Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Mike88]

100.00% of precincts counted:

33.1% PP, 136 (+47)
31.7% PSOE, 122 (+2)
12.4% Vox, 33 (-19)
12.3% Sumar, 31 (-7)
  1.9% ERC, 7 (-6)
  1.6% Junts, 7 (-1)
  1.4% Bildu, 6 (+1)
  1.1% PNV, 5 (-1)
  0.6% BNG, 1 (nc)
  0.5% CC, 1 (nc)
  0.2% UPN, 1 (nc)
  3.2% Others
 
70.4% Turnout (+0.5)

How is that parties gained 50 seats but losses only equal 35? Where did the other 15 come from?

Citizens who got more than 10 seats last time didn't run. Teruel Existe lost their seat.

Yep, C's didn't ran and lost all 10 seats as did PRC. Teruel Existe lost their seat and CUP lost their 2 seats also.

[Oryxslayer]

100.00% of precincts counted:

33.1% PP, 136 (+47)
31.7% PSOE, 122 (+2)
12.4% Vox, 33 (-19)
12.3% Sumar, 31 (-7)
  1.9% ERC, 7 (-6)
  1.6% Junts, 7 (-1)
  1.4% Bildu, 6 (+1)
  1.1% PNV, 5 (-1)
  0.6% BNG, 1 (nc)
  0.5% CC, 1 (nc)
  0.2% UPN, 1 (nc)
  3.2% Others
 
70.4% Turnout (+0.5)

How is that parties gained 50 seats but losses only equal 35? Where did the other 15 come from?

-10 from C's
- 1 from Teruel Existe
- 1 from PRC (decisivly lost the locals and didn't run)
- 2 from CUP (abstention)
- 1 from the CC, which ran previously with other parties, who are the ones who techically lost the seat
- 1 from UPN which got two seats in the NA+ alliance last time, though thats a lateral move since the seat just went PP through other means.

[PSOL]

PCTE got a little over 17,200 votes while FO got 46,000 votes somehow. Many communist lists did abstain like PCPE and PCEO, but how FO became the best winner among them is odd.

I expect any communist list to improve in the next few elections, a good amount of left wing voters are sick of UP reimagined and PSOE.

[Velasco]

PCTE got a little over 17,200 votes while FO got 46,000 votes somehow. Many communist lists did abstain like PCPE and PCEO, but how FO became the best winner among them is odd.

I expect any communist list to improve in the next few elections, a good amount of left wing voters are sick of UP reimagined and PSOE.

Frente Obrero is a red/brown party (we call it "rojipardo"). One of my acquaintances in the PCPE (for your information,
I have met their leader) told me that they expelled FO representatives from some of their events because they are "nazis". Oddly enough the PCPE ran in coalition with a pro-independence group the Canary Islands (they got some
 0.2% running together). The FO leader Roberto Vaquero hates being labelled as rojipardo, but rhe man is basically a reactionary who hates migrants,and feminists. A bully who wears tatoos and leads a weird Stalin cult sect, or perhaps he's a booty camp instructor or the leader of a paramilitary group. Vaquero studied at Complutense University and Pablo Iglesias was one of his professors. Later Vaquero and his followers have been notorious for harassing people like Yolanda Díaz, Iñigo Errejón and some Podemos representatives.  Beautiful people

[Harlow]

PCTE got a little over 17,200 votes while FO got 46,000 votes somehow. Many communist lists did abstain like PCPE and PCEO, but how FO became the best winner among them is odd.

I expect any communist list to improve in the next few elections, a good amount of left wing voters are sick of UP reimagined and PSOE.

Frente Obrero is a red/brown party (we call it "rojipardo"). One of my acquaintances in the PCPE (for your information,
I have met their leader) told me that they expelled FO representatives from some of their events because they are "nazis". Oddly enough the PCPE ran in coalition with a pro-independence group the Canary Islands (they got some
 0.2% running together). The FO leader Roberto Vaquero hates being labelled as rojipardo, but rhe man is basically a reactionary who hates migrants,and feminists. A bully who wears tatoos and leads a weird Stalin cult sect, or perhaps he's a booty camp instructor or leads a paramilitary group. Vaquero studied at Complutense University and Pablo Iglesias was one of his professors. Later Vaquero and his followers have been notorious for harassing people like Yolanda Díaz, Iñigo Errejón and some Podemos representatives.  Beautiful people

Now that would be quite something.

