New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[Morning in Atlas]

Van Ostern's lose for NH SOS was horrible for the Democrats.

The Secretary of State is a Democrat though

Bill Gardner ran as the de facto Republican nominee. The Secretary of State election here is nominally nonpartisan, but is elected by the state legislature. Gardner was never really seen as a political figure. The NHGOP had plenty of chances to vote him out - even when they had a supermajority in both houses - but never did. Up until 2017, everyone saw Gardner as the defender of the New Hampshire primary.

All that changed when Gardner backed Trump's voter fraud commission. Publicly backing all the NHGOP's schemes to suppress the student vote also didn't help, but Democrats were mainly upset with Gardner's support for a partisan hit job. The entire affair burned all of his goodwill with the party, and they turned on him.

While unseating Gardner would have been a tough task, I believe the loss was very avoidable. Van Ostern was running a glorified pay-to-play scheme. Essentially, if you were a Democrat running for the legislature and promised to vote for him, you got financial support from his PAC. This, combined with his lack of experience in election law, caused a lot of people to think his election would inject partisanship into the office. In true Democratic Party fashion, the establishment decided to blindly follow the money and crown him as the nominee, even with a better candidate already in the race.

I do believe that former Manchester alderman/state rep Peter Sulivan would have won. Sullivan essentially marketed himself as a nonpartisan reformist. While he opposed Van Ostern and Gardner, he believed Van Ostern was a more blatant political hack. In Sullivan's concession speech, he all but endorsed Gardner, angry that the NHDP chose to chase money over reform. And so, Sullivan's supporters chose keeping money out of the office over electing a true-blue Democrat.

Most importantly, the olds weren't moving. This bloc was made up of long-serving Democratic legislators with strong ties to the local community, like Barbara Shaw and Lou D'Allesandro. They have decades personal ties with Gardner, and didn't need Van Ostern's money to survive. They basically said "nice guy FF, still voting for him " and ignored the party's concerns about the commission. These people were going to vote for Gardner, whether Van Ostern or Sullivan won. At the same time, there were very legitimate concerns about Van Ostern's partisanship and pay-to-play scheme that the NHDP ignored.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

and he resigned.

Good.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1270524369526194182

It appears that Chris Sununu will receive a primary challenger to his right, angry with his response to Covid-19. He already had a token challenger (a man who legally changed his name to "Nobody).

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1270524369526194182

It appears that Chris Sununu will receive a primary challenger to his right, angry with his response to Covid-19. He already had a token challenger (a man who legally changed his name to "Nobody).

This clown is back?

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1270524369526194182

It appears that Chris Sununu will receive a primary challenger to his right, angry with his response to Covid-19. He already had a token challenger (a man who legally changed his name to "Nobody).

This clown is back?

Oh yes indeed. She obviously doesn't stand a chance, but her running is pretty much emblematic of the discord that has marked the NH GOP for quite a while, and has intensified recently with Sununu's COVID response. Anecdotally, I can say that there is a pretty vocal faction within the party that has decided that Sununu is a "RINO" and no longer worthy of support and I guess Testerman is their voice in the primary.

[Holmes]

She’s literally a woman named Karen who was mad that she couldn’t get a haircut during lockdown.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

She’s literally a woman named Karen who was mad that she couldn’t get a haircut during lockdown.

If Sununu is losing the Karen vote, it's time to move this state to a tossup at the gubernatorial level; maybe even lean D.

[NHI]

She’s literally a woman named Karen who was mad that she couldn’t get a haircut during lockdown.

This is 2020 in a nutshell...

On her primary run, she doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell of beating Sununu, but I Fear she’ll weaken Sununu and divided an already riled up base just enough to flip the election to Feltes

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

She’s literally a woman named Karen who was mad that she couldn’t get a haircut during lockdown.

This is 2020 in a nutshell...

