Texas State House and Senate Races - 2008

[Sam Spade]

In response to an earlier thread today. 

I'm listing the top 10 House races for either side that I see I right now in order - I may give some explanations later as to what's going on. 

I really doubt that half of the races on either side will be interesting come Election Day, so if one or two of the top Dem seats fall, I doubt the House will be switching sides. 

There may be one or two more seats on either side that are real, real long shots, but some scandal will probably have to happen or something.

As for the Senate, I'm listing each race and telling you what I see.  Only 4 Senate Republicans are contested.  Only 2 Senate Democrats are.  As a rule, it's simply hard to get out incumbent State Senators because of the fact that Texas State Senate districts are larger than Texas CDs, so you need to have a CD-type campaign to compete with incumbency.

One special election will be held in a seat that favors Republicans, but could actually flip, though odds are against.  We need to see who the candidates are first.  Janek was a classic moderate Republican and quite safe.
Senate (open seats marked with * - presently 20-11 GOP)
DEM
1. SD-21 (Zaffirini)
2. SD-6 (Gallegos)

GOP
1. SD-17* (Janek)
2. SD-10 (Brimer)
4. SD-11 (Jackson)
3. SD-16 (Carona)
5. SD-9 (Harris)

Projection
Probably nothing changes.  I could see Dem +2 if the right situation happens in to occur in Janek's SD or a quasi-miracle occurs in the other three (Brimer's is obviously the most competitive right now).  Anything more than that is probably a pipe-dream.

House (open seats marked with * - presently 79-71 GOP)
DEM
1. HD-17*(Cook)
2. HD-97 (Barrett)
3. HD-32 (Garcia)
4. HD-149 (Vo)
5. HD-107 (Vaught)
6. HD-85 (Heflin)
7. HD-11 (Hopson)
8. HD-3 (Bower)
9. HD-47 (Bolton)
10. HD-48 (Howard)
Watch List: HD-93 (Pierson), HD-106 (Englund)

GOP
1. HD-78* (Haggerty)
2. HD-52* (Krusee)
3. HD-101* (Latham)
4. HD-96 (Zedler)
5. HD-102 (Goolsby)
6. HD-133 (Murphy)
7. HD-144* (Talton)
8. HD-129 (Davis)
9. HD-112* (Hill)
10. HD-55* (Delisi)
Watch List: HD-105 (Harper-Brown), HD-108 (Branch)

Projection
Getting there...

[jimrtex]

In response to an earlier thread today. 

I've left off the quoting, so I can intersperese my comments.

House (open seats marked with * - presently 79-71 GOP)
DEM
1. HD-17*(Cook - retiring)

This is a rural area west of Houston.  Cook was going to retire in 2004 and there were even two candidates who filed in the Democratic primary, before he decided to continue.  In 2006, it was within a percentage point, and the GOP challenger from then is running again.

2. HD-97 (Barrett - won runoff in December 2007)

This is in SW Fort Worth and SW Tarrant County.   In the 2007 special election, 6 Republicans split 68.5% of the vote.  The runoff was held a week before Christmas and turnout was down 42%, and Barrett squeaked through with a 4% margin.

3. HD-32 (Garcia - defeated incumbent in 2006)

This is eastern Nueces County (Corpus Christi) and counties to the northeast.  Garcia won by 2% in 2006, in a race in which a Libertarian candidate peeled off 6%,  Garcia attended Harvard law school with Barack Obama, and endorsed him in the primary.

4. HD-85 (Heflin - elected in 2006)

16 rural counties in the area between Lubbock, Abilene, San Angelo, and Midland.  This was Pete Laney's seat which Heflin squeaked through in 2006.

5. HD-11 (Hopson)

This is south of Tyler and Longview.  Hopson won by 51% in 2006.

6. HD-107 (Vaught - defeated incumbent in 2006)

Northeast Dallas.  This will be a rematch of the 2006 election.

