I think it's very important to zoom-out from the number-crunching and campaign minutiae when discussing the 1st round results:
- Some eight years ago, Dilma's government engaged in extremely stupid heterodox meddling in central bank operations right around the time that commodity prices fell off of a cliff. Brazil's economy suffered a massive increase in unemployment and a burst of inflation. It has yet to recover from this severe recession. People continue to talk about "nostalgia" for Lula's presidency but this period is remembered by far more voters and it will tend to be attributed to...the PT and even Lula.
- Subsequently, Dilma Rousseff was impeached from office on trumped-up charges that anyone reasonable would view as being a soft "coup d'etat". There, was quite literally, an orchestrated campaign against her and those behind the campaign imposed radical constitutional reforms, and austerity on Brazil.
- Shortly after this, Lula was barred from running for President and imprisoned as part of an orchestrated campaign to throw the election towards the right. He was released from prison three years ago.
- In the election that Lula was barred from running in, the left was reduced to a rump and Haddad was crushed by over a ten point margin against a candidate widely despised by Brazilians. Just about anyone else would have made the election close, Ciro Gomes could have defeated Bolsonaro.
- Two years ago, it was considered a "good performance" that Boulos lost Sao Paulo mayoral election by 20 points and that Manuela d'Avila lost by 10 points in Porto Alegre. This, more or less, was a repeat of Haddad's disastrous performance. Lula won both cities by 10 points tonight.
Lula and, by extension, PT, PSOL and associated allies have risen from the dead to remain the only relevant opposition to fascist-flavored right-wing populism in Brazil. Lula was in prison. He will probably be President. Anyone who fails to see this as one of history's great comebacks is far too focused on the present, cannot see the big picture.
The one caveat to keep in mind is that if Lula was allowed to run in 2018, all of this could have been avoided. He probably would have crushed Bolsonaro, albeit not to the extent that polls predicted. He probably would have been lauded for his response to the pandemic simply because he wouldn't have implied that people dying of COVID are congenital weaklings deserving of such a fate. He then would have likely sailed to an easy re-election, in spite of all of the recent turbulence in the world. The main actors in Brazil responsible for this nightmare are Sergio Moro and elements in the judiciary that are crooked and vile. Bolsonaro is horrible, yes, but he was enabled by them and likely couldn't have become President without them...
Why did Haddad perform so badly in 2018 relative to any other potential candidate?
It's more that Lula is a very strong candidate than Haddad having been a weak one; if anything when you consider how much Dilma had become reviled Haddad actually performed quite strongly. DFB's point that Brazilian politics has polarized into a battle between PT-ism and Bolsonarismo, and so Lula (and his party) are the only real opposition, is true and was already substantially true by 2018.
Every comment in this chain is important, but I feel it is missing the key hinge underpinning everything. That all said, I know very little about Brazilian politics and have more knowledge about other South American systems, so I may be attempting apples to oranges comparisons here.
Brazil, likes most of South America these days, is a collapse-party personality driven system. The differing electoral rules for various levels of government + the two round runoff for high office that is prominent across South America has combined with past political traumas that differ by country to consistently weaken 'old' parties. We now talk about leaders and their various political followings and their bases, but these "Caudillos" often struggle to rule because of how the legislative rules ensure a multitude of seemingly incompatible political factions (which at times requires buying people off).
Lula is the king of this system in Brazil. Lula has a personal brand bigger than any other, and has governed modern Brazil through good, bad, and worse. PT therefore has an identity clearer and stronger than any other. However, because Lula is just one prominent actor within the system, his past wins may not be the utter partisan triumphs some imagine them today. This showed itself again: Lula's personal brand is the strongest around, looking further down the ladder of power reveals just how little that brand carries over to where other factions have their own personal brands.