On her primary run, she doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell of beating Sununu, but I Fear she’ll weaken Sununu and divided an already riled up base just enough to flip the election to Feltes

Don’t get my hopes up

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1270524369526194182

It appears that Chris Sununu will receive a primary challenger to his right, angry with his response to Covid-19. He already had a token challenger (a man who legally changed his name to "Nobody).

OF COURSE HER NAME IS KAREN.

[Horsemask]

Ok Karen

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1271125686275780613

Executive Council rejects another political crony with no education experience to the state BOE.

But Sununu's totally a moderate like Scott and Baker, guys!

[Morning in Atlas]

Some Executive Council ratings:

EC-1: (D+1) It turns out the fifth time was the charm for long-time Grafton County Commissioner Mike Cryans (D-Hanover), who beat Joe Kenney in this northern district after their fourth electoral matchup. This seat flipping was an actual shock, as it had trended heavily to Republicans. Nevertheless, Grafton's deep-blue tint helped tilt the district. With the elasticity of the seat, I could see this going either way. Toss-up

EC-2: (D+7) The "crescent moon district", which has become NH's symbol for gerrymandering, is safe. However, there's a clown car primary with six candidates. I've talked about Surdukowski, Plunkett, Warmington, and Soldati, but I haven't talked about the other two. The old guard seems to be coalescing around Warmington, with scattered support among the rest.



John Shea (D-Nelson) is an interesting story. After signing up to run as a sacrificial lamb against a 12-year-incumbent, he wound up winning. After losing in 2010, he's run every time the seat's been open and lost in the primary.

The next candidate is state representative and farmer Craig Thompson (D-Harrisville). He may very well have the endorsement of Volinsky, and seems like he has a lot of progressive support. One major downside is that he supports updating our election registration to match the Motor Voter law, which is generally seen as the thing holding Republicans back from repealing election-day registration.

I would probably be leaning towards Warmington or Plunkett if I lived in the district. I'm not sure who Plunkett endorsed (whether it be Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Warren), but as I've described I'm not a fan of Mayor Pete, especially considering recent events. While Thompson is closer to my beliefs, I'm troubled that he would remove the one thing stopping Republicans from enacting their ideal voter suppression agenda. I would probably vote third-party over Surdukowski.

Republicans are running former NH-2 candidate Stewart Levenson (R-Concord). Either way, it's Safe D. In a wave, this might be attainable, but not now.

NH-3: (R+4) This inelastic district is vacant, due to a retirement. Former NH-1 candidate/state representative Mindi Messmer (D-Rye) has a challenger in 5-term state rep Patty Lovejoy (D-Exeter), who's running a campaign stressing her experience. Lovejoy has the backing of House leadership, while Messmer has the backing of everyone else (most notably being Annie Kuster's only endorsement in a competitive primary). Lovejoy's run just seems like too little too late - as someone in the area, I didn't even know she was running. The party's united around Messmer.

The Republican primary is crowded. Former state rep Tim Comerford (R-Fremont) is facing off against former candidate/businessman Bruce Crochetiere (R-Hampton) and businesswoman Janet Stevens (R-Rye). Crochetiere seems like the overwhelming favorite, being endorsed by Innis along with the conservative grassroots. I'm actually liking our chances here - Messmer is a strong, compelling candidate, and despite her left-wing views, she's proven to be a rising star in the party. Toss-up

NH-4: (R+3) Former Manchester mayor/state senator Ted Gatsas (R) had a successful comeback bid against businessman Gray Chynoweth, flipping this seat back. Although it's trended towards Clinton slightly, Gatsas managed to eke out a win, flipping the seat. Democrats are running former AFL/CIO head and NH-1 candidate Mark MacKenzie (D-Manchester). While he had Chris Pappas cutting into his base, he made a few missteps, alienating long-time allies and trying to rat**** other candidates. A friend who's close with the MacKenzie campaign told me his campaign was in total disarray, and I don't expect things to be different now. Lean R

