Texas State House and Senate Races - 2008

[jimrtex]

In response to an earlier thread today. 

I've left off the quoting, so I can intersperese my comments.

House (open seats marked with * - presently 79-71 GOP)
DEM
1. HD-17*(Cook - retiring)

This is a rural area west of Houston.  Cook was going to retire in 2004 and there were even two candidates who filed in the Democratic primary, before he decided to continue.  In 2006, it was within a percentage point, and the GOP challenger from then is running again.

2. HD-97 (Barrett - won runoff in December 2007)

This is in SW Fort Worth and SW Tarrant County.   In the 2007 special election, 6 Republicans split 68.5% of the vote.  The runoff was held a week before Christmas and turnout was down 42%, and Barrett squeaked through with a 4% margin.

3. HD-32 (Garcia - defeated incumbent in 2006)

This is eastern Nueces County (Corpus Christi) and counties to the northeast.  Garcia won by 2% in 2006, in a race in which a Libertarian candidate peeled off 6%,  Garcia attended Harvard law school with Barack Obama, and endorsed him in the primary.

4. HD-85 (Heflin - elected in 2006)

16 rural counties in the area between Lubbock, Abilene, San Angelo, and Midland.  This was Pete Laney's seat which Heflin squeaked through in 2006.

5. HD-11 (Hopson)

This is south of Tyler and Longview.  Hopson won by 51% in 2006.

6. HD-107 (Vaught - defeated incumbent in 2006)

Northeast Dallas.  This will be a rematch of the 2006 election.

7. HD-149 (Vo)

Far SW Houston.  Vo has been getting unfavorable publicity as a slumlord.

8. HD-47 (Bolton)

SW Austin and Travis County.  This seat was formerly held by Terry Keel, who had previously been sheriff of Travis County and was running for a seat on the Court of Criminal Appeals (Texas's supreme court for criminal cases).  His wife is running for the seat this time.

9. HD-3 (Bower) (Homer)

Red River, including Paris, Mount Pleasant, and Sulphur Springs.

10. HD-48 (Howard)

NW Austin.  NW Travis County.  Howard won a special election in 2006, and then the GOP candidate withdrew before the general election.

I'd say that the GOP has a good shot in 2 of the races, and perhaps 6 others if this were 2004.

GOP
1. HD-78* (Haggerty - retiring defeated in the primary)

Northern El Paso.  Haggerty had generally been unopposed, but that was partly because he often would side with the Democrats.  The Republican candidate received a credible 42% of the vote for the El Paso senate seat.

2. HD-52* (Krusee - defeated in primary retired) 

Williamson County, including the areas immediately north of Austin.   The GOP primary drew 4 candidates.

3. HD-101* (Latham - defeated in primary)

Mesquite and E.Dallas County.  A curiousity is that the Republican incumbent has been beaten in two consecutive elections.  The Democrats did not contest the seat in either 2004 or 2006.

4. HD-102 (Goolsby)

North Dallas and South Garland.  Goolsby won with 52% in 2006.

5. HD-96 (Zedler)

Southern Tarrant County including parts of Crowley and Mansfield.  53% in 2006.

6. HD-112* (Hill - retiring)

Richardson and NW Garland.  Should be fairly easy to hold.

7. HD-144* (Talton - ran for TX-22)

Southern Pasadena and SE Houston.

8. HD-133 (Murphy - elected in 2006)

West Houston.

9. HD-19 (Hamilton)

Northern Orange County, Hardin and Newton County.

10. Tough call here, because I think two of the other trendy DFW choices really are borderline-not competitive, no matter how much *hype* they get - I'll go with an odd one...
HD-55* (Delisi - retiring)

Larger share of Bell County, centered on Temple.  No way.

Projection
Too early yet.

I'd say perhaps about 4 seats overall.  There was much more action in the primaries where 9 incumbents (5 GOP and 4 Democrat were defeated).

[jimrtex]

HD-112 (Hill) is up there above the others because this is a classic DFW suburb where Republican margins are declining as minorities move in and the Dem challenger is a good one.  Of course, it's still 60-40 GOP, probably slightly more than that, but an open seat must (in my mind) be treated more seriously than say HD-133 (Murphy), which is slightly less GOP, but there's an incumbent (albeit one-term) or HD-19 (Hamilton) who has held off strong challengers by double-digits time and time again (and I don't believe this one is as strong)

I really don't think there is any chance in HD-19.  The district was carefully drawn, and Hamilton's margin has been going up, and neither Obama or Noriega are going to to push the Democratic turnout.
It's small town rural enough, that people know who their representative is. 