7. HD-149 (Vo)

Far SW Houston.  Vo has been getting unfavorable publicity as a slumlord.

8. HD-47 (Bolton)

SW Austin and Travis County.  This seat was formerly held by Terry Keel, who had previously been sheriff of Travis County and was running for a seat on the Court of Criminal Appeals (Texas's supreme court for criminal cases).  His wife is running for the seat this time.

9. HD-3 (Bower) (Homer)

Red River, including Paris, Mount Pleasant, and Sulphur Springs.

10. HD-48 (Howard)

NW Austin.  NW Travis County.  Howard won a special election in 2006, and then the GOP candidate withdrew before the general election.

I'd say that the GOP has a good shot in 2 of the races, and perhaps 6 others if this were 2004.

GOP
1. HD-78* (Haggerty - retiring defeated in the primary)

Northern El Paso.  Haggerty had generally been unopposed, but that was partly because he often would side with the Democrats.  The Republican candidate received a credible 42% of the vote for the El Paso senate seat.

2. HD-52* (Krusee - defeated in primary retired) 

Williamson County, including the areas immediately north of Austin.   The GOP primary drew 4 candidates.

3. HD-101* (Latham - defeated in primary)

Mesquite and E.Dallas County.  A curiousity is that the Republican incumbent has been beaten in two consecutive elections.  The Democrats did not contest the seat in either 2004 or 2006.

4. HD-102 (Goolsby)

North Dallas and South Garland.  Goolsby won with 52% in 2006.

5. HD-96 (Zedler)

Southern Tarrant County including parts of Crowley and Mansfield.  53% in 2006.

6. HD-112* (Hill - retiring)

Richardson and NW Garland.  Should be fairly easy to hold.

7. HD-144* (Talton - ran for TX-22)

Southern Pasadena and SE Houston.

8. HD-133 (Murphy - elected in 2006)

West Houston.

9. HD-19 (Hamilton)

Northern Orange County, Hardin and Newton County.

10. Tough call here, because I think two of the other trendy DFW choices really are borderline-not competitive, no matter how much *hype* they get - I'll go with an odd one...
HD-55* (Delisi - retiring)

Larger share of Bell County, centered on Temple.  No way.

Projection
Too early yet.

I'd say perhaps about 4 seats overall.  There was much more action in the primaries where 9 incumbents (5 GOP and 4 Democrat were defeated).

[Sam Spade]

Dem side:

I suspected you wouldn't like the inclusion of HD-55.    It's only because I think that a couple of the other DFW seats that I've seen the usual Dem sources play up (e.g. HD-105, HD-108).  Additionally, it's a former Chet Edwards guy running there.

HD-112 (Hill) is up there above the others because this is a classic DFW suburb where Republican margins are declining as minorities move in and the Dem challenger is a good one.  Of course, it's still 60-40 GOP, probably slightly more than that, but an open seat must (in my mind) be treated more seriously than say HD-133 (Murphy), which is slightly less GOP, but there's an incumbent (albeit one-term) or HD-19 (Hamilton) who has held off strong challengers by double-digits time and time again (and I don't believe this one is as strong)

HD-144 (Talton) would be higher up on the list, but the Dem challenger is not top-tier (to put it mildly).

The other five I feel good about.  HD-102 (Goolsby) is obviously higher than HD-96 (Zedler), even though his HD is more GOP, just because he's been such a weak campaigner before.

GOP side:

We basically agree, for the most part.  I feel fairly good about placement for now.

[Sam Spade]

I made one slight change - due to my comments above and noticing that I missed one HD on the Dem side that should at least be mentioned (party-switcher Kirk Englund), I have added a watch-list for seats that I think could be interesting, which includes the two DFW seats mentioned above, HD-106 (Englund) and HD-93 (Pierson), which is a 53-47, 52-48 DFW seat which the incumbent was beaten by Pierson last time and there is a fairly strong Republican running.

