AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

[wbrocks67]

Because at this point, most of those McCain Republicans still probably lean a little more left than right I think.

Sinema is an indy, but she's clearly also disingenuous and I don't think that crowd would necessarily buy into her schtick just because she's saying she's an independent.

[Cyrusman]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

[Spectator]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

[Landslide Lyndon]

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

This.
Also, I don't see why Gallego would be a bridge too far for these people. Yeah, he is to the left of both Sinema and Kelly but it's not like he is a Cori Bush or Lee Carter kind of Democrat.

[Tekken_Guy]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

Because Donald Trump and Kari Lake came close by winning over a large number of “soft” Republican voters who voted against the crazy candidates in the primary, held their noses for the crazy Republicans in the general, and would be more open to Sinema in the 3-way match-up if Lake is the GOP nominee.

[Cyrusman]

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

This.
Also, I don't see why Gallego would be a bridge too far for these people. Yeah, he is to the left of both Sinema and Kelly but it's not like he is a Cori Bush or Lee Carter kind of Democrat.

So did these "republicans" just all have complete ideology changes or were they never really Republicans and more so just McCain loyal independents who liked him mainly. I get not voting Trump, but the people they are voting for are completely different in terms of their views and polices.

[Cyrusman]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

Does AZ have more of these type of "republicans" than PA, NV, GA, WI, MI, etc.. Just feels like Dems hit 10% of the GOP vote pretty easily and a lot more common in AZ that other swing states.

[xavier110]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

Does AZ have more of these type of "republicans" than PA, NV, GA, WI, MI, etc.. Just feels like Dems hit 10% of the GOP vote pretty easily and a lot more common in AZ that other swing states.

To help situate you, let’s use the Wisconsin WOW counties as an example. Professional, suburban, historically GOP. 400k votes in 2020.

Apply the same trends/demographics, broadly speaking (there are differences, of course), to Maricopa, but also consider that it produces 2 million votes.

That is why AZ feels a little different. You could argue this was always a little overdue, since Phoenix and its surrounding areas didn’t operate like some mega-Dem electoral machine like other urban metros.

Separately, it is an interesting argument re: whose voters were “weaker” supporters — Lake or Hobbs.   How many people held their nose for Lake vs. Hobbs… you can argue that the Kelly/Sinema/Biden voters were always gonna pick Hobbs, it’s true. But I do think they would have dabbled with Robson. And certainly some Lake voters very, very reluctantly went with her and would have jumped for Robson. Interesting situation.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[Zedonathin2020]

 I suddenly feel like the launch ad is going to be a disastrous conspiracy theory filled ad of lies

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

She has my complete and total endorsement. For the Republican nomination. No matter what Sinema does, this is good news for the Gallego campaign.

[Holmes]

I'm so sorry to Arizona for having to experience another Kari Lake campaign so soon after the last one.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

She has my complete and total endorsement. For the Republican nomination. No matter what Sinema does, this is good news for the Gallego campaign.

Be careful what you wish for.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

She has my complete and total endorsement. For the Republican nomination. No matter what Sinema does, this is good news for the Gallego campaign.

Be careful what you wish for.

Even if Lake makes the Senate, she will get no legislation passed, and be a punching bag for Democrats nationwide.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

She has my complete and total endorsement. For the Republican nomination. No matter what Sinema does, this is good news for the Gallego campaign.

Be careful what you wish for.

Even if Lake makes the Senate, she will get no legislation passed, and be a punching bag for Democrats nationwide.

And she'd be pretty much DOA in 2030.

[xavier110]

I'm so sorry to Arizona for having to experience another Kari Lake campaign so soon after the last one.

*sobs quietly*

I hope this ends up a Gallego vs Sinema race and Lake just lurks in last for most of it, tbh.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Don't see the point in supporting McConnell. It's not really an "electable" position when literally everyone hates him.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

This.
Also, I don't see why Gallego would be a bridge too far for these people. Yeah, he is to the left of both Sinema and Kelly but it's not like he is a Cori Bush or Lee Carter kind of Democrat.

I don't think Gallego would be a bridge too far for these people in a Gallego vs. Lake head-to-head race, but I also think they'd be more inclined to vote for Sinema in a three-way race. Or at least just a small fraction of them, which is all that needs to happen to let Lake win with a plurality. Lake already has 48% of the vote locked down.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I support Sinema in this race because I think she is one of the most brilliant legislators of our time, but it would be interesting to see a Senator Lake. It would probably serve Democrats well to have such an easy visible punching bag for the 6 years that they won't have a shot at controlling the Senate anyways.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I support Sinema in this race because I think she is one of the most brilliant legislators of our time, but it would be interesting to see a Senator Lake. It would probably serve Democrats well to have such an easy visible punching bag for the 6 years that they won't have a shot at controlling the Senate anyways.

I wouldn't be so confident that they won't control the Senate. There could easily be a blue tsunami in 2026 if Trump is elected in 2024, with only 51-52 seats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lake already has 48% of the vote locked down.

Not a single poll has shown Lake even close to that.

[Ferguson97]

Does Arizona have resign to run laws like Florida did?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Does Arizona have resign to run laws like Florida did?

Would be an important consideration for Lake, so early into her term as governor.

[MargieCat]

Big news: Paul Penzone is resigning as Maricopa County Sheriff in January.

At one point, it was rumored he might be running for senate or AZ-01 against Schweikert. Not sure where his residence is, but are also several Maricopa Board of Supervisors seats he could be looking at.
https://twitter.com/Penzone4sheriff/status/1709026199677329705