Polish Politics and Elections

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Final late poll (combination of exit polling and actual results)
AD - 51%
RT - 49%

MOE 1%
Foreign votes aren't included for the late poll.
Trzaskowski can still win, but his chances are getting slimmer.

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From a quick look at the results at county level, it seems that Poland's political divide is shifting from East-West to Rural-Urban. Duda is performing far better in the villages in the west even winning a few he did not in 2015 while performing worse in the medium to larger cities, narrowly losing Lublin where he won in 2015.

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Looks like Trzaskowski did not actually win Mazovia proper after all. The results for Mazovia on the official election page are combined with the expatriate and ships vote. If you take them out it becomes

Duda - 1,523,039 (50.78%)
Trzaskowski - 1,476,393 (49.22%)

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Apparently the final straw was using military Hercules transporters to evacuate Poles in Israel when Ben Gurion Airport is.... (checks notes) functioning normally.
https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1711618808169836709

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Turnout by Voivodeship

Turnout increase by Voivodeships.


Turnout in cities 23.25% (+4.73)
Turnout in villages 21.61 (+4.05)

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Much more reliable than Slovakian exits.

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Turnout at 5 p.m : 57.54% (+11.6)

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Turnout increase by Voivodeships as of 5 p.m

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If you're wondering why Gdansk is an outlier, it's currently raining heavily along the Baltic coast.

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Did I get this right?

-> PIS will remain largest party but without a majority, but Confederacy won't join their government, even with a majority for both of them?

-> PO-Third Way-Leftica could have a majority, but are they governing together? DId all 3 agree?

PO + TD + Lewica have repeatedly said that they will govern together if they win a majority.

Some parts of KON are more amenable to PIS, if PIS is close enough to a majority they could conceivably bribe a few.

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Live links
https://stream.tvp.pl/  (state broadcaster)

https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2023-10-15/wybory-parlamentarne-2023-polska-wybiera-wieczor-wyborczy-w-polsat-news-ogladaj/?ref=slider

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9 p.m. IPSOS EXIT POLL

PIS 36.8% - 200 seats
KO 31.6% - 163 seats
TD 13% - 55 seats
Lewica 8.6% - 30 seats
KON 6.2% - 12 seats
BEZ 2.4% - 0 seats

KO + TD + Lewica MAJORITY

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What about projected turnout??

72.9% highest ever in democratic Poland

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Did either of the exits bother on the 4 four referendum? Though i can probably guess the results in at least 2.

They only say that turnout for the referendum is 40% (you're allowed to reject the referendum ballots), which means that it is non binding.

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Do we already have some Exit poll numbers split by age, education, gender and so on??

https://tvn24.pl/polska/wybory-parlamentarne-2023-wyniki-sondazowe-jak-glosowali-mlodzi-7392628
Some fun numbers: according to the exit polls PIS is the fifth (!) most popular party in the 18-29 year old category.

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2 hours after polls close and no results?

It's always been slow + record turnout + 3 different ballots to count.

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Have the Singapore votes come in ?

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/gm/702
KO 54.98%
Lewica 17.61%
TD 14.62%
PIS 6.31%
KON 5.48%

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Does the Left Alliance NL need 5% for parties or 8% for alliances to gain seats within the parliament?

29% in

PIS 40
CC 26,4
TW 14,1
NL 8
C 7,3

No. Only KO and TD ran as coalitions.

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Looks different than the exit. Is this because rural/Eastern areas have already been counted more than Western/urban areas?

Heavy rural bias. Most medium sized cities are only about ~20% counted.

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I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

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We have the first city to finish counting and it's Częstochowa.

KO 35.8% (+7.4)
PIS 30.9% (-6.4)
Lewica 12.3% (-8.7)
TD/PSL 11.6% (+7.2)
KWN 5.9% (-0.1)

Changes from 2019

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I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

Can you name some of those seats? I just checked the partial results of a dozen constituencies, and I have missed the signs of potential Konfederacja gains.

1 - Legnica
5 - Toruń
7 - Chełm
11 - Sieradz
18 - Siedlice
24 - Białystok
36 - Kalisz

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55.55% In:

PIS 38%
KO 28%
3rd Way 14%
New Left 8%
KON 7%

https://tvpworld.com/73452472/polish-parliamentary-election-results-after-5555-of-votes-counted

I have to imagine that on these numbers, if these trends continue, the exit polls will turn out to be pretty accurate?

More or less

You can see the Confederacy overperformance as well

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I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

Can you name some of those seats? I just checked the partial results of a dozen constituencies, and I have missed the signs of potential Konfederacja gains.

1 - Legnica
5 - Toruń
7 - Chełm
11 - Sieradz
18 - Siedlice
24 - Białystok
36 - Kalisz

But if they end up around 7%, as the partial result-based estimations say, at least in some of these districts will fall below the de facto treshold. d'Hondt lottery at its best.

That's the fun of d'Hondt. Winning 7% of the vote gives you twice as many seats as winning 6%.

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Ipsos second late poll/projection
https://tvn24.pl/wybory-parlamentarne-2023

PIS 196 (-4)
KO 158 (-5)
TD 61 (+6)
Lewica 30
KWN 15 (+3)

Changes from original exit poll

KO + TD + Lewica = 249