[jimrtex]

HD-112 (Hill) is up there above the others because this is a classic DFW suburb where Republican margins are declining as minorities move in and the Dem challenger is a good one.  Of course, it's still 60-40 GOP, probably slightly more than that, but an open seat must (in my mind) be treated more seriously than say HD-133 (Murphy), which is slightly less GOP, but there's an incumbent (albeit one-term) or HD-19 (Hamilton) who has held off strong challengers by double-digits time and time again (and I don't believe this one is as strong)

I really don't think there is any chance in HD-19.  The district was carefully drawn, and Hamilton's margin has been going up, and neither Obama or Noriega are going to to push the Democratic turnout.
It's small town rural enough, that people know who their representative is. 

HD-133 has a lot of apartments, and no one is going to know who their state representative is, and Obama and Noriega may give a boost in straight ticket voting.

HD-112 is much more single family, with people having chosen the area because of its schools.  I think 133 is much more susceptible to a switch.

[jimrtex]

I made one slight change - due to my comments above and noticing that I missed one HD on the Dem side that should at least be mentioned (party-switcher Kirk Englund), I have added a watch-list for seats that I think could be interesting, which includes the two DFW seats mentioned above, HD-106 (Englund) and HD-93 (Pierson), which is a 53-47, 52-48 DFW seat which the incumbent was beaten by Pierson last time and there is a fairly strong Republican running.

It's England with an 'a'.   The problem with HD-106 is that England barely won as a Republican.

[Sam Spade]

I made one slight change - due to my comments above and noticing that I missed one HD on the Dem side that should at least be mentioned (party-switcher Kirk Englund), I have added a watch-list for seats that I think could be interesting, which includes the two DFW seats mentioned above, HD-106 (Englund) and HD-93 (Pierson), which is a 53-47, 52-48 DFW seat which the incumbent was beaten by Pierson last time and there is a fairly strong Republican running.

It's England with an 'a'.   The problem with HD-106 is that England barely won as a Republican.

Corrected.  As for his position, I know.  But party switchers in highly marginal seats should always be put on the watch list unless otherwise stated.

[Sam Spade]

I really don't think there is any chance in HD-19.  The district was carefully drawn, and Hamilton's margin has been going up, and neither Obama or Noriega are going to to push the Democratic turnout.
It's small town rural enough, that people know who their representative is. 

ya, ya, we agree.  I just thought it stood above the options below it, which I regard as real, real long shots.

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I'll give it serious thought.  You're quite right on the apartment vs. single-family thing, especially towards the southern part of that HD, for sure.  But the difference in terms of Republicanness is not that great in my book, about 3-5 points (61-62 vs. 57-58).  That's probably the primary reason for the ranking, considering on seat is open.

[Sam Spade]

Amusingly, Chris Bell is running for the Janek seat, which includes part (a fairly small part - if you examine the SD, it is everything to the east of US-59 in Harris County) of his old House CD before the state Republicans blackified it.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5887506.html

As mentioned in the article, the deadline for filing is August 29.  Two Republicans (non-office holders) have already filed.

[jimrtex]

Amusingly, Chris Bell is running for the Janek seat, which includes part (a fairly small part - if you examine the SD, it is everything to the east of US-59 in Harris County) of his old House CD before the state Republicans blackified it.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5887506.html

As mentioned in the article, the deadline for filing is August 29.  Two Republicans (non-office holders) have already filed.

The race will be run as a special election with no primary, and a runoff.  Straight ticket voting will not be valid.

In 2002, SD 17 overlapped with 6 CDs.

CD 22 42K (DeLay)
CD 7 29K (Culberson, unopposed so a bit low on vote)
CD 24 28K (Bell, though he lost this part of his district 45-55).
CD 9 19K (Lampson, his old district and the more easterly and Democrat part)
CD 14 10K (Paul)
CD 31 4K (Carter, his district at that time ran from Williamson to Harris County)

SD 17 overlaps 15 Texas House districts (each SD has a population of slightly less than 5 House districts).

