2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So what's going on here now?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So what's going on here now?

Everyone is assuming the commision amendment will pass the state(pretty reasonable assumption)
so we could have anything from my 5 D-6R map to a bipartisan 6-1-4 map with Luria getting the swing.

Has it been modified to keep it from being a de facto R gerrymander?  Also, why are the Democrats even allowing a vote on this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So what's going on here now?

Everyone is assuming the commision amendment will pass the state(pretty reasonable assumption)
so we could have anything from my 5 D-6R map to a bipartisan 6-1-4 map with Luria getting the swing.

Has it been modified to keep it from being a de facto R gerrymander?  Also, why are the Democrats even allowing a vote on this

I think there were some modifcations but its tough to modify an amendemnt itself, I think it mostly put racial limits? but anyway my map would keep 2 AA districts and is pretty similar to the current map anyway so it would probably pass the test.  My map is the extreme R scenario where the VA supreme court basically chooses a republican to be the map drawer.

Again, why are the Dems even allowing a vote on this blatant power grab?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At the way things are going, It is pretty easy to make an 8-3 gerrymander of Virginia right now. They could shove the 3 republican seats on the westernmost parts of the state and and divide the 8 democratic seats this way: 3 in the NoVa, and 1 with a portion of NoVa with the tidewater region. 2 in the hampton roads area and 1 each for Richmond and Albemarle/Charlottesville area.

They could have quite easily, but the redistricting commision makes that impossible now, the best is a 5-3-3 map(tossups being VA beach and a 4th NOVA+Exurban district and the richmond white suburban)

Can't Northam veto the bill?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At the way things are going, It is pretty easy to make an 8-3 gerrymander of Virginia right now. They could shove the 3 republican seats on the westernmost parts of the state and and divide the 8 democratic seats this way: 3 in the NoVa, and 1 with a portion of NoVa with the tidewater region. 2 in the hampton roads area and 1 each for Richmond and Albemarle/Charlottesville area.

They could have quite easily, but the redistricting commision makes that impossible now, the best is a 5-3-3 map(tossups being VA beach and a 4th NOVA+Exurban district and the richmond white suburban)

Can't Northam veto the bill?

Its a constitutional amendment and I am actually making an assumption that it passes on the ballot this year..

Hope springs eternal

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

Can’t they just strike it down and do a complete redraw once the VA SC inevitably flips?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

Can’t they just strike it down and do a complete redraw once the VA SC inevitably flips?

Takes till 2028 IIRc or even 2030. Also Rs can try to gerrymander the legislature  and hope for a GOp governor down the line to replace the old justices.
I guess coz charlottesville is already split they take that seat for the state senate and then make a fair district for roanake.

IIRC, we only need one more Justice to flip the VA SC and one of the Republicans is termed out in March 2024.  The Democrats could seek emergency relief and full redraws of the state legislative maps and certainly the congressional map.  I mean, there's only so much that can be done to us in NOVA and once you add in the rest of the state, the Republicans really need to run the board even with a favorable map.  The State Senate could get dicey, but it's also a little trickier to gerrymander the non-NOVA seats to give the Republicans the kind of help they'd need.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/comments/plan/323/1
A citizen map but the name of the submitter is Tom Davis.
Is it former congressman Davis?
It is the 5 1 5 map by the way with va02 being r as possible while still fair. Only northam +1

Yep, the former Chairman of the NRCC

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

Who is on first

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the Tom Davis map.

Pretty sure that’s his gerrymander, yes

Yeah but is it actually Tom Davis the congressman or just some other dude named Tom Davis?

Who is on first

https://www.virginiaredistricting.org/legdistricting/virginia/comment_links

Here we go. There's an attachment and it is the former congressman.

With that confirmed, looks like he drew CD7 to potentially facilitate his own comeback. Now incumbents and the most GOP parts of every NOVA county.

He seems too old at 73.

Evidently he disagrees

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here is a link to the VA CD map now law in DRA:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5298ec04-4c21-4270-8071-8ddc0b3631f1

I was interested in how much was in play be moving the tiny county in population (7,348) of Rappahannock out of VA-07 and into VA-10. The answer is 60 basis points in margin Biden over Trump in VA-07, in a pretty strong lean Dem seat either way at the moment. That was enough for the Masters to change the lines. They both were  really sweating it out, line by line, precinct by precinct, and balancing, and they both did it with honesty and skill, and tried as best they could to be nonpartisan. And both have enhanced their reputations - a lot - in my view.

By drawing a Republican gerrymander in a Safe Democratic state?