French presidential election, 2022

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

LR and PS are in meltdown, which may leave dozens of seats on the table for LREM, and no one has ever managed to make the losers' revenge thing work in the legislatives on the scale needed to deprive Macron of a majority under these conditions. Le Pen's core demographic is also not famous for flocking to the polls at low-turnout elections. Can we at least try not to get distracted by fantasies and shiny one-off poll results? The odds are on LREM's side here.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Now on to winning the legislative elections. La Repulique en marche!

And on to a Biden win in 2024!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Zemmour speaking now. Absolutely pummeled Le Pen then immediately called on a union of the "national camp". Good luck with that, bucko.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

Does RN really have anyone else though? Although maybe they'll be eclipsed by Zemmour's party or something for 2027.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

Does RN really have anyone else though? Although maybe they'll be eclipsed by Zemmour's party or something for 2027.

Maréchal I guess. IDK perhaps a more mainstream right wing candidate contests the second round in 2027.

[Mike88]

Macron's motorcade is en route to the Eiffel Tower right now.

[MT Treasurer]

Excuse the late question, but where is the best interactive map to track returns (I only have The Guardian)? Anyone have a link?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

He is right that people need to turn out and vote in the legislatives, though. For 20 years French people have been idiots to skip the vote that actually matters because the presidential election looks flashier. Now there's fatalism around Macron being reelected and there not being a left option on the ballot, but there WILL be a left option on the ballot in June, and if history is any guide, a lot of left-wing voters will ignore it. We have to hope that Mélenchon can convince them not to.

Les Françaises should do it like les Américains: The presidential and the congressional elections ought to held on the same day. Since runoffs are provided for either election anyway, it would be of advantage to merge both election dates.

[Mike88]

Excuse the late question, but where is the best interactive map to track returns (I only have The Guardian)? Anyone have a link?

Some links:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-2022-french-presidential-election-%E2%80%93-first-round-results

https://resultats-elections.lavoixdunord.fr/presidentielle/2022/

[MT Treasurer]

Excuse the late question, but where is the best interactive map to track returns (I only have The Guardian)? Anyone have a link?

Some links:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-2022-french-presidential-election-%E2%80%93-first-round-results

https://resultats-elections.lavoixdunord.fr/presidentielle/2022/

Thank you!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LR and PS are in meltdown, which may leave dozens of seats on the table for LREM, and no one has ever managed to make the losers' revenge thing work in the legislatives on the scale needed to deprive Macron of a majority under these conditions. Le Pen's core demographic is also not famous for flocking to the polls at low-turnout elections. Can we at least try not to get distracted by fantasies and shiny one-off poll results? The odds are on LREM's side here.

Crucial thing to remember here is that LR-UDI still won 130 seats last time and they're in absolute pieces now, as broken as the PS. That alone opens up a lot of room for EN MARCHE to carry on marching forwards, even if they lose ground elsewhere.

[DavidB.]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

Does RN really have anyone else though? Although maybe they'll be eclipsed by Zemmour's party or something for 2027.

Maréchal I guess. IDK perhaps a more mainstream right wing candidate contests the second round in 2027.

She's now with Zemmour and his party, and she would without a doubt do worse than Marine.

[Mike88]

Macron's election party music reminds me of my college years... xD

[Oryxslayer]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

Does RN really have anyone else though? Although maybe they'll be eclipsed by Zemmour's party or something for 2027.

Maréchal I guess. IDK perhaps a more mainstream right wing candidate contests the second round in 2027.

She's now with Zemmour and his party, and she would without a doubt do worse than Marine.

I mean it would be hard to see FN not win at least 30 legislative seats, so maybe someone will emerge from the background. But they would have to overthrow what is in effect a family dynasty, and I can't see anyone else running under FN without the blessing of Marine.

[Cassius]

Embarrassing for Le Pen given she ran literally the most Shorpilled campaign possible. Moderated a ton and still got blown out. Have to think her career is over.

Peter Shore?

Anyway, I expect Le Pen will attempt “one more heave” in 2027 (but still fall short, barring unforeseen circumstances).

[Oryxslayer]

More Zemmour abstentions and slightly more Melenchon -> Macron voters than polls expected.

[Mike88]

44% counted:

51.4% Macron
48.6% Le Pen

[Oryxslayer]

Lozère is the first mainland department to finish. 54.2 to 45.8 Macron.

[LAB-LIB]

Is the expectation that Macron's coalition wins the most seats in the National Assembly but loses its majority?

To who lol

To no one, I was thinking hung parliament.

44% counted:

51.4% Macron
48.6% Le Pen

Where?!?!?!

[Oryxslayer]

Is the expectation that Macron's coalition wins the most seats in the National Assembly but loses its majority?

To who lol

To no one, I was thinking hung parliament.

44% counted:

51.4% Macron
48.6% Le Pen

Where?!?!?!

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html

You'll also find department intermediate counts here as well by clicking on them.

[Mike88]

Macron's motorcade is en route to the Eiffel Tower right now.

It seems that the motorcade from half an hour ago was from the Prime Minister. xD Right now, TV channels are following the real Macron's motorcade en route to the Champ-de-Mars.

[Oryxslayer]

Ipsos updated national estimates: 58.8% to 41.2%

[LAB-LIB]

So is this mostly the north of France outside of Paris where the votes have been counted?

[kireev]

Can I see a link to their updates please?

Ipsos updated national estimates: 58.8% to 41.2%