UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Battista Minola 1616]

Even Larry doesn't want anything to do with her.
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1575612283719278593

I checked his age and he is believed to be almost 16 (so pretty old for a cat). I wouldn't be surprised if Liz Truss ends up killing him like she did for the Queen and the British economy.

[MABA 2020]

Semi-serious question - can the Tories genuinely recover from such a bad loss? Especially given it appears their support for anyone under the age of 50 at this point has to be close to non-existant?

British politics is very volatile at the moment, it was less than three years ago when Labour was facing extinction with a loss most people thought would take them several terms to come back from.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but the current crash in Tory support is literally unprecedented in polling history - as is the fact it is transferring almost wholesale to Labour.

We have seen epochal electoral shifts in recent years - the 2015 GE saw both the collapse of Scottish Labour and emergent SNP hegemony, plus the near extinction of the LibDems (who lost over two in three of their 2010 voters, a stat that is maybe more overlooked than it should be) Be in no doubt - if Truss sticks rigidly to her present course and stays until a GE, a sub-1997 Tory result is very possible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's so. But (and this is critical) if bad things happen associated with a political party when that party is in government, reputational recovery has always tended to be rather longer. It's taken until, well, this year really, for Labour's reputation to rebound from the damage caused by the impact of the financial crisis, and it took the Conservatives until, well, the financial crisis to full recover their reputation from the impact of Black Wednesday...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/OOCThickOfIt/status/1576502896832585728

[bore]

Which given Opinium's methodology is meant to be rosy for the Tories.....yikes.

Another way of saying this is that any other pollster would have Labour 20 points ahead

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Even Larry doesn't want anything to do with her.
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1575612283719278593

I checked his age and he is believed to be almost 16 (so pretty old for a cat). I wouldn't be surprised if Liz Truss ends up killing him like she did for the Queen and the British economy.

Larry and I actually share a birth month and year.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Even Larry doesn't want anything to do with her.
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1575612283719278593

I checked his age and he is believed to be almost 16 (so pretty old for a cat). I wouldn't be surprised if Liz Truss ends up killing him like she did for the Queen and the British economy.

Larry and I actually share a birth month and year.

I did not know cats were allowed on Atlas.

[Torrain]

Odd behaviour amongst MPs this morning. The party chairman, Jake Berry, has given an interview on Sky News confirming that Tory MPs who sought to change or vote down the economic package would have the whip withdrawn.

This was met with immediate criticism by former chief whip Julian Smith, and a short time later Mel Stride and Michael Gove made similar comments - all suggesting they can’t support the full package (with the sticking point typically coming back to abolition of the 45% tax band).

By my reckoning, we’re up to 7 Tory MPs who’ve indicated they’ll vote no on the bill as it stands (James Cartlidge, Steve Double, Sir Charles Walker, Julian Smith, Simon Hoare, Michael Gove, Mel Stride). That’s only 1/5 of the number of rebels you’d need - but as is always the case with Tory rebellions, the number of private rebels is typically equal-larger than the number of public dissenters.

Might well all come to nothing - these things often flame out. However, if I were Truss, I’d be a little wary of a group comprised of former chief whips, retiring or marginal-seat MPs with nothing to lose, and Michael Gove looking for a last hurrah. Especially if the party faithful spend the next four days drinking through the evenings at conference, while those opposed to Truss boycott the event and spend the week scheming and ringing up nervous marginal-seat MPs.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

And talking like the crassest variety of American "construction company founder or semiretired software engineer who had a windfall IPO in the nineties, ran directly for the Senate or a governorship fifteen years later, and won" while he does it. "A great day for freedom"? Isn't this guy supposed to be some kind of Oxbridge historian?

[IceAgeComing]

Gove speaking out feels notable: standing down at the next election so he has nothing to lose; been in government under every PM from Cameron to Johnson and seems to have decent popularity in the parliamentary party. The group that's building up isn't the normal rebel crowd and if we assume that a lot of that group vote against as well then you're getting very close to a situation where you lose the vote or only win very narrowly: and if you follow up by removing the whip then suddenly you've turned a majority of 71 into a paper minority government; or a very narrow majority. Now I think its fair to assume that they'd be fine in terms of avoiding losing confidence votes in that situation (suspect that a large chunk of that group would want the whip back before the next election and even if they are banking on a change of PM I suspect voting to defeat the government on a confidence vote would be a step too far for any future Tory leader) but it'd make passing any complex legislative programme very difficult because you'd have this group of Independent Conservatives who aren't bound by the whip and who can work with the opposition to block or amend the most toxic bits of their programme.