In 2002, SD 17 was about 3% more R than the State.  In 2004 about 2% more D; in 2006 about 0-2% more D (candidates from Houston area - Radnofsky, Abbot, Dewhurst, Patterson appear to have a slight advantage - so the 2% was in the Senate race vs. KBH.  Though Kay Bailey was from LaMarque and was a TV reporter and legislator from the area, that was close to 30 years ago, and is now associated more with the DFW area).

In the 2006 gubernatorial race: Perry -0.5%, Bell +1.3%, Friedman 2.4%, Strayhorn -3.1%.

[MarkWarner08]

Competitive TX leg. races according to the Houston Chronicle:

"State Senate seats
•SD 17: The field is still forming in this no-primary special election for the seat held by retiring Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston. Democrat Chris Bell at present is expected to face three Republicans — Grant Harpold, Joan Huffman and Austen Furse — in the election on the same day as presidential voting. A large Democratic turnout could help Bell eke out a victory on Election Day, but conventional wisdom is that Bell will be in a runoff with a Republican who has been damaged by infighting among the GOP candidates. Special elections normally favor Republican turnout, but the Democrats are expected to be energized this year. Toss-up.
•SD 10: The district represented by state Sen. Ken Brimer, R-Arlington, has the largest black population of any state Senate district held by a Republican, and he has two colleges in his district. Former Fort Worth City Councilwoman Wendy Davis is fighting hard. An upset is possible.
•SD 11: State Sen. Mike Jackson, R-LaPorte, is being given a look at possible defeat at the hands of Democrat Joe Jaworski. Jackson has not done a good job of keeping his profile up, and Jaworski may be able to capitalize on a general unhappiness with Republicans this year. Leans Republican.

Democratic edge?
Texas House seats held by Republicans in 2007 that Democrats could win.

•HD 52: Open seat. Republican Robert "Bryan" Daniel against Democrat Diane Maldonado, both of Round Rock. Toss-up.
•HD 78: Open seat. Republican Dee Margo received 53 percent of the district's vote when he ran for a Senate seat in an overlapping district two years ago. The Democrat in the 2008 race is Joseph Moody, whose father won 60 percent of the district's vote when he ran for statewide judicial office in 2006. Toss-up.
•HD 96: Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington, is challenged by Democrat Chris Turner of Burleson. Upset possible.
•HD 101: Open seat. Former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson, a Republican, is favored over Democrat Robert Miklos. Leans Republican.
•HD 102: Rep. Tony Goolsby, R-Dallas, is challenged by Democrat Carol Kent. Leans Republican.
•HD 129: Rep. John Davis, R-Houston, is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Sherrie Matula. Leans Republican.
•District 133: Rep. Jim Murphy, R-Houston, challenged by Democrat Kristi Thibaut, who could benefit from a big vote for Obama in the district. Leans Republican.
•District 144: Open seat. Republican Ken Legler versus Democrat Joel Redmond, both of Pasadena. This Republican district is trending Democratic, but it may not get there this year. Leans Republican.

GOP edge?
Texas House seats held by Democrats in 2007 that Republicans could win.

•HD 17: Open seat. Republican Tim Kleinschmidt of Lexington against Democrat Donnie Dippel of La Grange. Toss-up.
•HD 32: Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi, is challenged by Democrat-turned-Republican former state Rep. Todd Hunter of Corpus Christi in a GOP-leaning district. Upset of Garcia possible.
•HD 97: Democratic Rep. Dan Barrett of Fort Worth gave his party hope by winning this Republican district in a special election last year. He will have a hard time holding onto the seat in a challenge from Republican Mark Shelton. Leans Republican.
•HD 149: Rep. Hubert Vo, D-Houston, was a shoo-in for re-election until he got hit with a barrage of stories about his ownership of substandard apartments. Now, Vo is damaged goods being challenged by Republican Gregory Meyers. Toss-up.
•WD40s: White Democrats over age 40: Reps. Mark Homer of Paris, Chuck Hopson of Jacksonville and Jim McReynolds of Lufkin are targets each election because their rural districts are Republican. A heavy turnout for McCain could allow an opponent to score a bull's-eye."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/5908549.html

Is Vo really in a toss-up race?