NH-5: (R+1) Councilor Debora Pignatelli (D-Nashua) is going up against former state senate Majority Leader Bob Clegg (R-Hudson) or former councilor David Wheeler. While the district is trending away, Pignatelli is a strong candidate with a lot of ties to the Nashua area. Lean D

[Brother Jonathan]

Some Executive Council ratings:

EC-1: (D+1) It turns out the fifth time was the charm for long-time Grafton County Commissioner Mike Cryans (D-Hanover), who beat Joe Kenney in this northern district after their fourth electoral matchup. This seat flipping was an actual shock, as it had trended heavily to Republicans. Nevertheless, Grafton's deep-blue tint helped tilt the district. Toss-up

EC-2: (D+7) The "crescent moon district", which has become NH's symbol, is safe. However, there's a clown car primary with six candidates. I've talked about Surdukowski, Plunkett, Warmington, and Soldati, but I haven't talked about the other two. The old guard seems to be coalescing around Warmington, with scattered support among the rest.

John Shea (D-Nelson) is an interesting story. After signing up to run as a sacrificial lamb against a 12-year-incumbent, he wound up winning. After losing in 2010, he's run every time the seat's been open and lost in the primary.

The next candidate is state representative and farmer Craig Thompson (D-Harrisville). He may very well have the endorsement of Volinsky, and seems like he has a lot of progressive support. One major downside is that he supports updating our election registration to match the Motor Voter law, which is generally seen as the thing holding Republicans back from repealing election-day registration.

I would probably be leaning towards Warmington or Plunkett if I lived in the district. I'm not sure who Plunkett endorsed (whether it be Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Warren), but as I've described I'm not a fan of Mayor Pete, especially considering recent events. While Thompson is closer to my beliefs, I'm troubled that he would remove the one thing stopping Republicans from enacting their ideal voter suppression agenda. I would probably vote third-party over Surdukowski.

Republicans are running former NH-2 candidate Stewart Levenson (R-Concord). Either way, it's Safe D. In a wave, this might be attainable, but not now.

NH-3 (R+4): This inelastic district is vacant, due to a retirement. Former NH-1 candidate/state representative Mindi Messmer (D-Rye) has a challenger in 5-term state rep Patty Lovejoy (D-Exeter), who's running a campaign stressing her experience. It just seems like too little too late - as someone in the area, I didn't even know she was running. The party's united around Messmer.

The Republican primary is crowded. Former state rep Tim Comerford (R-Fremont) is facing off against former candidate/businessman Bruce Crochetiere (R-Hampton) and businesswoman Janet Stevens (R-Rye). Crochetiere seems like the overwhelming favorite, being endorsed by Innis along with the conservative grassroots. As much of a Mindi hack I am, I'm still a bit skeptical that we can flip this. Toss-up/Tilt R

NH-4: (R+3) Former mayor/state senator Ted Gatsas (R-Manchester) had a successful comeback bid against Gray Chynoweth, flipping this seat back. Although it's trended towards Clinton slightly. Democrats are running former AFL/CIO head and NH-1 candidate Mark MacKenzie (D-Manchester). While he had a very disappointing finish, a lot of it was out of his control (namely due to the presence of Chris Pappas cutting into his base). The general trend of the district makes me put this as a Toss-up.

NH-5: Councilor Deborah Pignatelli (D-Nashua) is going up against former state senate Majority Leader Bob Clegg (R-Hudson). While the district is trending away, Pignatelli is a strong candidate with a lot of ties to the Nashua area. Lean D

Dave Wheeler, the former Executive Councilor, is also running in the GOP primary for District 5. How do think that primary will pan out? I could see Clegg being favored, but I think Wheeler may win simply because he so recently represented the district, so he has strong ties to the entire district.

[Morning in Atlas]

I'm not entirely sure. Clegg has kept his niche in the NHGOP.

