Yahoo News/YouGov: Biden +6

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yes, Biden will win, but +6 or +10 makes a big difference in the Senate.

Based on the static approval rating, Biden will probably still win by 10 points once the undecideds are allocated.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yes, Biden will win, but +6 or +10 makes a big difference in the Senate.

Based on the static approval rating, Biden will probably still win by 10 points once the undecideds are allocated.

Oh sure, I’m not saying that he’ll actually win by 6 (I’m expecting a +8 margin, personally).

I kind of feel bad for the people celebrating this (especially the people reccing Woodbury's posts (lol)) while it's clear this isn't sustainable with an unimproved approval rating. Of course 538's model won't reflect this either since the losers left out approval rating, the arguably single most important metric in any President's re-election campaign.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Red avatars pretending it's not happening. Again.

So, if we don't buy some big Trump bump when his approval rating is stable or actually falling (according to this very poll), then we are in ignorance of reality?

Approval rating has been the single most important factor in determining a President's re-election chances for the past few decades at least.