[Sam Spade]

With Vo, the slumlord publicity is big, since it's been in the local news a good bit from what I've heard.  Also, that HD is quite marginal (actually lean GOP functionally).

A few things:

1. Chris Bell is not going to eek out a victory on Election Day in this SD.  He could win a low-turnout runoff, but that's about it.  The Houston Chronicle has always had a thing for Chris Bell and will simply never give "balanced" reporting about him.

2.  HD-129:  The Chronicle is smoking crack here.  This is a 2-1 HD in the Harris County suburbs with an incumbent.  HD-112 is much more reasonable if you think one of these types of HDs is going to go - after all, no incumbent.

3. I never thought of the Talton HD (HD-144) as trending Democratic, but what do I know.  Also, the Dem candidate quality there is a big factor.

4. To put HD-17 at toss-up is being quite generous.  Kleinscmidt came within a point of Cook last time in quite a favorable Dem year.

5. The lack of inclusion of HD-85 or HD-107 on the GOP side shows where that paper's priorities are.

[Sam Spade]

bumping just because I like this topic. 

[MarkWarner08]

bumping just because I like this topic. 

Why bother? No one posts in this forum, anyway!

[motomonkey]

Some of us may not be posting, but we are reading.  Simply don't know enough to add any value.  But thanks to all three of you for an interesting discussion on Texas races.

[Sam Spade]

Most of this one will be just guessing, but I'll try. 

[jimrtex]

But with results interspersed.

House (open seats marked with * - presently 79-71 GOP)
DEM
1. HD-17*(Cook)

Easy pickup.   54R:43D:3L.   In 2006, Dems had only held this seat between Houston and San Antonio when Cook was talked into running for re-election at the last moment.

2. HD-97 (Barrett)

GOP regains Tarrant County seat lost in 2007 special election, when GOP forgot to show up for the runoff the week before Christmas.  In the special election, 6 Republicans had split 69% of the vote, but saw turnout drop from 12K to 5K, while Dem turnout was even.  2008: 55R:43D:2L, with turnout up almost 600% from 2007 runoff.

3. HD-32 (Garcia)

GOP regains Corpus area seat lost in 2006.  In that election, Juan Garcia had run as naval aviator (which has traditionally had a big presence in the Coastal Bend).  In the 2008 primaries, he endorsed fellow Harvard Law School classmate Barack Obama.  Naval aviator may be better resume than Ivy League lawyer in South Texas.  2008: 50R:47D:3L.

4. HD-149 (Vo)

Slumlord Hubert Vo easily holds west Houston seat 56D:44R.  He first won this seat in 2004, in an extremely narrow election which was probably decided by votes cast in the wrong district or by unqualified voters.

5. HD-107 (Vaught)

Vaught holds Dallas County seat 50D:47R:3L.  This is the 2nd election in a row where Vaught has narrowly defeated Bill Keffer, in a seat he had been unopposed in 2004.

6. HD-85 (Heflin)

Heflin holds on to sprawling West Texas seat formerly held by Pete Laney.   53D:47R.

7. HD-11 (Hopson)

Hopson wins squeaker in SE Texas.  49.27D:49.07R:1.65L, or 102 votes out of 53,000 and about 1/8 of the Libertarian vote.

8. HD-3 (Homer)

Homer holds NE Texas seat 52D:48R.

9. HD-47 (Bolton)

Bolton holds W Travis seat, 51D:49R, defeating the wife of Terry Keel who had been the elected GOP sheriff of Travis County, and also this House seat before deciding to run for a state judgeship.

10. HD-48 (Howard)

54D:42R:4L in Travis County.

