Election Twitter/PPP-AK: Trump +3
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  Election Twitter/PPP-AK: Trump +3
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Author Topic: Election Twitter/PPP-AK: Trump +3  (Read 2837 times)
Gass3268
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« on: July 09, 2020, 09:02:14 AM »
« edited: July 09, 2020, 11:17:39 AM by Gass3268 »

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I Fought Guns, Tanks, Cannon
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2020, 09:05:09 AM »

P U R P L E A L A S K A
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2020, 09:08:06 AM »

Alaska polling sucks FWIW but this is still nice to see

https://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/alaska/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2020, 09:10:53 AM »

Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2020, 09:12:17 AM »

The only problem: to win in Alaska, you have to be pro-oil
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2020, 09:15:59 AM »

Important to note: a 12% shift from 2016 would equal (roughly) Biden +14 nationwide, so that NYT/Siena poll is looking more and more accurate by the day
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Buzz
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« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2020, 09:16:28 AM »

Highly doubtful
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2020, 09:18:06 AM »

AK flipping isn't happening. The state will tighten compared to 2016, that I'm sure of. Mr. Trump might even fall under 50%, but AK has an above-average 3rd party vote share.
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W
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« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2020, 09:18:44 AM »

Election Twitter doing something useful?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2020, 09:21:45 AM »

AK flipping isn't happening. The state will tighten compared to 2016, that I'm sure of. Mr. Trump might even fall under 50%, but AK has an above-average 3rd party vote share.

Trump barely got 51% in 2016. It's not that hard to see him falling from that, and Biden scooping up a lot of the potential 3rd party voters.
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redjohn
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« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2020, 09:23:51 AM »

Polling is extremely difficult here. I could see AK going anywhere from Trump+15 to Biden+2, and the best part is we'll have no real idea until it fully reports results.
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2020, 09:25:49 AM »

Not very surprising given Trump's standing in national polls.

What's worthy of note is that there are very few undecideds in the race given it's AK.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2020, 09:26:27 AM »

Polling is extremely difficult here. I could see AK going anywhere from Trump+15 to Biden+2, and the best part is we'll have no real idea until it fully reports results.

A point is not a trend, but PPP have some credibility here:

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VAR
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« Reply #13 on: July 09, 2020, 09:28:08 AM »

Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.

*rolls eyes*

23% of the respondents are Ďother raceí. 11% of them are undecided.
Thatís 2.5% of the electorate.

77% of the respondents are white. 6% of them are undecided.
Thatís 4.6% of the electorate.

I canít believe I have to explain this.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: July 09, 2020, 09:35:48 AM »

Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.

*rolls eyes*

23% of the respondents are Ďother raceí. 11% of them are undecided.
Thatís 2.5% of the electorate.

77% of the respondents are white. 6% of them are undecided.
Thatís 4.6% of the electorate.

I canít believe I have to explain this.


What I'm saying is, you could have a very close race if say, the undecided White vote breaks 50-50, and the undecided "other race" vote breaks like 75/25 Biden.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: July 09, 2020, 09:38:52 AM »


Except in a Trump collapse. 10% down in matchups and in approval ratings nationwide?

Alaska is around 420 electoral votes for Biden.
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VAR
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« Reply #16 on: July 09, 2020, 09:45:36 AM »

Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.

*rolls eyes*

23% of the respondents are Ďother raceí. 11% of them are undecided.
Thatís 2.5% of the electorate.

77% of the respondents are white. 6% of them are undecided.
Thatís 4.6% of the electorate.

I canít believe I have to explain this.


What I'm saying is, you could have a very close race if say, the undecided White vote breaks 50-50, and the undecided "other race" vote breaks like 75/25 Biden.

Of course. But the Ďother raceí wouldnít tip the race in favor of Biden if he trails by, say, 12 points among white undecideds. Thatís what I was saying.

However, I think, unless things get worse, the undecideds will largely break for Trump, something like 60-40.


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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: July 09, 2020, 09:52:50 AM »

Wow. A 12% shift right now from 2015.

Even more interesting: Only 6% of whites are undecided. 11% of 'other race' are undecided. So this could really be a tight one, since that group is majorly lean Biden.

*rolls eyes*

23% of the respondents are Ďother raceí. 11% of them are undecided.
Thatís 2.5% of the electorate.

77% of the respondents are white. 6% of them are undecided.
Thatís 4.6% of the electorate.

I canít believe I have to explain this.


What I'm saying is, you could have a very close race if say, the undecided White vote breaks 50-50, and the undecided "other race" vote breaks like 75/25 Biden.

Of course. But the Ďother raceí wouldnít tip the race in favor of Biden if he trails by, say, 12 points among white undecideds. Thatís what I was saying.

However, I think, unless things get worse, the undecideds will largely break for Trump, something like 60-40.




Undecided breaking for Trump and Trump is 10 pts down in a Rassy poll
 

Wake me up when Trump gets within 2 pts of Biden. He hasnt been close since Covid 19. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: July 09, 2020, 09:53:21 AM »

However, I think, unless things get worse, the undecideds will largely break for Trump, something like 60-40.


Would you bet against that with Trump?
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2020, 10:04:15 AM »

It all depends on how hard Anchorage swings D.
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Woody
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« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2020, 10:13:52 AM »

What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #21 on: July 09, 2020, 10:16:18 AM »

What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points

For that to happen, Alaska would need to not only trend, but actually swing (ever so slightly), R.

In other words, here's how Bernie and HRC can still win.
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WD
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« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2020, 10:16:57 AM »

What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points

Based on what evidence?
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #23 on: July 09, 2020, 10:17:42 AM »

Democratic-trending state where Republicans are very reliant on either holding their own (Anchorage) or outright winning (Fairbanks) the two largest urban areas + shifts in migration patterns/voter coalitions/third-party support will have a significant impact due to the state's small electorate is very close in a Democratic wave environment. More at 11.
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Woody
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« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2020, 10:21:48 AM »

What's actually going to happen: Trump wins by +15 points

Based on what evidence?
COVID-19 barely making a dent in Alaska, tax cuts, oil boom, less 3rd party votes, increased defense spending, Alaska polls always underestimating republican numbers, Biden underperforming Clinton with native Alaskans, Alaska always swings for the incumbent, etc

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump breaks 60%
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