[Brother Jonathan]

That's certainly true. Being from Hudson also probably helps him in the Nashua area, which will probably prove to be pretty important in the primary.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/DarrylWPerry/status/1269321084375044101

DARRYL W. PERRY IS RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/DarrylWPerry/status/1269321084375044101

DARRYL W. PERRY IS RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR

STATESMAN
AND
POET

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/DarrylWPerry/status/1269321084375044101

DARRYL W. PERRY IS RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR

STATESMAN
AND
POET

Ah the legendary Atlas user

[S019]

https://twitter.com/DarrylWPerry/status/1269321084375044101
DARRYL W. PERRY IS RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR

I guess he can get the votes of the 6 libertarians who will vote for him. Still hoping Volinsky or Feltes win the GE.

[MT Treasurer]

Is Ayotte really considering a run for Senate in 2022? Might be hot air, but either way, it would make much more sense for her to run for governor IMO.

Ayotte will be attending at least her second fundraiser for Republican candidates in three days. New Hampshire Primary Source reported Thursday that she will be the featured guest at an event for Republican Hillsborough County Sheriff candidate Chris Connelly on Aug. 3.

The joint appearance by the governor and the former senator comes amid quiet speculation that both may be eyeing a run for the U.S. Senate in 2022, when Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan will presumably seek a second term.

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-sununu-ayotte-to-be-featured-speakers-at-republican-nh-house-fundraiser/33373312

Ayotte for GOV + Sununu for SEN might be the best Republicans could hope for, but even the best isn’t necessarily a lot in a state like this. At least it would force more Democratic spending here.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is Ayotte really considering a run for Senate in 2022? Might be hot air, but either way, it would make much more sense for her to run for governor IMO.

Ayotte will be attending at least her second fundraiser for Republican candidates in three days. New Hampshire Primary Source reported Thursday that she will be the featured guest at an event for Republican Hillsborough County Sheriff candidate Chris Connelly on Aug. 3.

The joint appearance by the governor and the former senator comes amid quiet speculation that both may be eyeing a run for the U.S. Senate in 2022, when Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan will presumably seek a second term.

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-sununu-ayotte-to-be-featured-speakers-at-republican-nh-house-fundraiser/33373312

Ayotte for GOV + Sununu for SEN might be the best Republicans could hope for, but even the best isn’t necessarily a lot in a state like this. At least it would force more Democratic spending here.

Rematches almost never go well for the challenger. Ayotte for Gov and Sununu for Senate seems like the ideal strategy for the NHGOP.

[Morning in Atlas]

I was planning on keeping it short, but then I got wrapped up in primary races and it turned into my usual spergalerg. I also need a distraction from doomerposting about the party's future, so I figured I'd drop it here.

NH-1 (D+1): David Starr (R-Franconia) was a retired engineer who only ran because nobody else was running. Between the wave and Woodburn's local connections, everyone thought this was Safe D. Then, Woodburn was investigated for domestic violence. While Starr won 55-45, a lot of it has to do with Woodburn's misconduct rather than the district's hard trend to the right.

Starr is running again, but he'll have to get past three-term State Representative Erin Hennessey (R-Littleton) in the primary. She seems to be running as a bog-standard Republican, tying herself heavily to Sununu. She's actually earned his endorsement, despite Starr being the incumbent. I do think she's a stronger candidate for the seat – she has much more readily accessible information. Starr was also embroiled in a controversy over a racist Black Panther review that he published, where he lamented the movie's “camera work” and how you “couldn't see anybody in the dark scenes.”

Democrats are running 5-term state rep Susan Ford (D-Easton). She's done well for herself in her career, holding her district in 2014, keeping it close in 2016, and winning dominantly in 2018. SD-1 itself is elastic and there's room for a Democrat to win here, but considering Kenney won it in his EC loss and Hennessey's likely win, I'm a lot more bearish. Toss-up

NH-2 (R+3): Bob Giuda (R-Warren) is facing a primary challenge from Belknap County Commissioner/businessman Dave DeVoy (R-Sanbornton). While DeVoy is running explicitly on reopening NH and easing COVID restrictions, he clashed with the state reps in his district, especially on opioid treatment funding. Some people called him a RINO and arguably only won because his opposition split the vote. Giuda had a reputation as a nut, but he's moderated on a few issues and has re-invented himself. Nevertheless, the primary should batter Giuda down.