This to me feels a lot like them trying to copy what Boris did last time: where he stood his ground on Brexit; managed to purge the Parliamentary Tory Party of its biggest critics (mainly the pre-Europe ones) and resulted in a general election victory. Key different here: the Labour Party were incredibly unpopular, Boris was doing all of this to progress Brexit which had been voted for in a referendum so he had a very strong mandate; he was personally popular and the Tories were leading in the polls so they had a carrot to use to go for an early election; and he didn't tank the economy on his first real week on the job. This is why this won't work: everyone knows that the government losing in a confidence vote brings Labour in with a very large majority for at least five years and the Tories have taken a massive credibility hit; no one likes their policies and there's no mandate for them in Parliament. That prevents the government from pressing the nuclear option; allows Tory MPs more free reign to vote against the government (most MPs don't like being in opposition; especially those who really are ambitious and want government jobs) and makes sure that the opposition will pounce on any issue that might force the government to go.

[Torrain]

Worth noting, Gove was just laying the groundwork this morning - he has a full interview with the Telegraph’s Chris Hope at a fringe event this afternoon, and has been doubling-down:

”Liz has a mandate on the basis of the case that she made… what was not discussed during the leadership election was the prospect of income tax cuts and in particular income tax cuts for the very wealthiest”

He’s been backed up by Rachel Wolf (co-author of the 2019 manifesto) who put out a similar line in the past hour. She’s talking about the 2019 mandate, rather than Truss’s personal mandate from the party membership, but the concerns seem to be similar.

[Torrain]

It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

And talking like the crassest variety of American "construction company founder or semiretired software engineer who had a windful IPO in the nineties, ran directly for the Senate or a governorship fifteen years later, and won" while he does it. "A great day for freedom"? Isn't this guy supposed to be some kind of Oxbridge historian?

While you’d see it on the fringes, that kind of GOP-adjacent rhetoric was pretty rare until recently. Farage and Johnson used a lot during the referendum, which Johnson continued in his premiership. But that was always about Brexit-related issues of ‘national sovereignty’. Members of the cabinet using this sort of language for economics and taxation seems very new.

[Blair]

Odd behaviour amongst MPs this morning. The party chairman, Jake Berry, has given an interview on Sky News confirming that Tory MPs who sought to change or vote down the economic package would have the whip withdrawn.

This was met with immediate criticism by former chief whip Julian Smith, and a short time later Mel Stride and Michael Gove made similar comments - all suggesting they can’t support the full package (with the sticking point typically coming back to abolition of the 45% tax band).

By my reckoning, we’re up to 7 Tory MPs who’ve indicated they’ll vote no on the bill as it stands (James Cartlidge, Steve Double, Sir Charles Walker, Julian Smith, Simon Hoare, Michael Gove, Mel Stride). That’s only 1/5 of the number of rebels you’d need - but as is always the case with Tory rebellions, the number of private rebels is typically equal-larger than the number of public dissenters.

Might well all come to nothing - these things often flame out. However, if I were Truss, I’d be a little wary of a group comprised of former chief whips, retiring or marginal-seat MPs with nothing to lose, and Michael Gove looking for a last hurrah. Especially if the party faithful spend the next four days drinking through the evenings at conference, while those opposed to Truss boycott the event and spend the week scheming and ringing up nervous marginal-seat MPs.

It was a huge mistake of Truss to appoint only loyalists to her cabinet, especially when she had less than 50% of the parliamentary party supporting her & when her campaign was so vicious. Gordon Brown won the leadership by acclamation in 2007 and at least gave major roles to some Blairites... 

A number of people like Grant Shapps could have been given jobs and equally it was a mistake not to have more experienced figures in the cabinet.

Kwarteng, Rees-Mogg, Clarke and Philp were all pretty minor figures in the Johnson era in terms of public facing communications and campaigning. They're now the faces of the economy and have embarked on a deeply unpopular decisions which have no mandate- and look at what they've done in just a week!

The most hilarious thing was seeing Clarke saying that cuts are needed as we've been in a Fools Paradise which is a pretty damning critique of the Governments he served in!

I was surprised by the opposition to the 45P tax cut; but it has become clear that this tax cut needs sweeping cuts to benefits and other public services to pay for it and sedate the markets- and Conservative MPs don't love the tax cut that much.

