from the war commissariat from dragging her husband into a car to take him to the conscription office.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/20/pro-russian-separatists-step-up-forced-conscription-as-losses-mount

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile per The Washington Post from earlier today:

Senior U.S. officials acknowledged Wednesday that the United States and its allies are considering whether to provide Ukraine with new fighter jets and the training needed to operate them, a move that would dramatically expand Western involvement in the war with Russia.

Brown said there are several possibilities, including American-made fighters or some made in Europe. Options include the Gripen fighter made in Sweden, the Rafale made in France, and the Eurofighter Typhoon, which is built by a consortium of companies in several countries.

The prospect of training Ukrainian pilots to operate new aircraft already has traction in Congress; last week the House voted to dedicate $100 million to the endeavor as part of its version of the annual defense authorization bill. Thus far, however, Pentagon leaders have declined to endorse such a plan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/20/ukraine-fighter-jets/