Whoever wins up against Plymouth school board member Bill Bolton (D-Plymouth) again. Not really much to say here that hasn't been said before. The district has trended strongly towards Trump, and hasn't really been affected by COVID. Nevertheless, Bolton kept it close last time, and the national mood and primary challenge may be enough to push him over. Toss-up

NH-3 (R+4): Effingham selectwoman Theresa Swanick is the candidate to go up against former Congressman Jeb Bradley. This seat isn't flipping any time soon. Bradley is entrenched. Safe R

NH-4 (D+7)[/color]: David Watters (D-Dover) might be running against Frank Bertone, I guess? He deactivated his campaign site, but this isn't flipping, especially in this environment. Safe D

NH-5 (D+16): State Senator Martha Hennessey (D-Hanover) is retiring in this gerrymandered seat. Her successors are either former Lebanon mayor Suzanne Prentiss (#NeverTrumper/Randroid turned Buttigieg fan, generally seems trash) or professor/former state rep Beatriz Pastor (overall, fine, from Hanover). Most of Lebanon's establishment backed Prentiss, but Hennessey herself is with Pastor. Whoever wins will beat Some Dude Tim O'Hearne (R-Charlestown), a Trump supporter in a Democratic vote-sink. Safe D

NH-6 (R+6): Rochester City Councilor Christopher Rice (D) is likely to go up against Jim Gray (R-Rochester). Rice does seem like a strong candidate with a compelling story and proven electoral results. The district's pull and trend is still very strong, but with things going poorly for Trump in 2020, anything can happen. Likely R

NH-7 (R+3): Former state rep. Phil Spagnuolo (D-Laconia) is going up against incumbent Harold French (R-Franklin). Spagnuolo is a much better get for Democrats here with a proven winning electoral pedigree, but French performed much better than Giuda and Ward did last cycle. Going off of election results, he's in a better position. Leans R

NH-8 (R+3): Scientist Jenn Alford-Teaster (D-Bradford) is going for a rematch against Ruth Ward (R-Stoddard). Ward tacks toward the moderate wing, which has helped her win. However, anything could happen with the current wave, especially with her performance. Toss-up

NH-9 (R+1): This district, drawn to dilute the Democratic-leaning suburbs in Manchester, has now turned into a Democratic district itself. Scientist Jeanne Dietsch won a sizable victory against DUI lawyer Dan Hynes, who upset moderate Terry Wolf in the primary. Hynes wasn't considered a great candidate.

The candidate is Bedford Town Council Vice President Denise Ricciardi. While she leans more towards Trump, she's well-known in the community for creating a volunteer program to help out people affected by COVID. She's also unapologetically pro-environment and moderate on gun rights, liking Moms Demand on her personal Facebook. Surprisingly, nobody has picked up on this besides me, and it hasn't stopped the party from uniting behind her. Normally I'd rate this Likely D, but Ricciardi is a very strong candidate and has enough roots to keep the margins close. Leans D

NH-10 (D+11): Incumbent Jay Kahn (D-Keene) is running against cop Dan LeClair (R-Swanzey) again. Not much to see. Safe D

NH-11 (R+3): I guess former senator Gary Daniels (R-Milford) is going for a rematch against Shannon Chandley (D-Milford). It's interesting, because I always thought Democrats could compete here, but never were able to find anyone to run until 2018. I really don't foresee this being much of a problem for her, considering her dominant performance when Daniels was the incumbent. Leans D

NH-12 (R+2): Melanie Levesque (D-Brookline) is going up for a rematch with Kevin Avard (R-Nashua), who she knocked off. As I've said, Avard is an absolute nutjob, but he managed to only lose by a percentage point. Levesque has carved out a name for herself, but again - anything can happen. Toss-up