[rob in cal]

On issues unrelated to the National question/ autonomy etc, do any of the regional parties have potential right wing leanings outside of the Canaries

[Lumine]

I guess it's time to prepare for the rivers of ink about an Ayuso-led coup against Feijoo.

Personally I think he'll be very much in place if there's a second election, but it is going to be a few very awkward months for him.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

On issues unrelated to the National question/ autonomy etc, do any of the regional parties have potential right wing leanings outside of the Canaries

Junts is - in broad strokes - the right wing of Catalan nationalism, while ERC is the left. PNV is basically centrist and has worked with both the PP and PSOE in the past, although that might change going forward.

[mileslunn]

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Was looking at the municipality results map.

Dozon (Pontevedra, Galicia) 2019 results in parenthesis
PP 70.12% (63.19%)
PSOE 15.15% (17.22%)

Also in Galicia, Viana de Bolo (Ourense) is 54-27 PP, while on the opposite side of the Galicia-Castilla y Leon border, Pias (Zamora) is 62-24 PSOE. These two municipalities voted 42-31 PP and 61-25 PSOE in 2019, respectively.

I wonder what a swing map by municipality might look like.

[Zinneke]

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

[rob in cal]

Any good examples in small districts with few seats where either Sumar or Vox voters did a good job of tactical voting and went for PP or PSOE instead?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is tactical voting meaningful in a proportional system ?

[Velasco]

I guess it's time to prepare for the rivers of ink about an Ayuso-led coup against Feijoo.

Personally I think he'll be very much in place if there's a second election, but it is going to be a few very awkward months for him.

Pretty much. Ayuso has a strong base of support in Madrid, including the media based there. Additionally she's more clear about her willingness to deal with Vox than Feijóo and other PP leaders. However, Spain is not like Madrid and not all the PP 'barons' are like Ayuso. In case there's a coup orchestrated by Ayuso supporters, the PP would definitely follow the path of the US Republican Party

On issues unrelated to the National question/ autonomy etc, do any of the regional parties have potential right wing leanings outside of the Canaries

Junts is - in broad strokes - the right wing of Catalan nationalism, while ERC is the left. PNV is basically centrist and has worked with both the PP and PSOE in the past, although that might change going forward.

UPN is the most right-wing regionalist/nationalist party in parliament,  followed by CC, Junts and the PNV (basically a 'technocratic' centrist catch-all party)  

CC spokespersons say they would not support a PP-VOX coalition, leaving the UPN as the only potential ally

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

Junts is rather unpredictable,  but even Puigdemont must be aware of the message sent by Catalan voters. This is the worst result for Catalan nationalist parties in general elections since 1979. Of course many PSC votes are borrowed, but that's telling something about the way Sánchez approached the Catalan question

Pedro Sánchez has been the perfect underdog in these elections ("Perro Sánchez" 🐶), on the other hand. He will be presiding the EU's Spanish semester as acting PM. That would be quite something in case of a repeat election

[Logical]

Feijoo also got a decent "favorite son" bump in Galicia, netting PP 3 seats from PSOE. If he gets rudely pushed out I doubt Ayuso can replicate that.

[Zinneke]

I guess it's time to prepare for the rivers of ink about an Ayuso-led coup against Feijoo.

Personally I think he'll be very much in place if there's a second election, but it is going to be a few very awkward months for him.

Pretty much. Ayuso has a strong base of support in Madrid,
including the media based there. Additionally she's more clear about her willingness to deal with Vox than Feijóo and other PP leaders. However, Spain is not like Madrid and not all the PP 'barons' are like Ayuso. In case there's a coup orchestrated by Ayuso supporters, the PP would definitely follow the path of the US Republican Party.

Yes, and there is room for resentment of Ayuso trying to turn Spain into a city-state with her tax haven style policies in the periphery, enough to potentially harm PP in precisely the areas that really helped them this election. Madrid is seen as a brain drain magnet.

