New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[NHI]

Great breakdown; I largely agree with your analysis. The Democrats are in better shape last night than I expected. GOP is running against strong headwinds and with a solid Dem gov nominee they should have a very good night.

[NHI]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1063158645750460417

The House Dem preference count revealed. The magic number, for the record, is 213, since the House and Senate both vote. 24 Democrats were absent. Republicans plan to unite around Gardner. The magic number for Democratic defectors is 34 for Republicans.

This leaves the Senate. Lou D'Allesandro (who's an institution in Manchester politics and isn't beholden to the establishment) is defecting to Gardner, but the rest seem firmly in Van Ostern's corner. There's too much new blood. That means Democrats need 21 more votes.

Most of the scuttlebutt seems to say Van Ostern is favored, but if you want me to be honest, I think it's a pure toss-up. Sullivan's supporters seem to oppose CVO's reforms, and while he hasn't endorsed, he's certainly angry at the NHDP for what he perceives to be a coronation. Assuming Sullivan's supporters break for Gardner and the ratio holds for the absentees, Dems would just barely be at 214. This could really go either way.

It's a roll of the dice. At the moment I think CVO narrowly...

[NHI]

As an aside, Steve Stepanek, Trump's old campaign chair up here, is running for NHGOP chair. It's currently unclear if the current GOP chair, Wayne MacDonald, will run again. There are a few candidates that have been floated.

The NHGOP has had massive turnover for its chairmanship. In the 10 years since the NHDP elected Ray Buckley, NH Republicans have had five different chairpeople, and one of them was to nonconsecutive terms. This sheds some light on their electoral problems and relative underperformance compared to other state parties.

* Wayne MacDonald - Incumbent and former chair from 2011-2013. Possible retirement.
* Matt Mayberry - Former Vice Chair, and high-ranking member of the state's Log Cabin Republicans. Most definitely a member of the old guard.
* Kate Day - Activist in Cheshire County. Seems to be a fairly generic conservative.
* Dan Hynes - Two-time failed state senate candidate. Former DUI lawyer. A meme in most circles.
* Michael Biundo - Former Santorum campaign chair. Worked for Kasich and Rand in 2016 before circling the wagon around Trump. Was an instrumental figure recently in Eddie Edwards's campaign, and was Frank Guinta's campaign manager for most of his runs. IMO he'd probably be the strongest, unifying the old guard and the new guard.
* Stephen Stepanek - Early Trumpist and O'Brienite. Former state rep.

I can see Stepankek or Biundo getting the chairmanship. The GOP base is angry at the party establishment and hading the reins back over the old guard will not sit well. And you're spot on, the GOP has been a revolving door in the state, lack of a consistent and effective chair, coupled with party infighting has weakened the state party. The Democrats have their act together, and the midterms are the latest evidence of that!

[NHI]

Very true. My gut tells me Biundo would be the best choice. He seems like he'd unify the old guard and the base, and would be much less toxic than Stepanek.

Agreed

[NHI]

This party really is screwed.

[NHI]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1068479740514840577?s=19

If he wins, Gardner sounds very likely to retire after this term.

Someone hold me. I could see more defectors because of this.

[NHI]

5 former governors (Lynch/Merrill/Benson/Gregg/John H. Sununu) are hosting a rally for Gardner.

WHY???

What the f**k is the Democratic case for Gardner?

To most politicians, their friendships are much more important and tangible than the impact of policy on the lives of their constituents. "I have known this man for a long time, and he is a good, respectable public servant, even if we don't always agree."

Essentially this. Most of his backers are over 70 (and remember the time where he was an actual bipartisan institution). One of them even used to teach him.

Last grasp of the establishment...

My money is on CVO narrowly winning tomorrow.

[NHI]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

[NHI]

She’s literally a woman named Karen who was mad that she couldn’t get a haircut during lockdown.

This is 2020 in a nutshell...

On her primary run, she doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell of beating Sununu, but I Fear she’ll weaken Sununu and divided an already riled up base just enough to flip the election to Feltes

[NHI]

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1622&context=survey_center_polls
I know people are critical of UNH polls to some extent, but I will say this is an interesting finding at least from a ballpark standpoint: they're projecting that the GOP takes back the State House and tie the Senate.

It seems like UNH has had very bullish numbers for the GOP this time around. I mean we also had the poll showing something like a 4 point margin in NH-02, so take it with a grain of salt. Still some interesting numbers.

Interesting poll, though I'm highly skeptical of UNH's. Last Governor's race they had it tied and Sununu won 52% to 45%

[NHI]

Tom Sherman is officially exploring. He's been long-rumored to be interested and would be a fine candidate. Seems to at least be moving away from the COVID lunacy, so he has a chance. He's good enough to earn my vote to stop Sununu.

The new SD-24 is probably Mindi's if she wants it. It swaps some of the Republican south/western parts of the old district with the town of Exeter, making it pretty much safe if she's looking for a comeback.

I’m encouraged by this move. If he focuses on Sununu’s record, then he has a good chance at winning.