HD-133 has a lot of apartments, and no one is going to know who their state representative is, and Obama and Noriega may give a boost in straight ticket voting.

HD-112 is much more single family, with people having chosen the area because of its schools.  I think 133 is much more susceptible to a switch.

[jimrtex]

I made one slight change - due to my comments above and noticing that I missed one HD on the Dem side that should at least be mentioned (party-switcher Kirk Englund), I have added a watch-list for seats that I think could be interesting, which includes the two DFW seats mentioned above, HD-106 (Englund) and HD-93 (Pierson), which is a 53-47, 52-48 DFW seat which the incumbent was beaten by Pierson last time and there is a fairly strong Republican running.

It's England with an 'a'.   The problem with HD-106 is that England barely won as a Republican.

[jimrtex]

Amusingly, Chris Bell is running for the Janek seat, which includes part (a fairly small part - if you examine the SD, it is everything to the east of US-59 in Harris County) of his old House CD before the state Republicans blackified it.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5887506.html

As mentioned in the article, the deadline for filing is August 29.  Two Republicans (non-office holders) have already filed.

The race will be run as a special election with no primary, and a runoff.  Straight ticket voting will not be valid.

In 2002, SD 17 overlapped with 6 CDs.

CD 22 42K (DeLay)
CD 7 29K (Culberson, unopposed so a bit low on vote)
CD 24 28K (Bell, though he lost this part of his district 45-55).
CD 9 19K (Lampson, his old district and the more easterly and Democrat part)
CD 14 10K (Paul)
CD 31 4K (Carter, his district at that time ran from Williamson to Harris County)

SD 17 overlaps 15 Texas House districts (each SD has a population of slightly less than 5 House districts).

In 2002, SD 17 was about 3% more R than the State.  In 2004 about 2% more D; in 2006 about 0-2% more D (candidates from Houston area - Radnofsky, Abbot, Dewhurst, Patterson appear to have a slight advantage - so the 2% was in the Senate race vs. KBH.  Though Kay Bailey was from LaMarque and was a TV reporter and legislator from the area, that was close to 30 years ago, and is now associated more with the DFW area).

In the 2006 gubernatorial race: Perry -0.5%, Bell +1.3%, Friedman 2.4%, Strayhorn -3.1%.

[jimrtex]

But with results interspersed.

House (open seats marked with * - presently 79-71 GOP)
DEM
1. HD-17*(Cook)

Easy pickup.   54R:43D:3L.   In 2006, Dems had only held this seat between Houston and San Antonio when Cook was talked into running for re-election at the last moment.

2. HD-97 (Barrett)

GOP regains Tarrant County seat lost in 2007 special election, when GOP forgot to show up for the runoff the week before Christmas.  In the special election, 6 Republicans had split 69% of the vote, but saw turnout drop from 12K to 5K, while Dem turnout was even.  2008: 55R:43D:2L, with turnout up almost 600% from 2007 runoff.

3. HD-32 (Garcia)

GOP regains Corpus area seat lost in 2006.  In that election, Juan Garcia had run as naval aviator (which has traditionally had a big presence in the Coastal Bend).  In the 2008 primaries, he endorsed fellow Harvard Law School classmate Barack Obama.  Naval aviator may be better resume than Ivy League lawyer in South Texas.  2008: 50R:47D:3L.

4. HD-149 (Vo)

Slumlord Hubert Vo easily holds west Houston seat 56D:44R.  He first won this seat in 2004, in an extremely narrow election which was probably decided by votes cast in the wrong district or by unqualified voters.

5. HD-107 (Vaught)

Vaught holds Dallas County seat 50D:47R:3L.  This is the 2nd election in a row where Vaught has narrowly defeated Bill Keffer, in a seat he had been unopposed in 2004.

6. HD-85 (Heflin)

Heflin holds on to sprawling West Texas seat formerly held by Pete Laney.   53D:47R.

7. HD-11 (Hopson)

Hopson wins squeaker in SE Texas.  49.27D:49.07R:1.65L, or 102 votes out of 53,000 and about 1/8 of the Libertarian vote.

8. HD-3 (Homer)

Homer holds NE Texas seat 52D:48R.

9. HD-47 (Bolton)

Bolton holds W Travis seat, 51D:49R, defeating the wife of Terry Keel who had been the elected GOP sheriff of Travis County, and also this House seat before deciding to run for a state judgeship.

10. HD-48 (Howard)

54D:42R:4L in Travis County.