Watch List: HD-93 (Pierson), HD-106 (England)

Easy holds.

GOP
1. HD-78* (Haggerty)

Dem pickup in El Paso (D52:R45:L3).   Haggerty had been beaten in the GOP primary and was not a particularly reliable vote.  The GOP had left him alone because he was in their party, and the Dems had left him alone because he voted with them much of the time.

2. HD-52* (Krusee)

Dem pickup in Williamson County 48.61D:47.42R:4.96L.  Krusee had not sought re-election.

3. HD-101* (Latham)

Dem pickup in Dallas County.  50.56D:49.43R.  Latham had been beaten in primary.

4. HD-96 (Zedler)

Dem pickup in Dallas County.  51D:47R:2L.

5. HD-102 (Goolsby)

Dem pickup in Dallas County.  53D:47R.  Goolsby probably hurt by newspaper reports of refurbishment of House member's lounge, which he had overseen as chair of House Operations committee.

6. HD-133 (Murphy)

Apparent Dem pickup in west Houston.   50.51D:49.41R

7. HD-144* (Talton)

GOP hold of seat where Talton did not seek re-election.  51R:49D.

8. HD-129 (Davis)

59R:41D.

9. HD-112* (Hill)

56R:40D:4L.  GOP hold seat where Hill did not seek re-election.

10. HD-55* (Delisi)

54R:44D:3L.  GOP hold seat where Delisi did not seek re-election.

Watch List: HD-105 (Harper-Brown), HD-108 (Branch)

Harper-Brown has 25 vote margin.  Branch has a 21% margin.

[Lief 🗽]

The Democrats picked up a net of 3 seats in the Texas House (possibly 4, pending a recount of a race with a margin of 25 votes at the moment) and 1 seat in the Senate (with the possibility of 2 pending a run-off). This puts the House at 76-74 R (possibly split 75-75) and almost certainly means that Speaker Craddick (R) is screwed, probably to be replaced by a Republican (maybe with some Democratic cross-over support) or by a Democrat (with some moderate Republican cross-over support). But Craddick is almost surely toppled.

[minionofmidas]

The Democrats picked up a net of 3 seats in the Texas House (possibly 4, pending a recount of a race with a margin of 25 votes at the moment) and 1 seat in the Senate (with the possibility of 2 pending a run-off). This puts the House at 76-74 R (possibly split 75-75) and almost certainly means that Speaker Craddick (R) is screwed, probably to be replaced by a Republican (maybe with some Democratic cross-over support) or by a Democrat (with some moderate Republican cross-over support). But Craddick is almost surely toppled.

Recount trimmed a fifth off Harper-Brown's margin, but she's won.

[minionofmidas]

Competitive TX leg. races according to the Houston Chronicle:

"State Senate seats
•SD 17: The field is still forming in this no-primary special election for the seat held by retiring Sen. Kyle Janek, R-Houston. Democrat Chris Bell at present is expected to face three Republicans — Grant Harpold, Joan Huffman and Austen Furse — in the election on the same day as presidential voting. A large Democratic turnout could help Bell eke out a victory on Election Day, but conventional wisdom is that Bell will be in a runoff with a Republican who has been damaged by infighting among the GOP candidates. Special elections normally favor Republican turnout, but the Democrats are expected to be energized this year. Toss-up.

There was an additional Democrat in the race - Stephanie Simmons. Also an additional Republican, Ken Sherman. And while Bell didn't win on the first round (just as Spade predicted), the two Democrats actually outpolled the four Republicans.

