What does your gut say about this election today?

[Person Man]

Florida will be the difference between a 2004-like margin and a 2012-like margin. 

[SPQR]

If the elections were held tomorrow: Clinton victory, even though not as large as I'd like (a landslide, that is).

But I believe that good old Donald will make some other major gaffe between today and November 8th.

[SPQR]

If the elections were held tomorrow: Clinton victory, even though not as large as I'd like (a landslide, that is).

But I believe that good old Donald will make the headlines again for all the wrong reasons between today and November 8th, leading to a larger HRC victory.

[Sbane]

This is my gut feeling right now. The west remains as current polling indicates while the east shifts a few points towards Trump. This means NC becomes a pure tossup and VA isn't a blowout. PA, MI and WI are all close but stay with Clinton by at least a couple points. Ohio and Iowa are Trump wins by a few points. Florida by a couple points for Clinton.

I don't see a reason for such pessimism

I don't think I am being pessimistic. Sure that map is about a 4-5 point win, but it's only about 1-2 points away from the current average. I have AZ as a pure tossup in that map and Texas around 5-6 point win for Trump. Black turnout is not looking good as of right now.