Election Twitter/PPP-AK: Trump +3

[Holmes]

How can you say with certainty that Biden is underperforming Clinton with Alaska natives?? There’s basically no data or reports on that. Sounds like something you pulled out of your ass.

[WD]

What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points

Based on what evidence?

COVID-19 barely making a dent in Alaska, tax cuts, oil boom, less 3rd party votes, increased defense spending, Alaska polls always underestimating republican numbers, Biden underperforming Clinton with native Alaskans, Alaska always swings for the incumbent, etc

lol Tax cuts? Oil Boom? Defense Spending?

Literally none of this matters or will have an effect. You just made this up because you want it to be true. But whatever helps you sleep at night.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Beware that Alaska polling tends to overestimate Democrats in the state.

However, Trump being only up three points in the state is probably in-line with Biden being up double digits nationwide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points

Based on what evidence?

COVID-19 barely making a dent in Alaska, tax cuts, oil boom, less 3rd party votes, increased defense spending, Alaska polls always underestimating republican numbers, Biden underperforming Clinton with native Alaskans, Alaska always swings for the incumbent, etc

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump breaks 60%

And AK send out 1K UBI benefits to its residents 1K a month thru its strong state bonding program. Which is a Democratic program that Murkowski created. Dunleavy is unpopular. That's why Young is losing in this poll

[wbrocks67]

Beware that Alaska polling tends to overestimate Democrats in the state.

However, Trump being only up three points in the state is probably in-line with Biden being up double digits nationwide.

Last time PPP polled AK, they were the most accurate. Granted it was 2014, but they are probably the best bet we have right now of polling accuracy in the state

[TDAS04]

Not that crazy.  I predict Trump wins Alaska by 5-6%.

[Gass3268]

What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points

Based on what evidence?

COVID-19 barely making a dent in Alaska, tax cuts, oil boom, less 3rd party votes, increased defense spending, Alaska polls always underestimating republican numbers, Biden underperforming Clinton with native Alaskans, Alaska always swings for the incumbent, etc

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump breaks 60%

Alaska hasn't swung towards the incumbent since 1984.

[FlyoverCoast]

The only problem: to win in Alaska, you have to be pro-oil

Can someone educate me if I am way off base, but wouldn’t Alaska be a great location for some renewable energy sources? I didn’t do much research but I found this article that suggests the same thing.

There are six significant renewable energy resources in the Last Frontier: wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, solar, and marine hydrokinetic.

If a Biden administration really does invest what his Biden/Bernie task force suggests in renewables, wouldn’t Alaska be one the biggest beneficiaries of this energy shift?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Democrats win AK, MT, and TX, they will sweep the nine largest states in the country.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How soon after the announcement of a crowdfunded Alaska were folks aching to post their "Alaska polling sucks" takes once results came in?

[NOVA Green]

How soon after the announcement of a crowdfunded Alaska were folks aching to post their "Alaska polling sucks" takes once results came in?

I believe I got in early on that one almost after it was announced there would be a poll of Alaska.

No need to repeat now that we have a poll, although I've been a bit of an optimist regarding movement in Alaska towards the Democratic Party for some time now so at least it's nice to see a poll that makes sense in terms of national trends regardless of "muh Alaska is one of the more difficult states to poll caveat".

[Mr. Illini]

Not really out of line with a lot of the other polling we’ve been seeing. Biden is up big time at the moment. We’ll see what happens as we approach November.

[Hammy]

Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.

*rolls eyes*

23% of the respondents are ‘other race’. 11% of them are undecided.
That’s 2.5% of the electorate.

77% of the respondents are white. 6% of them are undecided.
That’s 4.6% of the electorate.

I can’t believe I have to explain this.

What I'm saying is, you could have a very close race if say, the undecided White vote breaks 50-50, and the undecided "other race" vote breaks like 75/25 Biden.

Of course. But the ‘other race’ wouldn’t tip the race in favor of Biden if he trails by, say, 12 points among white undecideds. That’s what I was saying.

However, I think, unless things get worse, the undecideds will largely break for Trump, something like 60-40.

Agree with the first part but wanted to point out Trump only got 51% in Alaska in 2016, I don't think he'll do any better and I can easily see Alaska being within five points in the end, though Trump still winning.

[Ferguson97]

Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.

*rolls eyes*

23% of the respondents are ‘other race’. 11% of them are undecided.
That’s 2.5% of the electorate.

77% of the respondents are white. 6% of them are undecided.
That’s 4.6% of the electorate.

I can’t believe I have to explain this.