Results:
Bell 38.4, Huffman 26.1, Simmons 13.8, Furse 10.1, Sherman 7.5, Harpold 4.1

by county (ordered by votes cast. percentage in bracket is share of district, by valid votes)
Harris (53.6) Bell 37.6, Huffman 21.4, Simmons 15.3, Furse 13.5, Sherman 8.2, Harpold 4.1
Fort Bend (27.8) Bell 39.0, Huffman 36.3, Simmons 9.6, Sherman 6.5, Furse 6.5, Harpold 2.1
Brazoria (9.5) Huffman 36.6, Bell 26.7, Simmons 12.1, Harpold 9.8, Furse 7.5, Sherman 7.3
Jefferson (4.9) Bell 57.6, Simmons 26.4, Huffman 7.1, Sherman 4.6, Furse 3.0, Harpold 1.4
Galveston (4.1) Bell 49.3, Huffman 17.9, Simmons 12.2, Sherman 9.5, Harpold 6.3, Furse 4.8

To make it seem as if the district were contiguous, it also includes an uninhabited portion of Chambers County. Seems like Republican retention hopes rest on the eastern Democratic appendage not turning out.

When is the runoff being held?

Also, I note that two State House races were held doubly (for the vacancy in the current house as well as the general), and in one of those (HD 55) the Republican barely failed to win a majority, even though he did get one in the general - probably due to straight ticket votes not being counted (there were about 8000 fewer votes cast)? They going to bother with a runoff in that one?

[Sam Spade]

There was an additional Democrat in the race - Stephanie Simmons. Also an additional Republican, Ken Sherman. And while Bell didn't win on the first round (just as Spade predicted), the two Democrats actually outpolled the four Republicans.

I believe Simmons was black and was put in there by St. Sen. Ron Wilson (D) to cause problems...

Just FYI - this State Senate seat is 15% black.  Of course, the folks who probably missed the special election were straight ticket voters, no doubt.  Let's see how this plays in a runoff.  The runoff date is December 16, btw.

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I have no clue.  Maybe so, even though it would be humorous.  The difference, of course, between SD 17 and HD 55 is that SD 17 wouldn't have been up for election this year if the incumbent hadn't vacated.

[Sam Spade]

I believe Simmons was black and was put in there by St. Sen. Ron Wilson (D) to cause problems...


Just FYI - this State Senate seat is 15% black.  Of course, the folks who probably missed the special election were straight ticket voters, no doubt.  Let's see how this plays in a runoff.  The runoff date is December 16, btw.

I hadn't touched on an important issue in my previous post because I assumed too much (lazily)

Basically, Chris Bell is not liked in the black community in Houston one bit because of certain past races (mayoral/Congress).

I am curious to see how blacks react to this - I suspect they don't show, actually.

[jimrtex]

I believe Simmons was black and was put in there by St. Sen. Ron Wilson (D) to cause problems...

Just FYI - this State Senate seat is 15% black.  Of course, the folks who probably missed the special election were straight ticket voters, no doubt.  Let's see how this plays in a runoff.  The runoff date is December 16, btw.

I hadn't touched on an important issue in my previous post because I assumed too much (lazily)

Basically, Chris Bell is not liked in the black community in Houston one bit because of certain past races (mayoral/Congress).

I am curious to see how blacks react to this - I suspect they don't show, actually.

Chris Bell (white) was a city councilman in Houston, who was running for mayor in 2001, where he finished 3rd behind Lee P Brown (black) and Orlando Sanchez (Hispanic, Cuban).  Bell endorsed Brown in the runoff, and then immediately announced his candidacy for Congress, where he faced councilman Carroll Robinson (black) and 2 others in the Democratic primary for the seat vacated by Ken Bentsen (Lloyd's nephew), who was seeking the US Senate nomination.  Brown in turn (or exchange) endorsed Bell who won the Democratic primary (and runoff) and was then elected to Congress for a single term.

Carroll (pronounced keROLL) is the son of Judson Robinson, who was the first black councilman in Houston since Reconstruction.  Brown is seen as somewhat of an outsider, having first coming from Atlanta to become police chief under Kathy Whitmire; then moving on to become police commissioner in New York City, and the drug czar in Washington.  He later moved back to Houston.