Watch List: HD-93 (Pierson), HD-106 (England)

Easy holds.

GOP
1. HD-78* (Haggerty)

Dem pickup in El Paso (D52:R45:L3).   Haggerty had been beaten in the GOP primary and was not a particularly reliable vote.  The GOP had left him alone because he was in their party, and the Dems had left him alone because he voted with them much of the time.

2. HD-52* (Krusee)

Dem pickup in Williamson County 48.61D:47.42R:4.96L.  Krusee had not sought re-election.

3. HD-101* (Latham)

Dem pickup in Dallas County.  50.56D:49.43R.  Latham had been beaten in primary.

4. HD-96 (Zedler)

Dem pickup in Dallas County.  51D:47R:2L.

5. HD-102 (Goolsby)

Dem pickup in Dallas County.  53D:47R.  Goolsby probably hurt by newspaper reports of refurbishment of House member's lounge, which he had overseen as chair of House Operations committee.

6. HD-133 (Murphy)

Apparent Dem pickup in west Houston.   50.51D:49.41R

7. HD-144* (Talton)

GOP hold of seat where Talton did not seek re-election.  51R:49D.

8. HD-129 (Davis)

59R:41D.

9. HD-112* (Hill)

56R:40D:4L.  GOP hold seat where Hill did not seek re-election.

10. HD-55* (Delisi)

54R:44D:3L.  GOP hold seat where Delisi did not seek re-election.

Watch List: HD-105 (Harper-Brown), HD-108 (Branch)

Harper-Brown has 25 vote margin.  Branch has a 21% margin.

[jimrtex]

I believe Simmons was black and was put in there by St. Sen. Ron Wilson (D) to cause problems...

Just FYI - this State Senate seat is 15% black.  Of course, the folks who probably missed the special election were straight ticket voters, no doubt.  Let's see how this plays in a runoff.  The runoff date is December 16, btw.

I hadn't touched on an important issue in my previous post because I assumed too much (lazily)

Basically, Chris Bell is not liked in the black community in Houston one bit because of certain past races (mayoral/Congress).

I am curious to see how blacks react to this - I suspect they don't show, actually.

Chris Bell (white) was a city councilman in Houston, who was running for mayor in 2001, where he finished 3rd behind Lee P Brown (black) and Orlando Sanchez (Hispanic, Cuban).  Bell endorsed Brown in the runoff, and then immediately announced his candidacy for Congress, where he faced councilman Carroll Robinson (black) and 2 others in the Democratic primary for the seat vacated by Ken Bentsen (Lloyd's nephew), who was seeking the US Senate nomination.  Brown in turn (or exchange) endorsed Bell who won the Democratic primary (and runoff) and was then elected to Congress for a single term.

Carroll (pronounced keROLL) is the son of Judson Robinson, who was the first black councilman in Houston since Reconstruction.  Brown is seen as somewhat of an outsider, having first coming from Atlanta to become police chief under Kathy Whitmire; then moving on to become police commissioner in New York City, and the drug czar in Washington.  He later moved back to Houston.

In the 2001 redistricting litigation, the federal court had declined to draw a 2nd black majority district in Houston, saying that while they were sympathetic to the idea, it was not the role of the court to legislate.  In 2003, the Texas legislature did create the 2nd black majority district in the Houston area, and Al Green defeated Chris Bell in the Democratic primary (67%-31%).  At the same time Ron Wilson (black) was defeated in the Democratic primary for the House, because he was seen as being too close to the Republican leadership in the House.  In the 2007 end-of-session kerfuffle, Ron Wilson was one of the two new parliamentarians appointed by Tom Craddick after the others had resigned.

Stephanie Simmons (black) filed for the special election at the last possible minute (accompanied by Ron Wilson, who now lives in Austin).  The Bell campaign then filed suit alleging that Simmons had not lived in the district for one year (as required by the Texas Constitution).  She had in fact lived in the district for the required time, but hadn't bothered to update her registration, and admitted that she had always voted at her parent's residence.  Simmons was represented in the law suit by an attorney who typically represents Republicans, but who was apparently recommended by Wilson.  After the judge ruled against Bell, his campaign bragged that their frivolous and wasteful litigation (which the Secretary of State had to defend against) had "proved" that Simmons was really being supported by Republicans, because Wilson was practically a Republican.

Simmons was also supported by Al Edwards (black), who is making a comeback.  Edwards was sponsor of the booty bill, and was defeated in the 2006 primary by Borris Miles (black).  After Miles proved even more embarassing, Edwards defeated him in the 2008 primary.

