New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[smoltchanov]

Thanks for great analysis! IMHO - may be slightly too bullish, but that's understandable))))

[smoltchanov]

Frontrunner Dick Hinch wins a close race for speaker. Let's see who he almost lost to. He must be de...

https://twitter.com/DaveSolomon72/status/1068258865609875456?s=19


AHAHAHAHAHA

AAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

At least Hinch seems to be a "pragmatic conservative". By present day stanards that's a sort of achievement already...

[smoltchanov]

I have a "double feeling" about that: understand a frustration of "partisan Democrats", but - still glad, that such notion, as friendship, surpasses ideological disagreements sometimes. That rarely happens now in our "scoundrel's time"....

[smoltchanov]

I have a "double feeling" about that: understand a frustration of "partisan Democrats", but - still glad, that such notion, as friendship, surpasses ideological disagreements sometimes. That rarely happens now in our "scoundrel's time"....

yay naked cronyism!!! so beautiful

I frequently quarrell with my friends, but would always vote for ANY of them over ANY ideological "principles"....

[smoltchanov]

I have a "double feeling" about that: understand a frustration of "partisan Democrats", but - still glad, that such notion, as friendship, surpasses ideological disagreements sometimes. That rarely happens now in our "scoundrel's time"....

yay naked cronyism!!! so beautiful

Yeah, I have to say, in this instance, if they are voting for him based on some vague years-old "personal connection" despite Gardner having little in common with them with regards to election policy, then that is pretty blatant cronyism. Gardner isn't some election god, he's just another guy who has outstayed his welcome. They could have given him the boot today and New Hampshire's elections and presidential primaries would have kept on ticking just fine.

As i said - it was for them to decide. They (just as i would do) seem to preferred friendship over ideological expediency. You think differently - it's your right.

[smoltchanov]

I have a "double feeling" about that: understand a frustration of "partisan Democrats", but - still glad, that such notion, as friendship, surpasses ideological disagreements sometimes. That rarely happens now in our "scoundrel's time"....

yay naked cronyism!!! so beautiful

Yeah, I have to say, in this instance, if they are voting for him based on some vague years-old "personal connection" despite Gardner having little in common with them with regards to election policy, then that is pretty blatant cronyism. Gardner isn't some election god, he's just another guy who has outstayed his welcome. They could have given him the boot today and New Hampshire's elections and presidential primaries would have kept on ticking just fine.

As i said - it was for them to decide. They (just as i would do) seem to preferred friendship over ideological expediency. You think differently - it's your right.

Unfortunately for them, they were elected for their policy positions, not for their friends.

They were elected as candidates and persons, not "party robots". If they voters like them - they will reelect them, if not - not. That's exactly why i not only don't give a damn about present day parties, but - utterly despise them all.

[smoltchanov]

I have a "double feeling" about that: understand a frustration of "partisan Democrats", but - still glad, that such notion, as friendship, surpasses ideological disagreements sometimes. That rarely happens now in our "scoundrel's time"....

yay naked cronyism!!! so beautiful

Yeah, I have to say, in this instance, if they are voting for him based on some vague years-old "personal connection" despite Gardner having little in common with them with regards to election policy, then that is pretty blatant cronyism. Gardner isn't some election god, he's just another guy who has outstayed his welcome. They could have given him the boot today and New Hampshire's elections and presidential primaries would have kept on ticking just fine.

As i said - it was for them to decide. They (just as i would do) seem to preferred friendship over ideological expediency. You think differently - it's your right.

Unfortunately for them, they were elected for their policy positions, not for their friends.

They were elected as candidates and persons, not "party robots". If they voters like them - they will reelect them, if not - not. That's exactly why i not only don't give a damn about present day parties, but - utterly despise them all.

Not sure a Russian would know much about politicians and the people who like or dislike them considering Russia's awesome history with unbiased and fair democratic values.

I am ready to bet - i know much more then you do, It's a field of my interests for 45 years. And to base my knowledge on Russian history is an idiotism, pure and simple. So - who you are? Answer is obvious .....

[smoltchanov]

They were elected as candidates and persons, not "party robots". If they voters like them - they will reelect them, if not - not. That's exactly why i not only don't give a damn about present day parties, but - utterly despise them all.

Personally, I could support a Republican whose views on elections leaned pro-voter access (aka in line with Democrats, more or less). It doesn't have to be a partisan affair.

Agree. But this time old connections and friendship prevailed. Wait until next time. Even more - with Democratic majorities in both Houses of legislature Gardner's positions became almost symbolic and far less important, then with Republican one before.

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, i suppose "political institutions" knew precisely what they were doing. And tend to trust their opinion.

