I actually think this is still a bit conservative. The NPR poll in the 50 most competitive districts found a 17 point swing from the 2004 result (Republicans won by 12%) to now (Democrats lead by 5%). A 17 point swing would indicate about a 30 seat shift.
The only problem with this is that the NPR numbers are total crapola. Republicans did not win these 50 "most competitive" seats by 12%.
In these 50 "most competitive" seats, the numbers were as follows (correcting for 3rd party adjustments):
Bush 53.3%
Kerry 46.7%
Margin: 6.6%
This shift, added with the slight Dem bias I think the poll has looking at the internals, make the shift more in the range of 15-25 seats, as opposed to 20-30 seats, respectfully. Still enough to shift control.
Poll