During the special election, Wilson contributed $30,000 to Simmons' campaign, who also attracted the endorsement of Texans for Lawsuit Reform (which is an anti-plaintiff lawyers group).  Bell, of course, had most of his failed gubernatorial campaign underwritten by the trial lawyers, who are likely to also be funding his latest attempt.

[jimrtex]

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I have no clue.  Maybe so, even though it would be humorous.  The difference, of course, between SD 17 and HD 55 is that SD 17 wouldn't have been up for election this year if the incumbent hadn't vacated.

I couldn't find anything on this, so I've sent an e-mail to the SoS.  The Bell County web site has it even closer to 50% (49.99%).

Countywide, straight ticket voting was about 50% of the total vote.  HD 55 is entirely in the county, but HD 54 is a big chunk of the county as well.  I found some precinct totals, but they don't break out the early voting, which was around 70% of the vote. 

The bigger difference was that the 3rd candidate was different.  To run in the general election, you would have had to file last December or very early January.  To run in the special, you file after the special election is called.

The former representative for this district is Dianne White Delisi, who is the mother-in-law of Deirdre Delisi, who was Rick Perry's campaign manager and chief of staff.  She is now chairperson of TXDOT.

Dianne Delisi announced that she wasn't going to run for re-election, which resulted in a bitter primary won by Sheffield.  She later announced her resignation which triggered the special election.  Under Texas law, the governor can call an emergency election, or wait for a uniform election date.  There used to be four, in February, May, August, and November; but now only the May and November dates remain.  This explains the rather unusual date for a special election - and that there is no provision for combining elections.

I didn't find anything in Texas law about cancelling a runoff.  It is potentially a recount situation, because a change in the result would be disqualify a candidate from the runoff.  And the runoff can be held 45 days after the canvass, so it could be set in early January.  Sheffield is listed on the roster of House members on the Legislature web site, but so are 7 other newcomers - so it doesn't necessarily mean that he has taken office. 

The closest I could find was a provision when there is a vacancy for both the new term, and the remainder of a term.  In that case, there is only one special election.  But that would more likely occur when there had been a special election some time before the general election.  And then something happened to the winner of the general election before his term began.

[jimrtex]

To make it seem as if the district were contiguous, it also includes an uninhabited portion of Chambers County. Seems like Republican retention hopes rest on the eastern Democratic appendage not turning out.

There is a tiny strip (about a mile wide) in the southeast corner of Chambers County that is between Galveston and Jefferson County.  If it weren't included, the district wouldn't be contiguous.

[jimrtex]

Countywide, straight ticket voting was about 50% of the total vote.  HD 55 is entirely in the county, but HD 54 is a big chunk of the county as well.

Yes - Texas State House districting rules. Bell County is too large for one and too small for two districts, so one district has to be entirely in the county and the other includes smaller rural counties (Burnet and Lampasas, in this case) to make up the population balance.

About 65% of HD54 is in Bell County, mostly in Killeen.  Harker Heights and the Bell County portion of Fort Hood are in HD55.  Burnet and Lampasas aren't exactly rural.  Lampasas has spillover from Copperas Cove and Fort Hood.  Burnet is exurban Austin, with a couple of lakes - some commuters, retirees, and 2nd homes.  It is one of the faster growing counties in Texas.  Of course, it is just a matter of luck whether the counties stuck together in a house district have any real connection.  The population in Burnet is more towards the south end  nearer to Austin.

The Texas Constitution doesn't have a provision for subdividing counties for house districts.  It either provides for multiple members per county, or a single-member district made up of whole counties.  But there is an exception that let's the surplus (fraction) of a county to be treated as a whole county.  If only the Texas Constitution were relevant - Bell County would have a representative; and Bell, Burnet, and Lampasas would form another district and elect another representative.  Voters in Bell County would get two votes.  This type of floterial district is generally unconstitutional (14th Amendment Equal Protection clause). 

So to reconcile the two constitutions, the Texas Constitution is treated more as defining apportionment, where Bell, Burnet, and Lampasas are apportioned 2 representatives.  But the quota for the last representative has to be made up of fractional surpluses.  You couldn't give counties entitled to 0.7, 0.7, and 0.6 representative 2 representatives collectively.  Then the apportionment unit is divided into single member districts.  But this also has to respect how the the last representative was apportioned based on the fractional members.

