Polish Politics and Elections

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There are still some unknowns, which are kinda crucial:

1) what will be the configuration of oposition electoral lists, as there are still some talks, negotiations etc., if there will be two major lists or separate etc. - and that might be pretty important issue.

2) there are obviously internal factions, but without PiS they are unable to be succesful, they do not have much money, structures etc. - and without them PiS might loose that crucial 1-2% of votes, so they are kind of in constant state of playing chicken. I am kinda sure that Kaczyński will not repeat his mistake with genereous list composition from previous elections, where satelites got relatively a lot of good spots, but the question is how much he can cut them out.

3) we are still before the real electoral campaign and PiS still have some time - and they will work hard to once again assert their narratives as the dominant ones, their ideas as the discussed once etc.


As for now I am not really sure if PiS will win or lose tbh. Too early to call.

What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon? Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority? Is there a possibility of a joint list?

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There are still some unknowns, which are kinda crucial:

1) what will be the configuration of oposition electoral lists, as there are still some talks, negotiations etc., if there will be two major lists or separate etc. - and that might be pretty important issue.

2) there are obviously internal factions, but without PiS they are unable to be succesful, they do not have much money, structures etc. - and without them PiS might loose that crucial 1-2% of votes, so they are kind of in constant state of playing chicken. I am kinda sure that Kaczyński will not repeat his mistake with genereous list composition from previous elections, where satelites got relatively a lot of good spots, but the question is how much he can cut them out.

3) we are still before the real electoral campaign and PiS still have some time - and they will work hard to once again assert their narratives as the dominant ones, their ideas as the discussed once etc.


As for now I am not really sure if PiS will win or lose tbh. Too early to call.

What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon? Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority? Is there a possibility of a joint list?

"Is there a possibility of a joint list?"

As for now zero chances.

"Would they form a government together if PiS falls short of a majority?"

To be honest I am not quite sure, as Konfederacja is still a bunch of nutcases even from the point of view of ordinary PiS voters, especially because of their, now a little bit hidden, Russophilia. This might be damaging even for PiS, although we are talking about a scenario where PiS is struggling to keep power, so they might try to "buy" few Konfederacja MPs. Still, coalition with PSL would be probably preferable (though not that possible).

"What is the degree of closeness between PiS and Kon?"

Small. Other thing is that Konfederacja is very fragmented alliance and when we are talking about some sort of ideological affinity there are some groups which are closer to PiS, and some which are hostile to the PiS (especially when we are talking about economic issues). Some nationalist groups around Konfederacja are close to the PiS, also on the political level. But I would not say that they are the most important group inside Konfederacja.

Very helpful, thank you! Do you think the most likely option (other than PiS majority) is some coalition between (potentially a subset of) KO-Left-PSL-Poland 2050? Or are the differences within those too large to be bridged?
Also, do you foresee any future government substantially changing the government's stance with regards to Ukrainians seeking refuge in Poland?

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Is there anywhere where live results are available?