OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Brittain33]

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/j-d-vance-on-abortion-states-need-to-figure-this-stuff-out-143672389727

That's the correct answer for him to give but I'm curious how much of the pro-life base is as pragmatic as he is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Vance, Oz and Budd are having so much trouble Val Demings, Ryan and Fried are running as incumbents and the Rs are running as challengers eventhough they are incumbent R seats in a normal change election the challenger wins out over incumbent but Trump has endorsed all of them Rs and Palin is losing to Nick Begich and Mary Peltola in AK AL

[Rjjr77]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

[NewYorkExpress]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

[Schiff for Senate]

Oh perfect. Democratic donors are once again going to blow millions on a state that they aren’t winning, huh? You want your donation to be worthwhile, donate to Democrats with a solid chance of victory, like John Fetterman.

[Rjjr77]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

[NewYorkExpress]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

Didn't Obama win Ohio twice, or are we no longer counting him as a Democrat?

[S019]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

So Ryan will lose by 12 instead of 20

[Politician]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

Didn't Obama win Ohio twice, or are we no longer counting him as a Democrat?

So Elliott County is a tossup in 2024?

[Brittain33]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

Didn't Obama win Ohio twice, or are we no longer counting him as a Democrat?

So Elliott County is a tossup in 2024?

When was the last time Kentucky went Democratic in a statewide federal election? 1996 for President and 1992 for Senate, vs.  2012 and 2018 for Ohio.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

Didn't Obama win Ohio twice, or are we no longer counting him as a Democrat?

Firstly both wins were narrow, and at this point 2008 and 2012 were completely different political eras. Mind you Romney won the new GA-07 even though it's absolutely uber safe D for 2022.

The only real statewide success on any sort of nationalized race Dems have had in Ohio since 2012 was Brown in 2018, a blue wave where Republicans didn't take his race seriously at all.

Also, a statewide Dem win in Ohio would prolly be pretty different from Obama's Ohio win in 2012, which heavily relied on Northeastern Ohio. A 30 point win in Mahong isn't happenning and frankly that's not what Dems need to win Ohio at this point.

[Yoda]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

Didn't Obama win Ohio twice, or are we no longer counting him as a Democrat?

Also democrats have won statewide in multiple Supreme Court races in recent years, albeit in races that were nonpartisan until this upcoming election.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The other day I looked on here thinking that we thought Ryan had a good chance. I was very disappointed to see how wrong I was. I hope he can at least keep it closer than usual for Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The other day I looked on here thinking that we thought Ryan had a good chance. I was very disappointed to see how wrong I was. I hope he can at least keep it closer than usual for Ohio.

Lol stop Dooming

[Zenobiyl]

https://youtu.be/5vxz2R_VTjA

Very smart ad. It won’t be enough for him to win this race, but he is running a very strong campaign for a red state democrat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have a 1/3 chance of winning this race just like Rs have a 1/3 chance in blue states and WI, PA are likely pickups and OH, IA, LA,  NC and FL are our 53rd and wave insurance in case WARNOCK loses to get to 52/48 Rs arent monopoly over red states

That's why we make user prediction they're not rankings we have to see the Final Rankins after Labor Day

[Nyvin]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

In some ways yes, in some ways no.

Ohio hasn't elected a democrat not named sherrod brown in this state since 2006. Kentucky has had a slew of statewide elected officials elected as democrat. Presidential Totals arent the be all end all

The Democrats actually did win 3 State Supreme Court races since 2006.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is a weak candidate Barnes, Fetterman and Ryan has lead in every poll the only state that Rs are doing welll in is GA and it's a Jan Runoff anyway

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The other day I looked on here thinking that we thought Ryan had a good chance. I was very disappointed to see how wrong I was. I hope he can at least keep it closer than usual for Ohio.

Lol stop Dooming

All I know about this race comes from this thread. Everybody here is making it seem like it's a safe R race, so I assumed they were right when I was looking here the other day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The other day I looked on here thinking that we thought Ryan had a good chance. I was very disappointed to see how wrong I was. I hope he can at least keep it closer than usual for Ohio.

Lol stop Dooming

All I know about this race comes from this thread. Everybody here is making it seem like it's a safe R race, so I assumed they were right when I was looking here the other day.

Vance is gonna get 1/3% of Afro Americans vote and DeWine got 6% out of 12% Renacci got 1/3% and DeWine got 6%  in 2018 and Brown and DeWine won and Trump won OH in 2020 there wasn't a Senate race in 2020

The polls are lying about black and Brown vote going to Rs because Newsom won the recall with overwhelming support of minority, I voted in that Recall

[Sir Mohamed]

The other day I looked on here thinking that we thought Ryan had a good chance. I was very disappointed to see how wrong I was. I hope he can at least keep it closer than usual for Ohio.

Lol stop Dooming

All I know about this race comes from this thread. Everybody here is making it seem like it's a safe R race, so I assumed they were right when I was looking here the other day.

It's basically just common sense, imho. OH voted for Trump by 8 pts. and has barely elected any Dem candidate in a statewide race over the last decade. 2022 is not shaping up to be a blue wave year, so any "Generic R" candidate shouldn't have much trouble winning this seat. Partisan gravity and the national environment easily outmatch Ryan's strength as a candidate. Races for national office have become very rare in which the personal brand of a candidate than overcome a state's lean.

The few polls we have are pretty much meaningless because either too many undecided or, more importantly, always underestimated GOP support. Especially with months to go before the election. In a best case scenario, Ryan gets around 44-45% and loses by a Likely margin such as 53-45%. That's the absolute best we can hope for.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The other day I looked on here thinking that we thought Ryan had a good chance. I was very disappointed to see how wrong I was. I hope he can at least keep it closer than usual for Ohio.

Lol stop Dooming

All I know about this race comes from this thread. Everybody here is making it seem like it's a safe R race, so I assumed they were right when I was looking here the other day.

It's basically just common sense, imho. OH voted for Trump by 8 pts. and has barely elected any Dem candidate in a statewide race over the last decade. 2022 is not shaping up to be a blue wave year, so any "Generic R" candidate should have much trouble winning this seat. Partisan gravity and the national environment easily outmatch Ryan's strength as a candidate. Races for national office have become very rare in which the personal brand of a candidate than overcome a state's lean.

The few polls we have are pretty much meaningless because either too many undecided or, more importantly, always underestimated GOP support. Especially with months to go before the election. In a best case scenario, Ryan gets around 44-45% and loses by a Likely margin such as 53-45%. That's the absolute best we can hope for.

Vance is polling at 34% we will see on Eday, the last poll have Ryan up 43/34 plus Ryan 9 how embarrassing Vance getting 34%

[Pollster]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know have you seen the users reaction to the OH poll, it's unbelievable they think they are supposed to win OH and Obama won OH, FL and NC and part of the reason why OH and FL went R I'm 2020 again there wasn't a high profile statewide race like a Sen or Gov in 22 OH was win by Obama by 3pts

WI too eventhough Tammy Baldwin a socialist beat Tommy Thompson, and Russ Feingold won multiple election, it's not unusual for Barnes a lefty to beat JOHNSON

We still have IA, AK, MO, NC and FL and they are all within 5/6 pts like TX Gov, except for AK but it's a 3 person race

OH started trending R just because Strickland made that silly comment that Scalias death was good for America and Rs ran against Hillary on Guj CONTROL, Strickland had string fundraising numbers before that comment was made and was leading in all the polls


Rs said it had to do with Strickland record as Gov if that's the case why did Brown whom is more liberal than Ryan and Strickland won 3 landslide Elections

[GeorgiaModerate]

Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

I was really enjoying this post until the last sentence.