In Central Texas, McLennan, Bell, Williamson, and Travis counties have population equivalent to more than one district.  Hays, Comal, and Guadeloupe have substantial fractions.  As it turns out, none of them can be combined North/South along I-35, which would be logical.  So instead they have to be extended eastward or westward into less populated areas - but tending to split these rural areas between districts.  You could legally add counties to the east and west of a large county, but the fractional part of the county would have to also provide the connection.

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Yeah, that would seem to apply only if somebody died or resigned between their re-election (or election) and the end of the term. As Julian Dixon (Black Representative from LA) did in December 2000.[/quote]
I got a response back from the SoS.  Mr. Murphey, the runnerup, withdrew.  The provision for handling this is the section on withdrawal by candidates rather than in the section on vacancies or special elections.

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There is the equivalent provision for party primary runoffs (172.059).

[jimrtex]

To make it seem as if the district were contiguous, it also includes an uninhabited portion of Chambers County. Seems like Republican retention hopes rest on the eastern Democratic appendage not turning out.

There is a tiny strip (about a mile wide) in the southeast corner of Chambers County that is between Galveston and Jefferson County.  If it weren't included, the district wouldn't be contiguous.

Probably the islands east of Galveston. As the Chambers County portion doesn't have any registered voters, the district is not contiguous in my book. (Just as Riker's Island is not contiguous with north Manhattan in NY's 15th Congressional district, inclusion of uninhabited northwest Queens docklands or no.)

Rip that page out, then.

Galveston County consists of 4 parts:   (1) Mainland where Texas City, La Marque, Dickinson, and League City are; (2) Galveston Island, including the city of Galveston at its northern tip; (3) Bolivar Peninsula; and (4) parts of Galveston Bay: (a) West Bay - which is north of Galveston Island, but not shown as blue on the map.  The center of channel roughly follows the turquoise line which also shows the senate district boundary where it is not coincident with a county line.  The triangular tip of Galveston County at the extreme SW corner of the map marks San Luis Pass, the second entrance to the bay, and why Galveston Island is an Island; (b) East Bay - which is north of the Bolivar Peninsula.  The county line between Galveston and Chambers County is on the northern shore of East Bay; and (c) Lower Galveston Bay, the area south of the dotted grey line between San Leon and Smith Point.

Chambers County consists of 2 parts: (1) Upper Galveston Bay, including Trinity Bay, which is the eastern part; and (2) an area on the mainland, generally north of East Bay.  Most of the population is in the north, closer to I-10 which runs across the northern edge of the county.  The land area in the NC part of the map, just east of Baytown, is connected north of Trinity Bay.  Chambers County also includes a narrow panhandle between Galveston and Jefferson counties (and extends into the Gulf Of Mexico - not shown on this map).



Zooming in.  High Island is not an island, but rather a town built on top of a salt dome (the Pikes Peak of the Gulf Coast).  It is in Galveston Island, and is considered part of the Bolivar Peninsula.

Texas 87, High Island to Sabine Pass  Texas 87 runs along the coast, just behind the sand dunes.  It is blocked just past High Island because it washed away in a hurricane.  The coast in Jefferson County is mostly in a wildlife refuge, and there would be problems moving the highway back further from the coast.  Texas 87 has a small stretch in the city of Galveston, is connected by a ferry to the Bolivar Peninsula and then runs eastward along the coast to Sabine Pass and Port Arthur, and then about halfway up the eastern edge of the state.   So now, to travel from Galveston to Port Arthur, you turn north at High Point, and then connect into an east west highway into Port Arthur.

The Intracoastal Waterway (a barge canal), is cut through the back edge of the Bolvar Peninsula.  At the eastern end of East Bay it follows a bayou which forms the border between Galveston and Chambers counties.  It then follows the coast about 3 miles inland.

The part of Chambers County that is in SD 17 is between the intracoastal waterway and the coast and is not accessible except from the east or west.



The mustard color delimits census block boundaries.  There is a census block between TX-87 and the coast, and another in the Gulf of Mexico.  The Intracoastal Waterway (roughly 50 feet wide) is itself a census block.



Texas Coast, post Ike.

High Island as an island.  The road junction in the bottom of the picture is where a curve has been added for turning from TX-87 to go north.



Galveston-Chambers county line.



Chambers County coast line.  The bump is TX-87.



Chambers-Jefferson county Line.

