ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

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Collins is moderate enough, as well as Ernst to withstand a Dem wave.

I doubt she would be able to survive if she votes to acquit Trump of bribery.

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Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

I think people keep overestimating her chances. Her approval is now in-line with Trump’s in the state.

She’s -10 with indys, -48 with Democrats, and only +23 with republicans. Her winning coalition is vanishing.

I can understand the logic behind this. Polarization, as we saw in the 2018 midterms, has only grown more intense, and Collins is now viewed as no different from the national Republican Party, due to her support for first the tax cuts, then Kavanaugh, and currently, her response to impeachment. How she conducts herself during this trial could very well have implications for her electoral prospects. But Collins does have that history of electoral overperformance, and she is a known quantity in the state, so Democrats can't take this race for granted. They must be willing to allocate the resources necessary here to defeat her.

She should have voted against Kavanaugh, then when someone else comes along with literally the same ideology, she can vote for him/her and say "see! I am a moderate!"

[pppolitics]

Impeachment Trial Puts Susan Collins, Stung by Kavanaugh Backlash, Under Scrutiny

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/18/us/politics/impeachment-susan-collins.html

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IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

[pppolitics]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

Please answer the second question:

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

[pppolitics]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

Please answer the second question:

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

That is a good question, and I'll be honest and say that I don't have an answer for it. But it would be a miscalculation for Democrats to assume that they will be handed Collins' seat on a silver platter. Impeachment alone isn't going to do it. They must also highlight Kavanaugh and the tax cuts, and construct a narrative of how Collins has consistently aided and abetted Trump since he took office.

I am not saying that it's going to be a slam-dunk, but I disagree with the general narrative that Collins is still favored.

[pppolitics]

The ads are practically writing themselves.

https://youtu.be/ARP9m7-PzJU?t=440

Susan Collins Admits Trump May Not Have Learned His ‘Lesson’

One day after Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) announced her decision to vote against removing President Trump from office by saying that she believes he has learned his “lesson” and will be “much more cautious in the future,” she admitted on Fox News that her assumption was based on nothing. Asked by Fox anchor Martha MacCallum if Trump gave her any “assurance” that he would not accept (or solicit) foreign help in his next election, Collins said she has not spoken to him once throughout the Senate trial, which ended in the president’s acquittal Wednesday afternoon.

“So why do you have that feeling that he has changed, that he learned a lesson?” MacCallum asked. Collins smiled broadly as she replied, “Well, I may not be correct on that. It’s more aspirational on my part, it’s more that I hope that he’s listened to the many voices in the Senate who have pointed out that the call was very problematic.” President Trump has never admitted that his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was anything less than “perfect.”

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Reporter presses Collins: Did Trump learn any lessons?

CNN's Manu Raju asked Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) three times whether President Donald Trump learned any lessons following his impeachment trial.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/02/12/senator-susan-collins-trump-lesson-raju-nr-vpx.cnn

Susan Collins' defense of her Trump vote just keeps looking worse and worse

(CNN) -- Eight days removed from Donald Trump's acquittal on both articles of impeachment, the President is leaning heavily into a revenge tour against his political enemies -- an effort that makes Maine Sen. Susan Collins' claim that Trump had learned his lesson from the impeachment proceedings all the more outlandish.

Asked Wednesday morning by CNN's Manu Raju about those comments -- made to CBS' Norah O'Donnell following Collins' vote to acquit Trump -- the Maine senator said this:

"I don't know what actions you're referring to. I've made very clear that I don't think anyone should be retaliated against. That has nothing to do with the basis by which I voted to acquit the President. I voted to acquit the President, as I made very clear to you, Manu, on numerous occasions, because his conduct, while wrong, did not meet the high bar established in the Constitution for the immediate ouster of a duly elected president."

OK.

Well, the "actions" Manu is referring to are, among other things, these:

* Trump's targeting of senators -- including Utah Republican Sen. Mitt Romney -- who didn't vote with him on impeachment.

* His "celebration" ceremony at the White House last week in which he used his presidential platform to punish his enemies, praise his friends and generally declare victory.

* The Friday firing of Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman (and his twin brother) as well as Gordon Sondland, the former ambassador to the European Union, after Vindman and Sondland testified in the House impeachment investigation.

* The establishment of an official channel at the Department of Justice to deal with information about Ukraine, as well as Joe and Hunter Biden, being collected by Trump personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

* The announcement of congressional investigations into the Bidens.

* Trump's Monday night tweet protesting the allegedly harsh sentencing guidelines for convicted felon Roger Stone, followed by the Department of Justice's reconsideration of those guidelines and the resignation of the four federal prosecutors involved in the case.
So, yeah, that. And if you are asking, no, it is not possible that Collins, a United States senator, is somehow unaware of Trump's actions over the past eight days.

What Collins is trying to get out from under -- and not succeeding -- is the massive political mistake she made when she told O'Donnell that "I believe that the President has learned from this case" and that Trump "will be much more cautious in the future."

[...]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/12/politics/susan-collins-donald-trump-lesson/index.html

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https://twitter.com/laurenvpass/status/1227623038562246658
https://twitter.com/pdmcleod/status/1227640750227283971

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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1227595813850886144
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1227598320362717184
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1227640810814025731
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1227655817274544128

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/BresPolitico/status/1227640875192209409

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If we apply that rationale then all criminals would be free

If Gideon is smart, she should pound Collins for the ("I believe that the president has learned from this case") comment every chance she gets.

Every Maine voter should have those words stuck in his/her head by election day.

[pppolitics]

Gideon's favorite line should be, "Hi, I am Sara Gideon, and I will vote to hold the president accountable no matter which party he or she is from".

[pppolitics]

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

[pppolitics]

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Really? What did she said?

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Or, you know, he just wants to hold her accountable.

[pppolitics]

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Really? What did she said?

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Or, you know, he just wants to hold her accountable.

Well it’s a sad thing that journalists never try to hold accountable democratic politicians.
Anyway don’t really see how asking every week the same question to Collins is ’’holding her accountable’’ , by the the way Collins should be only accountable to Maine voters, not liberal far left partisan journalists

You just said that Collins "responded to" the question last week.

What did she said?