In what year will Atlas first see a poster cross the 100,000 post mark?

[Mr. Morden]

?

BRTD's leading the way at ~67,000 posts or so right now.  When will he (or anyone else who might catch up to him) reach 100,000, if ever?

[Mr. Morden]

If BRTD's current posting rate stays at its current level, it will have taken him 166 months to go from 0 to 100,000 posts. He has been on the forum for about 112 months. Therefore, he will cross the mark in 54 months, or 4.5 years. In other words, 2017.

But has that posting rate been staying the same, speeding up, or slowing down?  It looks like it's slowed down slightly, as page 2401 to page 1201 in his posting history takes 49 months, but 1201 to 1 takes 57 months.

Are we sure that nothing is going to happen in his life that diminishes his Atlas time?  I'd say it's more likely to slow down further than speed up.  So 2018 seems like a safer bet than 2017.

In any case, he's definitely the most likely to reach 100,000 posts first.  Though it's less clear cut who would be the next to reach 100,000 posts after him.

[Mr. Morden]

If average lifetime posting rate were to continue indefinitely, then I think the next person after BRTD to reach 100,000 would be Kal.  Even though he's way behind Lewis and Al now, his posting rate is over 25 posts a day:

Kalwejt: 25.761 posts/day, so 3882 days from July 2, 2009 to reach 100,000 = Feb. 17, 2020
Lewis Trondheim: 16.668 posts/day, so 5995 days from Jan. 20, 2004 to reach 100,000 = June 19, 2020
Al: 15.281 posts/day, so 6544 days from Oct. 29, 2003 to reach 100,000 = Sept. 28, 2021

Though I think Kal's posting rate has slowed down significantly since the early days.  All of the above assumes that the posters' overall posting rate continues indefinitely, but ignores the fact that the posting rate for most longtime posters has slowed down (and may well slow down further).

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Barfbag only registered a month ago, but is making 46 posts a day.  If he kept doing that indefinitely, he'd reach 100,000 in 2019. 

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Barfbag is banned, so his dream of reaching 100,000 posts by the end of the decade is dead.  BRTD's posting rate has slowed down, such that, at current pace, he won't reach 100,000 posts until 2018.  But other top posters have slowed down even faster.  Lewis is gone, so he's out of it.  Both Al and Kalwejt have slowed down enough that they wouldn't reach 100,000 until 2022.  So if BRTD does make it, he'll be the only 100,000+ poster for a long time.

[Mr. Morden]

Even with 2016 being an election year, I don't see BRTD's posting rate increasing so much that he's going to pass it any time soon.  Keep in mind, it's taken him a decade just to reach 70,000.  He needs another 30,000 to reach 100k.  Won't happen until 2018 at the earliest.  And then he'll be the only 100k+ poster for several years, because the other prolific posters are so far behind, and their posting rate has dropped off faster than his has.

EDIT: To put it another way, why would anyone expect BRTD's average posting rate in 2014-2016 to be greater than his average rate in 2004-2013?  OK, so maybe he posts more in election years, and 2016 is an election year, but so were 2004, 2008, and 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

The interesting question is who will be the second to cross 100,000 posts?

Like I said, if average posting rate were to continue indefnitely, it would be either Al or Kalwejt, some time in 2022.  Kalwejt is still way behind, but he registered much later, in 2009, so he's made it up to 37,000 posts very fast.  If he kept going at that rate, he'd get to 100k in 2022, around the same time Al does.

This assumes that Lewis doesn't come back.  If he hadn't left, he'd be another contender for second to 100k.

[Mr. Morden]

There is of course a "regression to the mean" effect.  The most prolific posters of the last decade won't necessarily be the most prolific of the next decade, and so all of these estimates may be too "optimistic".  It wouldn't shock me if, ten years from now, BRTD is still the only one to have reached 100k.