 

[jimrtex]

One thing you omitted to mention though is the exact boundaries of the district. When I spoke of the "eastern appendage" in the original post, I did mean Galveston as well as Port Arthur. Note that no one's living in between Port Arthur and High Island (except for the very small settlement of Sabine Pass, if that's the name - quoted from memory), so the district is "really" three separate parts (although I need to look up where the population in the Brazoria portion is thickest - I know where the population in Brazoria as a whole is thickest - namely, in the SD 11 portion, but obviously there's a lot of population in SD17 as well).

Sabine Pass is actually south of Port Arthur, along the Texas-Louisiana border.  But I guess that does qualify.

However yes, there literally is nothing between Port Arthur and High Island.  The one road in that area (St. Highway 87) has been closed for ages and is probably largely washed away by the Gulf now.  Or at least it was when I drove through there about 10 years ago.  Rita and Ike probably fully did it away.  There were nudist colonies out there at one time, as I recall.

Sabine Pass is actually within the city limits of Port Arthur (though it is about 15 miles south of the city proper).   The SD 17 boundaries very neatly include everything in Port Arthur, and excludes everything north  (Port Neches, Groves, Nederland).  The basic idea was to chop out enough of Jefferson County, so that the Montgomery County portion of the district to the north (SD 4) could outvote the Golden Triangle.  And they were also careful not to tip SD 11.  I suspect that in 2010, Port Arthur will be moved into SD 4, and Orange County into SD 3 in East Texas, which is more reliably Republican now, or you can run it up into Tyler and Longview.

In 1998, the Democrats picked up CD 4, while the GOP had a 71:29 (against a D, not an L) in CD 17.  Buster Brown was the senator from CD 17 - and the district may have been drawn to remove him.

In one of my reply's to Lewis, there was a link to a road trip on the old portion of TX-87, which took 3 hours for 20 miles, all in 4 wheel drive.  Basically the pavement is broken up into chunks so that it is kind of like driving over rock piles.  It may be easier to drive the beach.  The part at the eastern end is maintained because it is the access road to Sea Rim State Park.

There were also some pictures of the coast post Ike, showing this thin little line where the road and dunes were, and then water for miles beyond it.  The pictures were taken by the USGS from Quintana (near the mouth of the Brazos all the way into Louisiana.  There are 100s of them, and they're tied to a nifty map.

[jimrtex]

Sabine Pass is actually south of Port Arthur, along the Texas-Louisiana border.  But I guess that does qualify.

It does - as the district curves south from Port Arthur to the coast, then westward along the coast, it includes the settlement there.

Sabine Pass is within the city limits of Port Arthur which extend even further south to the mouth of the Sabine River. 

Connecting Galveston and Port Arthur along the coast is not so illogical (remember that the beach is a public conveyance in Texas), nor extending it further west in Brazoria County.  What is illogical is splitting the city of Galveston, and then connecting it to western Harris County.

ps. A curiosity about the Battle of Sabine Pass is that the hero of the battle, Dick Dowling, is the namesake of the Houston chapter of the Ancient Order of Hibernians.

[jimrtex]

Early Voting:

Huffman 60.2% Bell 39.8%.

By County:

Brazoria: Huffman 1906 Bell 724
Chambers: Huffman 0 Bell 0 (includes election day results
Fort Bend: Huffman 3314 Bell 1453
Galveston: Huffman 92 Bell 204
Harris: Huffman 5830 Bell 3511
Jefferson: Huffman 236 Bell 1132

I suspect that early voting will be a really huge percentage of the vote, since there is only the single race.  The Galveston vote is low, but it might be pretty hard to vote there.  For the general election, people would be more willing to put out the effort to early vote, and I think that they allowed people to vote on the mainland on election day.

[jimrtex]

192 of 211 Precincts

22,552 (57.18%) Huffman
16,888 (42.81%) Bell

Most everything left is from Harris or Fort Bend.  This one's over.

Chris Bell lost another one, surprise, surprise...

I was wrong about the early voting vs. election day voting, it appears early voting was under 50%.  Overall turnout is running a little under 18% of the election day total.  The best is in Jefferson which is 24%.  It looks like the GOP knew what they were doing splitting up Port Arthur and Beaumont.  In 1996, after the Democrat's congressional district lines were overturned, the districts that had been redrawn were conducted as special elections in November.  Nick Lampson defeated Steve Stockman based on heavy turnout in Jefferson County during the runoff.  The areas in Harris County, Clear Lake, Atascosita, Baytown didn't even know there was a runoff since most of the districts in Houston had a majority result (or were a rematch of the GOP primary).

[jimrtex]

In 2004, Bush carried SD-17 by 58%, vs 64% for CD-22, and 67% for CD-14.  A lot more of it is in Harris County.