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

Junts is rather unpredictable,  but even Puigdemont must be aware of the message sent by Catalan voters. This is the worst result for Catalan nationalist parties in general elections since 1979. Of course many PSC votes are borrowed, but that's telling something about the way Sánchez approached the Catalan question

I really don't get this logic from you and DFB : its quite clear to me that the Catalan nationalist parties will not just bend over unlike last time precisely because they are on the back foot electorally but are kingmakers. They have no interest in the "overall message" the Catalan people sent this election (which as I said is not necessarily a ringing endorsement of Sanchez either), they have an interest in the next regional election which they regard as the "true" election and voice of the Catalan people over the direction of Catalonia.

All a compromising stance would do is enable PSC and Sumar to campaign next regional election on their narrative that the Procès was a waste and that the votes for Catalanist parties to govern in the Generalitat is a wasted vote. Its electoral suicide for ERC and especially Junts to be seen as just accessories to the Madrid-based regime. I agree with you that Junts have many ex-Convergents in their ranks that are unpredictable, but they also now have civil society influence of people who literally only care about independence and nothing else, and who work all their lives for it. The lesson these people will take from this result is that compromise reduces their vote share.

[Bacon King]

Is tactical voting meaningful in a proportional system ?

in a system where most constituencies elect just 3, 4, or 5 members? certainly.

[Skye]

Man that PSC overperformance was something else. Didn't expect anything like it.

[Velasco]

I have never been the best predicting election results,  but I was somehow spotted on here (I mean the outcome,  not the debate). The campaign had ups and downs, with Pedro Sánchez reaching his nadir in the face-to-face debate he lost against Feijóo (the PP leader was advised by Miguel Angel Rodríguez,  the Ayuso's trumpist pigmalion). The PSOE campaign gained traction the following week, while Feijóo began to accumulate blunder after blunder. There was an underdog effect undetected by some pollsters. Thankfully Narciso Michavila was wrong

The official campaign has started now and I'm getting the impression that we're heading to a complex inconclusive result, because there are signs pointing to some recovery in the left. I think the counter-offensive began with former PM Zapatero in a brave interview with Carlos Herrera at the right-wing COPE, followed by multiple media appearances of Pedro Sánchez playing in opposite field (Ana Rosa, Pablo Motos). Sánchez made it out and was convincing enough, so many people is wondering why he didn't come out before to explain things and counter the loads of garbage and fake news thrown against the government. Sánchez seems ro be in good shape to confront Feijóo in the only face-to-face debate consented by the PP. The Sumar campaign is not getting too much traction yet, but according to polls the Yolanda Díaz platform is not far away from the third place. I don't think the eventual recovery of the left will turn the result into a victory, but I'm getting the impression the right reached its ceilling and hopefully the likelihood of a PP-Vox majority is diminishing. However, looking at the projected results in this morning's 40 dB tracking, the scenario looks very uncertain. On the one hand, the PP-Vox rightwing bloc is falling short from a majority getting 169 seats. On the other hand, the PSOE-Sumar progressive alliance is getting 150 seats and would be unable to reach a majority with the usual allies (ERC, Bildu, PNV...). Junts could be placed in the position of kingmaker and the Catalan pro-independence party led by Puigdemont from the exile might demand a price impossible to pay for its support.

The trend seems to be that PP and PSOE will gather the "useful vote" at the expense of other parties, particularly nationalists and regionalists. The competition between Vox and Sumar for the third place could be decisive in some places. As for the nationalists, ERC and PNV seem to be decreasing while Bildu looks strong and Junts might increase. A few other regionalists appear to have chances of winning seats: BNG, CC, UPN and Teruel Existe

[Velasco]

I really don't get this logic from you and DFB : its quite clear to me that the Catalan nationalist parties will not just bend over unlike last time precisely because they are on the back foot electorally but are kingmakers. They have no interest in the "overall message" the Catalan people sent this election (which as I said is not necessarily a ringing endorsement of Sanchez either), they have an interest in the next regional election which they regard as the "true" election and voice of the Catalan people over the direction of Catalonia.