I'm also slightly convinced the pandemic has changed attitudes to welfare- as has the cost of living crisis. There is still that 'people on benefits get mobile phones and big TVs' culture on parts of social media but it certainly seems less than it was- when the price of 4 pints of milk goes up by 25p in a matter of months I guess people's attitudes change.

[Blair]

Gove is also fascinating- it is forgotten that he was a devout part of the modernising movement around Cameron and while the Cameron set certainly birthed Trussism in a way (spin over substance, a wilful disregard about what cuts to public spending does etc) it equally can be said that Gove comes from the modernising tradition and understands that politics has changed- as it did in the 2000s and as it did now.

[mileslunn]

Fact only cabinet wasn't told about the abolition of additional rate of 45% is telling.  Probably suggests knew didn't have full backing so this was way to push it through.  Anyways even if many Tories may in theory support abolishing it, most have enough sense to know you don't give tax cuts to wealthy when many struggling.  Timing was horrible.  Some point out George Osborne cut additional rate from 50% to 45% a decade ago, but that actually was backed by many independent groups including IFS.  Never mind it was coalition then and LibDems could have vetoed it if a bad idea so had much broader support.  Many economists argue when top rates exceed 50%, it creates a psychological barrier as government taking more than half so actually there is lots of reasons for it not to hit 50% even though some economists disagree.  By contrast only your supply side types think 45% is too high.

[omar04]

Gove is also fascinating- it is forgotten that he was a devout part of the modernising movement around Cameron and while the Cameron set certainly birthed Trussism in a way (spin over substance, a wilful disregard about what cuts to public spending does etc) it equally can be said that Gove comes from the modernising tradition and understands that politics has changed- as it did in the 2000s and as it did now.

From what I can tell, Cameron had brains but not enough guts, and Truss has guts but not enough brains

[mileslunn]

Apparently Truss' father is not a huge fan of her politics.  Both her parents were fairly left wing and her father is a retired professor of mathematics from University of Leeds.  While not in her riding, I wonder if her father will vote Conservative out of love for daughter or will his opposition to her policies mean he votes Labour?

[omar04]

Apparently Truss' father is not a huge fan of her politics.  Both her parents were fairly left wing and her father is a retired professor of mathematics from University of Leeds.  While not in her riding, I wonder if her father will vote Conservative out of love for daughter or will his opposition to her policies mean he votes Labour?

her mother would be more likely to vote for the Conservatives than her father.

[EastAnglianLefty]

When she was originally selected her mother agreed to campaign for her but her father refused. I suspect he ordinarily votes for candidates to the left of Labour - Leeds has historically been reasonably strong for the alphabet left.

[MABA 2020]

Gove is also fascinating- it is forgotten that he was a devout part of the modernising movement around Cameron and while the Cameron set certainly birthed Trussism in a way (spin over substance, a wilful disregard about what cuts to public spending does etc) it equally can be said that Gove comes from the modernising tradition and understands that politics has changed- as it did in the 2000s and as it did now.

Could Gove also be motivated by the possibility of bringing down Truss and putting himself forward as a unity candidate?
(I don't think this is likely, just raising it for fun)

[JimJamUK]

For our Labour people, was Lee Anderson always this right wing when in Labour or has he got the zeal of a convert?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-says-economy-only-28136853

[Blair]

For our Labour people, was Lee Anderson always this right wing when in Labour or has he got the zeal of a convert?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mp-says-economy-only-28136853

I cannot comment specifically on Lee Anderson- but his type really wouldn't be that unique among local councillors especially in areas such as Ashfield where Labour were virtually the only meal ticket & where the opposition were the Lib Dems (and later an independent residents group)

There use to be a breed of CLP activists & local councillors in the North-East who considered the Conservatives soft on social issues while still being considered as being on the 'left' of Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When she was originally selected her mother agreed to campaign for her but her father refused. I suspect he ordinarily votes for candidates to the left of Labour - Leeds has historically been reasonably strong for the alphabet left.

Yes, this makes sense. Reading between the lines of what has been said of his politics, he appears to be either a Trot or a Tankie, whereas her mother is - or at least was - a Liberal Democrat: stood as a paper candidate for them in a hopeless ward about twenty years ago. They are divorced.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For our Labour people, was Lee Anderson always this right wing when in Labour or has he got the zeal of a convert?

Not exactly (or if he was, then nobody knew about it), but he was a racist idiot which is why the suspension that triggered his defection occurred.