NH-13 (D+6): Cindy Rosenwald (D-Nashua) is the incumbent, providing stronger progressive representation than Lasky. She's going up against former state representative Mariellen MacKay (R-Nashua), who switched parties in 2017 over concerns of "bipartisanship" over a budget dispute. She's become a loyal footsoldier since, burning her bridges with the actual party. Safe D

NH-14 (R+8): Not much to see here, really. Democrats only got within 13 points of Sharon Carson with a Libertarian candidate in 2012. They failed to narrow the gap in 2016, let alone 2018. I don't foresee this changing, even with a better candidate in former Londonderry school board chair Nancy Hendricks (D). Even with a strong libertarian candidate, you'd need a 9-point improvement. That's not happening. Safe R

NH-15: (D+11) The presumptuous favorite is former Congressman Paul Hodes (D-Concord). He's kept up his appearances in the Democratic community, and has strong name recognition. However, Concord City Councilor Candace Bouchard and lawyer Becky Whitley (D-Hopkinton) have proven themselves to be competitive too, with Whitley raising a good chunk money. While Hodes has a lot of name recog Kuster has “anti-endorsed” Hodes in favor of electing a woman to the seat. Whoever wins will have a cakewalk against Some Dudette Linda Rae Banfill. Safe D

NH-16 (R+2): Kevin Cavanaugh has proven to be a strong incumbent, upsetting the seat's previous Republican representative in a special election by 11 points. Republicans are running Jason Syversen, who mainly seems to be focusing on privacy issues. I don't see him winning, especially considering their best candidate in Boutin lost by 5. Likely D

NH-17 (R+6): John Reagan has a primary challenge from “community witch” Janet Delfuoco. Other than that, he seems to be a rematch against perennial Democratic candidate Nancy Fraher (D-Chichester), who lost to him in 2016 by over 20%. While she had a strong performance in 2012, the district has since shifted firmly towards Trump. Unlike Rice, I don't think Fraher could make it competitive. Safe R

NH-18 (R+2): State Senate Presient Donna Soucy is going up against former Manchester school board member Ross Terrio (R) or former state representative George Lambert (R-Hudson). Both are rematch candidates, with Terrio losing by 11 points in 2016 and Lambert losing by 12 in 2018. While the seat has enough of a trend where it could flip in an R wave, this is not the environment and certainly not the candidates to break Soucy's strangehold on the seat. Safe D

NH-19 (R+9): Incumbent Regina Birdsell (R-Hampstead) looks to be fairly safe. She won by 13 against a Some Dudette in Kristina Durocher. Democrats have a better candidate in Derry Town Councilman Josh Bourdon (D), who could keep things close, but the seat's just too red to flip. Safe R

NH-20 (D+2): I thought Lou D'Allessandro (D-Manchester) could face a primary challenge due to his support of Bill Gardner and his generally socially moderate stances, but he avoided one. There really isn't a huge JD contingent in NH – most of the Netroots generation here became Obama hacks, and the establishment has done a great job with Berniecrat outreach. Most Berniecrats are closer to John Fetterman or Mindi Messmer than Cenk Uygur or Levi Sanders.

Lou will likely face libertarian activist Carla Gericke (R-Manchester) for the third time. With the primary wrapped up, everything looks Safe D from here.

NH-21 (D+16): There's a primary between City Councilor Rebecca Perkins Kwoka and former Congressional candidate Deaglan MacEachern (both D-Portsmouth). MacEachern was a prolific fundraiser with a great backstory, but had trouble translating that fundraising into votes. He failed to beat Mindi Messmer, another prolific Berniecrat, in his own city.

The only real controversy RPK has was voting in GOP primaries to stop Trump. Most have looked past this. She has the support of EMILY's List and a lot of the current Portsmouth political establishment. The biggest name so far is Maura Sullivan, along with a lot of the new guard.

