These numbers (if accurate) suggest she has no path in a three-way race and at least on the surface would take more right-leaning votes than left-leaning votes. Especially if AZ Republican primary voters produce another superstar nominee who will be prone to losing some Republican voters, I'm not yet seeing how she has boxed out Gallego/the left like many are saying she has unless she is able to drastically turn around these numbers in a way that improves her standing with independents while paradoxically losing Republican support.
I'm going to state what appears to be the elephant in the room to me, but everyone else has collective memory loss. Does nobody remember the tale of Jeff Flake?
Sinema seems to be unintentionally walking her predecessors path despite being from a different party and holding different ideals. Both seem to think/have thought that bipartisanship is their path to reelection in a swing state. They know the McCain-ites, the compassionate suburban Mormans, and other R turning D demos are key.
Both however don't know haw to be bipartisan. Flake was a phony who spoke publicly against Trump but fell in line when voting time came, pissing off the desert radical Goser-types with his speachs but won only tiny amounts of Democratic affinity since he still was and behaved like a Republican. Sinema similarly publicly gets into spats prominent Dems and progressives, plummeting her approval among Dems. But it doesn't earn much GOP support cause she is still Sinema, a Liberal "alphabet" woman who at times looks like their stereotypes. Both ended up with only moderates they set out to persuade supporting them, and in a theoretical RCV situation where they are everyone's second choice but almost nobodies first choice.
Flake retired, cause he knew he couldn't win a GOP primary vs the radicals. Sinema has now become a I, effectively accepting Democratic approval and electoral support as a lost cause. But todays Arizona GOP won't be so accepting. Retirement therefore looms if the paths remain the same.