What I'm saying is, you could have a very close race if say, the undecided White vote breaks 50-50, and the undecided "other race" vote breaks like 75/25 Biden.

Of course. But the ‘other race’ wouldn’t tip the race in favor of Biden if he trails by, say, 12 points among white undecideds. That’s what I was saying.

However, I think, unless things get worse, the undecideds will largely break for Trump, something like 60-40.

Agree with the first part but wanted to point out Trump only got 51% in Alaska in 2016, I don't think he'll do any better and I can easily see Alaska being within five points in the end, though Trump still winning.

tbf Johnson got 5.8%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Alaska is not going to flip. But if it votes for Trump by single digits like this it correlates with a pretty big Biden win nationally, and that's still a win in my book.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

P U R P L E A L A S K A

Did someone say purple Alaska?

[Sbane]

Highly doubtful

Trump barely cracked 50% in 2016....

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

P U R P L E A L A S K A

Did someone say purple Alaska?

Speaking of Forrest Dunbar (featured in linked story), he's running for Anchorage's open mayoral seat next spring. Winning that would give him a huge perch to run for Senate or Governor one day, which he is very clearly angling for.

[Badger]

The only problem: to win in Alaska, you have to be pro-oil

Can someone educate me if I am way off base, but wouldn’t Alaska be a great location for some renewable energy sources? I didn’t do much research but I found this article that suggests the same thing.

There are six significant renewable energy resources in the Last Frontier: wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, solar, and marine hydrokinetic.

If a Biden administration really does invest what his Biden/Bernie task force suggests in renewables, wouldn’t Alaska be one the biggest beneficiaries of this energy shift?

That theoretically could someday be the case. But for the foreseeable future, oil is the political power in Alaska, both in terms of Rob votes for the number of jobs and campaign dollars it raises.

[Alben Barkley]

Alaska is the most beautiful state in the Union already. Seeing it blue (or Atlas red) will only make it even more beautiful.

[DabbingSanta]

2016 polling...

Gravis Marketing (Nov 3-6): Trump +4
SurveyMonkey (Nov 1-7): Trump +17
Google (Oct 25-27): Trump +1
Craciun Research  (Oct 21-26): Clinton +4
Lake Research (Oct 11-13): Trump +1

versus actual results...

Trump +14.73

take with a grain of salt

[wbrocks67]

2016 polling...

Gravis Marketing (Nov 3-6): Trump +4
SurveyMonkey (Nov 1-7): Trump +17
Google (Oct 25-27): Trump +1
Craciun Research  (Oct 21-26): Clinton +4
Lake Research (Oct 11-13): Trump +1

versus actual results...

Trump +14.73

take with a grain of salt

none of these are PPP though, who accurately polled the state in 2014. context matters.

[Roronoa D. Law]

2016 polling...

Gravis Marketing (Nov 3-6): Trump +4
SurveyMonkey (Nov 1-7): Trump +17
Google (Oct 25-27): Trump +1
Craciun Research  (Oct 21-26): Clinton +4
Lake Research (Oct 11-13): Trump +1

versus actual results...

Trump +14.73

take with a grain of salt

Those polls correctly estimated Clinton level support. What happened is that undecideds in Alaska and the country as a whole went for Trump.

[Former President tack50]

2016 polling...

Gravis Marketing (Nov 3-6): Trump +4
SurveyMonkey (Nov 1-7): Trump +17
Google (Oct 25-27): Trump +1
Craciun Research  (Oct 21-26): Clinton +4
Lake Research (Oct 11-13): Trump +1

versus actual results...

Trump +14.73

take with a grain of salt

Those polls correctly estimated Clinton level support. What happened is that undecideds in Alaska and the country as a whole went for Trump.

Fair enough. Then if undecideds will break for Trump this is a 55 Trump-45 Biden poll. I suppose Trump+10 is a reasonable margin.

[DabbingSanta]

2016 polling...

Gravis Marketing (Nov 3-6): Trump +4
SurveyMonkey (Nov 1-7): Trump +17
Google (Oct 25-27): Trump +1
Craciun Research  (Oct 21-26): Clinton +4
Lake Research (Oct 11-13): Trump +1

versus actual results...

Trump +14.73

take with a grain of salt

Those polls correctly estimated Clinton level support. What happened is that undecideds in Alaska and the country as a whole went for Trump.

Fair enough. Then if undecideds will break for Trump this is a 55 Trump-45 Biden poll. I suppose Trump+10 is a reasonable margin.

Alaska is also notoriously difficult to poll.