[smoltchanov]

How many seats do the New Hampshire dems have?
Are there any areas they can improve in?

14 in state Senate, and (IIRC) 234 - in House

[smoltchanov]

The Executive Council just voted down Gordon MacDonald’s nomination, 3-2 along party lines

Sununu's not happy and has withdrawn all nominations (presumably until MacDonald is confirmed). He's also vetoed a massive amount of bills.

Well, exactly what I would do if MY nominations were treated this way.... IIRC - Democrats don't have veto-proof majority in Legislature, and, generally, unlike previous years, voting in legislature was extremely polarized (presumably - because Democrats pushed strongly liberal platform hard)....

[smoltchanov]

The Executive Council just voted down Gordon MacDonald’s nomination, 3-2 along party lines

Sununu's not happy and has withdrawn all nominations (presumably until MacDonald is confirmed). He's also vetoed a massive amount of bills.

Well, exactly what I would do if MY nominations were treated this way.... IIRC - Democrats don't have veto-proof majority in Legislature, and, generally, unlike previous years, voting in legislature was extremely polarized (presumably - because Democrats pushed strongly liberal platform hard)....

It's just par for the course in the game Sununu likes to play. He's the guy who made one of, if not his first major action in office to restrict the ability of his political opponents to vote - namely students, who are notably left-leaning. So let us break out the world's smallest violin for his judicial woes.

Well, "if you attack me i will do the same to you" is a first rule of politics... In fact - not only a politics, but life as a whole..

[smoltchanov]

The Executive Council just voted down Gordon MacDonald’s nomination, 3-2 along party lines

Sununu's not happy and has withdrawn all nominations (presumably until MacDonald is confirmed). He's also vetoed a massive amount of bills.

Well, exactly what I would do if MY nominations were treated this way.... IIRC - Democrats don't have veto-proof majority in Legislature, and, generally, unlike previous years, voting in legislature was extremely polarized (presumably - because Democrats pushed strongly liberal platform hard)....

The Legislature doesn't handle nominations. The Executive Council does. They are the ones who have "veto power" over nominees and chose to exercise it.

Sorry, you are absolutely correct. In such case i would do everything possible and impossible to defeat corresponding EC members...

[smoltchanov]

The Executive Council just voted down Gordon MacDonald’s nomination, 3-2 along party lines

Sununu's not happy and has withdrawn all nominations (presumably until MacDonald is confirmed). He's also vetoed a massive amount of bills.

Well, exactly what I would do if MY nominations were treated this way.... IIRC - Democrats don't have veto-proof majority in Legislature, and, generally, unlike previous years, voting in legislature was extremely polarized (presumably - because Democrats pushed strongly liberal platform hard)....

It's just par for the course in the game Sununu likes to play. He's the guy who made one of, if not his first major action in office to restrict the ability of his political opponents to vote - namely students, who are notably left-leaning. So let us break out the world's smallest violin for his judicial woes.

Well, "if you attack me i will do the same to you" is a first rule of politics... In fact - not only a politics, but life as a whole..

Don't propagate.

I live long enough to state that as one of the basic axioms of life. Too many real-life examples...

[smoltchanov]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

The same in almost all New England: if you are moderate (and especially - at least somewhat liberal) - you have much better career perspectives in Democratic party (Kuster parents were liberal Republicans in the past). So, essentially, only ultraconservatives, who have nowhere else to go, remain in Republican party. The mirror image situation of what we observe in many parts of the South, where there are no reasons for you to be a conservative Democrat when you may have much better career as Republican.

[smoltchanov]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

The same in almost all New England: if you are moderate (and especially - at least somewhat liberal) - you have much better career perspectives in Democratic party (Kuster parents were liberal Republicans in the past). So, essentially, only ultraconservatives, who have nowhere else to go, remain in Republican party. The mirror image situation of what we observe in many parts of the South, where there are no reasons for you to be a conservative Democrat when you may have much better career as Republican.

I just find it particularly frustrating in New Hampshire, where there are winnable races that get thrown away because the party base is too insistent on nominating partisan Republicans, or just very conservative candidates in swing districts. At this point only Maine and New Hampshire have competitive state GOPs at every level in New England (Connecticut is on the cusp of relevance, I suppose) and they keep kneecapping themselves by playing to the base while ignoring the 1/3rd of voters who are independent.