All a compromising stance would do is enable PSC and Sumar to campaign next regional election on their narrative that the Procès was a waste and that the votes for Catalanist parties to govern in the Generalitat is a wasted vote. Its electoral suicide for ERC and especially Junts to be seen as just accessories to the Madrid-based regime. I agree with you that Junts have many ex-Convergents in their ranks that are unpredictable, but they also now have civil society influence of people who literally only care about independence and nothing else, and who work all their lives for it. The lesson these people will take from this result is that compromise reduces their vote share.

EH Bildu leader Arnaldo Otegi got the message, though. I recommend you to read his post-election statements

[Velasco]

Man that PSC overperformance was something else. Didn't expect anything like it.

I expected a more moderate increase, nothing like this. Some pollsters like GAD3 clearly undestimated the PSC, but I think there was some poll predicting 17 or 18 seats for the catalan socialists

[Zinneke]

Some maps of the major cities :

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-24/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales-del-23-j-en-cada-distrito-de-madrid-barcelona-valencia-sevilla-y-otras-grandes-ciudades.html

we need to wait for the street by street maps though

PP winning Sarria-San Gervasi makes me revise my statement on how the regional politics impacts the national in Catalunya, it might be that the sheer volume of the Sanchez vs Feijoo narrative in the media clouded out the intricacies of the Catalan political scene.

[icc]

Map of the change in PSOE vote. Annoyingly I think El País treated null / blank votes a little differently in the two elections, but it still gives you the basic picture.

In terms of the main patterns:
- Remarkably good performance in Cataluña, explained by nationalist voters both abstaining and switching directly to the PSE.
- Also a strong night in the Basque Country. This is less obviously explicable, but it's probable that the 'Vox card' worked well in the non-Castilian areas.
- Good results in Valencia and the Balearics are probably due to far-left unity. Popular regionalists ran alone last time (or with Más Madrid), whereas this time they joined with Sumar. It looks like many of their voters went to PSOE instead.
- The big increase in Cantabria is down to the left leaning regionalists not defending their seat, while in Melilla the collapse of Coalición por Melilla (a Muslim party hit recently by corruption scandals) benefitted the left.
- A strong increase in the Canaries is matched by a poor result there for Sumar, but the reasons for this aren't entirely obvious to me.
- A poor night in Galicia, where Feijóo got a favoured son vote (also worth noting that Sumar leader Díaz is Gallega, but this doesn't appear to have shown up in the results), and the left leaning Galician nationalists have improved, though possibly by less than expected.
- Drift to the right in Andalucía continues to be a bit of a problem for the Socialists.
- The good result in Teruel can be explained by the fall of Teruel Existe, while the big fall in Soria is due to the intervention of Soria Ya.

[Mike88]

What are chances of either side managing to form a government?  I cannot see either getting 176 so only way either Feijoo or Sanchez form government is if they can get some of the regionalist parties to abstain.  So any chance of government being formed or is a second election pretty much a foregone conclusion?

The talking heads agree that Sanchez + Sumar has the clearest path via several regionalist parties voting with him and an abstention of Junts.

If Junts vote against both PP-led government and PSOE-led government, we head for new elections.

The reason it is unclear what will happen is because Junts have radicalised their stance Vs the whole Spanish system massively and will likely demand Puigdemont has his charges dropped, but also, strategically, because Junts basically lives off the independence issue, they need to keep that issue somewhat alive. And yet also, they probably do not want a new election as voter tiredness in Catalonia could be a factor. So it's a very tricky, long protracted kabuki dance that is ahead. Likely solved with plain old pork barrel politics. Hence why "Junts Per Cash" is trending.

Junts is rather unpredictable,  but even Puigdemont must be aware of the message sent by Catalan voters. This is the worst result for Catalan nationalist parties in general elections since 1979. Of course many PSC votes are borrowed, but that's telling something about the way Sánchez approached the Catalan question

Pedro Sánchez has been the perfect underdog in these elections ("Perro Sánchez" 🐶), on the other hand. He will be presiding the EU's Spanish semester as acting PM. That would be quite something in case of a repeat election

Indeed, the Catalan parties took a big pounding. Even Junts lost a bit of ground, but, I'm not sure if Puigdemont's ego will get the message Velasco.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Eish... awkward. Feijóo was giving his speech, and the crowd started calling for Ayuso.

I would also much rather Cruella De Vil spoke than the most boring man on Earth if for some reason I were at a PP rally, to be honest.