In the 2001 redistricting litigation, the federal court had declined to draw a 2nd black majority district in Houston, saying that while they were sympathetic to the idea, it was not the role of the court to legislate.  In 2003, the Texas legislature did create the 2nd black majority district in the Houston area, and Al Green defeated Chris Bell in the Democratic primary (67%-31%).  At the same time Ron Wilson (black) was defeated in the Democratic primary for the House, because he was seen as being too close to the Republican leadership in the House.  In the 2007 end-of-session kerfuffle, Ron Wilson was one of the two new parliamentarians appointed by Tom Craddick after the others had resigned.

Stephanie Simmons (black) filed for the special election at the last possible minute (accompanied by Ron Wilson, who now lives in Austin).  The Bell campaign then filed suit alleging that Simmons had not lived in the district for one year (as required by the Texas Constitution).  She had in fact lived in the district for the required time, but hadn't bothered to update her registration, and admitted that she had always voted at her parent's residence.  Simmons was represented in the law suit by an attorney who typically represents Republicans, but who was apparently recommended by Wilson.  After the judge ruled against Bell, his campaign bragged that their frivolous and wasteful litigation (which the Secretary of State had to defend against) had "proved" that Simmons was really being supported by Republicans, because Wilson was practically a Republican.

Simmons was also supported by Al Edwards (black), who is making a comeback.  Edwards was sponsor of the booty bill, and was defeated in the 2006 primary by Borris Miles (black).  After Miles proved even more embarassing, Edwards defeated him in the 2008 primary.

During the special election, Wilson contributed $30,000 to Simmons' campaign, who also attracted the endorsement of Texans for Lawsuit Reform (which is an anti-plaintiff lawyers group).  Bell, of course, had most of his failed gubernatorial campaign underwritten by the trial lawyers, who are likely to also be funding his latest attempt.

[jimrtex]

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I have no clue.  Maybe so, even though it would be humorous.  The difference, of course, between SD 17 and HD 55 is that SD 17 wouldn't have been up for election this year if the incumbent hadn't vacated.

I couldn't find anything on this, so I've sent an e-mail to the SoS.  The Bell County web site has it even closer to 50% (49.99%).

Countywide, straight ticket voting was about 50% of the total vote.  HD 55 is entirely in the county, but HD 54 is a big chunk of the county as well.  I found some precinct totals, but they don't break out the early voting, which was around 70% of the vote. 

The bigger difference was that the 3rd candidate was different.  To run in the general election, you would have had to file last December or very early January.  To run in the special, you file after the special election is called.

The former representative for this district is Dianne White Delisi, who is the mother-in-law of Deirdre Delisi, who was Rick Perry's campaign manager and chief of staff.  She is now chairperson of TXDOT.

Dianne Delisi announced that she wasn't going to run for re-election, which resulted in a bitter primary won by Sheffield.  She later announced her resignation which triggered the special election.  Under Texas law, the governor can call an emergency election, or wait for a uniform election date.  There used to be four, in February, May, August, and November; but now only the May and November dates remain.  This explains the rather unusual date for a special election - and that there is no provision for combining elections.

I didn't find anything in Texas law about cancelling a runoff.  It is potentially a recount situation, because a change in the result would be disqualify a candidate from the runoff.  And the runoff can be held 45 days after the canvass, so it could be set in early January.  Sheffield is listed on the roster of House members on the Legislature web site, but so are 7 other newcomers - so it doesn't necessarily mean that he has taken office. 

The closest I could find was a provision when there is a vacancy for both the new term, and the remainder of a term.  In that case, there is only one special election.  But that would more likely occur when there had been a special election some time before the general election.  And then something happened to the winner of the general election before his term began.

[jimrtex]

To make it seem as if the district were contiguous, it also includes an uninhabited portion of Chambers County. Seems like Republican retention hopes rest on the eastern Democratic appendage not turning out.

There is a tiny strip (about a mile wide) in the southeast corner of Chambers County that is between Galveston and Jefferson County.  If it weren't included, the district wouldn't be contiguous.