While McEachern has some of the old guard, the state establishment is backing him. Former speaker Terie Norelli endorsed, as did Stefany Shaheen and Messmer. I think MacEachern is slightly favored due to his higher name recognition, especially outside of Portsmouth. Either way, the winner faces historian/activist Sue Polidura, who will lose. Safe D

NH-22 (R+12): Senate Minority Leader Chuck Morse (R-Salem) is facing Some Dude Tom Haynes (D-Salem). The district is a smattering of exurban border towns - packed to the gills with Massachusetts tax refugees. Nothing to see here, move on. Safe R.

NH-23 (R+4): There's a competitive primary, with former senator Bill Gannon (R-Sandown) going up against pastor Allen Cook (R-Brentwood) to face the incumbent, Jon Morgan (D-Brentwood). Morgan is a uniquely strong candidate and great fundraiser, but the district is still slightly red. I'll still give this a Toss-up – it will be tough for Morgan to ingrain himself into the community to lock it down like Pappas did.

NH-24 (R+2): There's a competitive primary between former state representative Lou Gargiulo (R-Hampton Falls) and Hampton selectwoman Regina Barnes (R). The incumbent, Tom Sherman (D-Hampton), is a strong fit for the district and won by a dominant 6 points against rising star Dan Innis. Bar a massive wave, the seat will likely hold. Likely D

FORECAST: Control of the Senate is Likely D. As I've said, the gerrymander has turned into a dummymander. A lot of suburban “anchor towns” meant to keep the rest of the Democratic parts have shifted. Republicans need to flip 3 seats to gain a majority, and there really isn't a lot there to gain back. Aside from the 2 toss-up seats, they need to win back one of SD-9 and SD-11. It would take an implosion to do so.

Supermajority talks are a Toss-up. Democrats need 2 of SD-1, SD-2, and SD-8. There are way too many variables to predict right now, and I'll have a greater idea when everything comes together.

[Morning in Atlas]

Executive Council candidate Jay Surdukowski has landed in hot water recently for making sexist comments at a candidate forum.

Surdukowski got some heat for his defense of Gordon MacDonald, Sununu's Chief Justice nominee. As I've said, there is an impasse with the Chief Justice vacancy. Sununu insists on appointing MacDonald, one of his political associates and our state's leading AG. The Executive Council, which is 3-2 Democratic, has rejected this bid because of concerns over MacDonald's partisanship.

He was asked about this in a forum. He then dismissed the only anti-MacDonald voice as a "woman" who was a "failed associate" at her law firm and "not a real lawyer". In reality, she's an accomplished member of the NH Bar who testified in representation of Planned Parenthood of Northern New England.

Emmett Soldati and Craig Thompson immediately condemned him - if you look at the footage, he pretty clearly turns off the camera because he's laughing at being called out. His comments received strong condemnation from women in the Bar Association. The women running against him, some state representatives, state senate candidates in SD-15 and SD-21, and even our national commiteewoman Kathy Sullivan condemned them.

As I said, if I lived in EC-2, I would not vote for Surdukowski - even if he won the nomination. If you do, you shouldn't either.

[Morning in Atlas]

We have some SD-21 news:

https://twitter.com/FostersDailyDem/status/1298698518861930497

Republicans are planning to challenge Deaglan McEachern's campaign and are trying to say that he doesn't meet the residency requirement. The State Constitution requires 7-year residency (which is why Maura Sullivan couldn't run here). Most of this comes from his story, where he said he first moved to NH in 2014. That would put him a few months short of the threshold.

Legally, McEachern seems to be in the clear. Ostensibly, he had declared his father's address as his residency the entire time. Although he lived in New York in 2012-2014, he registered his car in NH, got a NH license, and voted absentee in NH elections. That's enough to definitively establish residence.

I don't expect this challenge to come from Rebecca Perkins Kwoka. She already said she doesn't care.