2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

am currently not sober and made this beautiful, by putting zero thought in it, 9-2 map

Please judge it mercilessly



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6524e592-5a07-4536-a68c-8de52097ec34

This is probably 7-4 in a neutral year.

With how Loudoun is trending? I don't see it.

two-term Governor T-Mac agrees

Actually, the trendlines in Loudoun are pretty clear. Even in a perfect storm for them, Rs lost Loudoun by 12. Need I point out the margin Rs won Loudoun in 2009?
"muh T-Mac" is something of a lazy response, tbh.

The point is that we have no idea if Loudoun will trend further left or if it's maxed out. Recent elections if anything suggest it's probably maxed out. In general, I find it pretty idiotic how many posters here will just make maps that only work under wild assumptions of previous decades' swings to continue indefinitely. We have no f**king clue what trends will be like in the next decade. It's not like people in 2010 knew what the trends in that decade would look like either, or else they would have drawn very different maps.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

The Virginia Beach CD meanwhile has a very high D floor, due to rural blacks. If Ds aren't being wiped out in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, they probably are favored here.
It's not a full 9-2. But it probably delivers that outcome in a neutral year. Meanwhile, in an R wave, they could win even a majority in the House delegation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I mean, the CD map is pretty bad (although tbf not as bad as the previous decade's), but it's really bizarre to focus on that when there are far more blatant gerrymanders that are ripe for challenge (chiefly OH and NC).

[Mr.Phips]

I mean, the CD map is pretty bad (although tbf not as bad as the previous decade's), but it's really bizarre to focus on that when there are far more blatant gerrymanders that are ripe for challenge (chiefly OH and NC).

Elias is wasting his time here.  He should be focused almost solely on OH and NC at this point, which are by far the most egregious Republican gerrymanders.

[Mr. Illini]

Any Republican like OP who complains about Democratic gerrymandering (or theoretical gerrymandering in VA) should be ignored honestly. It's not in good faith.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

[Mr.Phips]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

The new VA-10 voted for Hillary by 1 and Biden by 9.

[MT Treasurer]

Clown. These people won't stop until every state adopts authoritarian Maryland-style maps.

No, they want fair maps! We definitely could have gotten those if only we had supported the very independent, very nonpartisan commissions proposed in H.R. 1. Too bad, now we’ll get a Democratic gerrymander.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Any Republican like OP who complains about Democratic gerrymandering (or theoretical gerrymandering in VA) should be ignored honestly. It's not in good faith.

Oh, please. It's a perfectly fair stance to recognize that Democrats have systematically rigged the process in their favor in many states (see: California), and to respond accordingly, while still opposing gerrymandering in general.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

The new VA-10 voted for Hillary by 1 and Biden by 9.

...and that's not what we're talking about.

It would be really nice if people could actually read the whole f**king exchange before talking out of their asses.

[beaver2.0]

That map isn't even that bad by 2021 standards.  The worst district is that Richmond one.  Now every state should come up with something like this.

Also, I don't care that much about the incumbents being moved about.  Redistricting shouldn't be about helping or hurting them.

[Torie]

That map isn't even that bad by 2021 standards.  The worst district is that Richmond one.  Now every state should come up with something like this.

Also, I don't care that much about the incumbents being moved about.  Redistricting shouldn't be about helping or hurting them.

No the "bitch" was not that the Masters hate incumbents, it is that the twin males hate woman. Interesting their report made a point that they deliberate avoided learning where the incumbents lived, and did not know as of the date they signed their report. That is probably why they did not sign the report under penalty of perjury, because they did actually know where the women lived, and lied about it.

[Skill and Chance]

Theory: Should Miyares go for VA-02?  He's from VA Beach.  It sounds crazy because it could be construed as a step down from AG, but he was clearly the weakest of the 3 (barely beating a scandalized incumbent) and there's no way he's winning a statewide primary against Sears, or Youngkin for that matter.  Whereas he could hold this seat for the decade and then make his move for governor the next time a Dem wins the WH. 

[OBD]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1469145353303830529

Clown. These people won't stop until every state adopts authoritarian Maryland-style maps.

Based!

[lfromnj]

Theory: Should Miyares go for VA-02?  He's from VA Beach.  It sounds crazy because it could be construed as a step down from AG, but he was clearly the weakest of the 3 (barely beating a scandalized incumbent) and there's no way he's winning a statewide primary against Sears, or Youngkin for that matter.  Whereas he could hold this seat for the decade and then make his move for governor the next time a Dem wins the WH. 

I mean the seat would fall in any D wave, secondly is the fact that Jen Kiggans is already there and a solid recruit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

[Oryxslayer]

Most of the negative comments so far on the public page concern the split of Albemarle/Charlottesville, so if there are edits it will be here. And most are asking for inclusion in the 10th.

[GALeftist]

Clown. These people won't stop until every state adopts authoritarian Maryland-style maps.

No, they want fair maps! We definitely could have gotten those if only we had supported the very independent, very nonpartisan commissions proposed in H.R. 1. Too bad, now we’ll get a Democratic gerrymander.

Do you have any theories as to why Republicans have not proposed or supported any federal legislation for fair redistricting at all, IndyRep? Because the fact is if they proposed it Democrats would almost certainly support it even if it was a compromise of some sort and even independently of the other stuff in HR1, and yet federal action on gerrymandering of any kind is a nonstarter for Republicans in Congress. The only rational explanations in my mind are A. they think that the status quo is the best possible option and there's nothing which the government to do to make it better, which lol, or B. they correctly recognize that gerrymandering is on net a positive for the Republican Party and don't want to ameliorate an institution which advantages them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

[OBD]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.

[Oryxslayer]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.

Which for reference, is about as democratic VA-10 was in 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.

Which for reference, is about as democratic VA-10 was in 2016.

Ye the proposed VA-10 in the new draft map should start out as at least lean D in 2022 if it stays as is. It basically voted in line with VA but is prolly more reacative that your average dostroct

[Sol]

It should be pretty trivial to keep Albemarle/Charlottesville whole--but it's a bit challenging with the configuration the masters have made to put it in a NoVa. Charlottesville in the broader context of map quality fits best with the southside, even if that isn't what Dem hacks would like.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's more to the map than what is done with Albemarle. In context of the rest of the map, I would favor keeping the county split as it is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.

Which for reference, is about as democratic VA-10 was in 2016.

Ye the proposed VA-10 in the new draft map should start out as at least lean D in 2022 if it stays as is. It basically voted in line with VA but is prolly more reacative that your average dostroct

Holy f**king sh*t. Three people in a row who don't bother to read the whole exchange, misunderstand what it's actually about, and just come in hot and ready to "correct" me with something irrelevant to what I was talking about. After I had already corrected someone else for doing the exact same thing.

This forum has become such a f**king clown show. Unbelievable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?