MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I think she's the most endangered. Hard to see her hanging on again unless it's a good Democratic year, or Republicans nominate a weak candidate.

What makes Donnelly less endangered? I'm aware he survived 2010, but his opponent was Walorski - not exactly the strongest specimen.

Donnelly has charted a more moderate path in the Senate than McCaskill and was part of the Blue Dogs while in the House. He also has stayed clear of making incendiary SJW-esque comments unlike McCaskill and is from a state (Indiana) that is probably a little less red than Missouri.

Claire McCaskill is also more vulnerable than Heidi Heitkamp for that reason as well. 

Honestly, I have to agree that I don't see much of a way forward for her other than a Democratic wave or a really poor Republican opponent. I really think that "shut the hell up" comment is probably the last nail in the coffin for her otherwise.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Well, let's operate under the hypothetical assumption that 2018 ends up being a Democratic year. One question we've never answered is, can an unpopular incumbent senator be defeated in a state that leans against that incumbent during a wave for that incumbent's party? Tom Wolf showed us that the answer is yes for governors, but I wonder how this pans out in a senatorial election.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Wagner vs. McCaskill would be a SAFE R race.

I'm inclined to agree with this. Any credible non-joke Republican candidate should win fairly easily, but yeah... I'm not entirely sold on Hawley either, to say the least. There are better options. Anyway, looks like we will get a poll here very soon:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/RGreggKeller/status/851078771062996993

Also, Wagner has raised $2.7 million already.

Well, that's what happens when you tell half your constituents to shut the **** up.