The NH GOP also seems pretty much uncontrollable. I know my State Rep at home, a Republican, likes to brag about how little power the GOP whips have in the State House, and recently I've actually seen GOP grassroots groups on social media calling the Republican governor a tyrant in light of his response to COVID. Putting the policy merits aside, the fact that the NH GOP allows its local branches to be vocally critical of the de facto leader of the state party is just sort of representative of the total lack of organization and discipline in the state party right now. I guess that's true in a lot of states, but it seems pretty pronounced here sometimes. It wouldn't be so frustrating if it were say Vermont or Mass (where this stuff also happens), where the GOP is consigned to irrelevance for the foreseeable future, but the NH GOP actually has a shot every now and again and they just always manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 

Fully agree. With such insistence on far right candidates Sununu may become "the last of the Mohicans" in New Hampshire, as Phil Scott and Charlie Baker almost surely are in Vermont and Massachusetts

[smoltchanov]

* Democrats elected Renny Cushing to be their leader. I'm very pleasantly surprised, and glad to see that at least one state party is looking for unity with the left.

So, Democrats in NH wish to prolonge their stay in minority?

[smoltchanov]

* Democrats elected Renny Cushing to be their leader. I'm very pleasantly surprised, and glad to see that at least one state party is looking for unity with the left.

So, Democrats in NH wish to prolonge their stay in minority?

You clearly don't know Renny Cushing if you're saying that. He's a leftist, but he's much closer to Mondaire Jones's or Andru Volinsky's style than someone like me or AOC. He knows how to get things done (and has - he's the reason we have death penalty repeal!), and he's a unifier.

The NHDP's approach to the Bernie/leftist caucus in the state is a refreshing change from the DNC screaming "REEEEE HE'S A BERNIE BRO WE CAN'T ENDORSE HIM". If the national party was anything like my state party, I'd still be a Democrat.

You - may be. Many - wouldn't (exactly because of that). And, obviously, living in Moscow i don't know Renny Cushing. But i DO know Berniecrats "in general" (yes, there are some in Moscow too...)

[smoltchanov]

You clearly don't know Renny Cushing if you're saying that. He's a leftist, but he's much closer to Mondaire Jones's or Andru Volinsky's style than someone like me or AOC. He knows how to get things done (and has - he's the reason we have death penalty repeal!), and he's a unifier.

The NHDP's approach to the Bernie/leftist caucus in the state is a refreshing change from the DNC screaming "REEEEE HE'S A BERNIE BRO WE CAN'T ENDORSE HIM". If the national party was anything like my state party, I'd still be a Democrat.

You - may be. Many - wouldn't (exactly because of that). And, obviously, living in Moscow i don't know Renny Cushing. But i DO know Berniecrats "in general"..

It seems extremely Atlas brain to suggest that there would be enough of a swing because the House Minority Leader is a Berniecrat. Nobody really knows who the Speaker is, let alone the Minority Leader!

Let's see. But i don't think that at least somewhat polarizing figure is of big help just after party lost it's majority in legislature. Not sure whether some moderate Republicans are left, but some years ago Democrats and Republican moderates successfully blocked ultra-right Republican for Speaker forming a sort of working coalition (or, at least, electing moderate Speaker). But for this to happen there must be some concessions from BOTH sides. And minimum polarizing figures in leadership.

[smoltchanov]

You clearly don't know Renny Cushing if you're saying that. He's a leftist, but he's much closer to Mondaire Jones's or Andru Volinsky's style than someone like me or AOC. He knows how to get things done (and has - he's the reason we have death penalty repeal!), and he's a unifier.

The NHDP's approach to the Bernie/leftist caucus in the state is a refreshing change from the DNC screaming "REEEEE HE'S A BERNIE BRO WE CAN'T ENDORSE HIM". If the national party was anything like my state party, I'd still be a Democrat.

You - may be. Many - wouldn't (exactly because of that). And, obviously, living in Moscow i don't know Renny Cushing. But i DO know Berniecrats "in general"..

It seems extremely Atlas brain to suggest that there would be enough of a swing because the House Minority Leader is a Berniecrat. Nobody really knows who the Speaker is, let alone the Minority Leader!

Let's see. But i don't think an at least somewhat polarizing figure is of big help just after party lost it's majority in legislature. Not sure whether some moderate Republicans are left, but some years ago Democrats and Republican moderates successfully blocked ultra-right Republican for Speaker forming a sort of working coalition. But for this to happen there must be some concessions from BOTH sides. And minimum polarizing figures in leadership.

Cushing isn't a polarizing figure, though. You have to be REALLY bad in order to be known here (like Bill O'Brien, the ultra-right Republican you mentioned, was in 2010). Even then O'Brien was more infamous for being a scumbag than being far-right. There was a "moderate revolt" in 2014.because he was an awful leader who waged war against his own party!

It's more about personality rather than ideology. Cushing doesn't have the personality to become a bogeyman.

Good, if so. As i said - we shall see in the near future..