2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MillennialModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approx 220-216 seats and Dems gain in Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

[MillennialModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

Only 26 % say that the Inflation Reduction Act will actually curb Inflation while a Combined 71 % say Inflation will either stay the same or get worse.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1561356586949419008

This is devastating for Biden!

I would say this: Things have stabilized for Republicans especially on the House Front. The Senate is likely gone for Republicans.

This is why less climate and more child care or child tax credit or health care initiatives wouldve helped big time. The climate crisis is important but it’s not a winner with the voters - no one on the left seems to get that.

[MillennialModerate]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approximate 220-216 seats and a Dem gain in the Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Nonsense, I am going to call the Senate right now for Democrats and I say this as a staunch Republican America First Supporter. Oz is going to lose and Ron Johnson is in a very precarious Position as well. If those two Seats don't turn around soon Democrats will likely maintain control of the Senate.

I can see your point on Pennsylvania. However Wisconsin is laughable - that’s the worst pooled state in the nation. Polls are always way way way off. Johnson wins that seat

[MillennialModerate]

So I agree with prognosticators who say the GOP is a virtual lock for the house.

HOWEVER: With the generic ballot being around tied .. even Dems up a few points. How are others coming to that conclusion with the generic ballot favoring Dems?

[MillennialModerate]

So I agree with prognosticators who say the GOP is a virtual lock for the house.

HOWEVER: With the generic ballot being around tied .. even Dems up a few points. How are others coming to that conclusion with the generic ballot favoring Dems?

“With polling showing Dems tied or even ahead in polls, how can you say Dems are ahead”

What I’m saying is how are people getting to the conclusion the house is a lock for the GOP when the generic ballot is between tied and D+2… that’s 2 points off from a Dem win.

[MillennialModerate]

FOX News has D+3 on generic ballot

If that plays out - what’s the house rating at

[MillennialModerate]

Has The NY Times/Sienna poll been mentioned on here? That’s a catastrophic result for Dems and almost guarantees losing the Senate and the R’s gain maybe 20 seats or 25 in the house

[MillennialModerate]

Has The NY Times/Sienna poll been mentioned on here? That’s a catastrophic result for Dems and almost guarantees losing the Senate and the R’s gain maybe 20 seats or 25 in the house

Lol  take every poll with a grain of salt we are gonna win PA, AZ and GA that's 50 seats Rs aren't gaining 20/25 seats

You’re like a broken record

[MillennialModerate]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

[MillennialModerate]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

Spare me the bullsh**t about being a “troll”

The reality is the “doomers” have been more right then the sycophants have in here. Period.

And there is good reason to trust one over the others. Because polling had been consistently and dramatically more favorable in the Democratic direction in the past six years. So reading a poll that shows a four point lead for the Republicans, and a five point gain from a month ago, seems practically speaking more realistic and more likely.

There isn’t a single poster on these boards other then the broken record sanders who would say (at least credibly) that the D+7 is more likely then the R+4…. Hell a D+7 would see Dems not just hold the house but make gains. That’s laughable.

[MillennialModerate]

AP-NORC has D+7 on GCB, 41-34

https://apnorc.org/projects/voters-expect-the-2022-elections-to-have-serious-impacts-for-the-country/

LOL I would literally bet my kidneys this doesn’t come within 3 points of being accurate. Holy moly… the respected AP comes out with an absolute laugher of a poll?! Such a bad look for them

R+4 from a respected pollster = gospel, write the autopsy now
D+8 from a respected pollster = fake news, they’re ruining their reputation

If you’re going to selectively ignore polls and just go with your gut, then just admit that.

And I know that you specifically are a troll, but I really dislike the Atlas mentality of “whatever poll I saw most recently is the most accurate”.

Spare me the bullsh**t about being a “troll”

The reality is the “doomers” have been more right then the sycophants have in here. Period.

And there is good reason to trust one over the others. Because polling had been consistently and dramatically more favorable in the Democratic direction in the past six years. So reading a poll that shows a four point lead for the Republicans, and a five point gain from a month ago, seems practically speaking more realistic and more likely.

There isn’t a single poster on these boards other then the broken record sanders who would say (at least credibly) that the D+7 is more likely then the R+4…. Hell a D+7 would see Dems not just hold the house but make gains. That’s laughable.

Weren't you the one who said Kennedy would defeat Markey by at least 15 points?

I’m sure when the race first started I might’ve assumed Massachusetts voters would do what they’ve done for years - make the correct choice when it comes to the Kennedy’s.

However it was ME who - before a single poll showed Markey ahead said something to the effect of “I’m on the ground and this doesn’t look like a Kennedy win to me - Im sick to my stomach but I honestly think Markey is going to win this race from what I’ve seen”

I was wrong about Georgia in ‘20 most especially and Nevada in ‘18 but for the most part - I’ve been pretty spot on most races

[MillennialModerate]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

[MillennialModerate]

Why are we seeing polls with R +6 and Dems +4 like this is crazy. Can no one poll?

To be fair, the only polls showing R+6 are Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Harris, which have had dubious results at best.

Sienna/NYT is R+4 … close enough

[MillennialModerate]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Same. Pretty clear it’s over.

Polling is always wrong against the GOP. So showing a lead of that size shows a clear red wave

[MillennialModerate]

When does the NBC poll come out

[MillennialModerate]

My thinking of the popular vote being R+4 looks pretty spot on right now.  Maybe without Dobbs it would have been my original R+7 prediction.

mUh dO0mEr!!!!


Nah, you’re probably spot on

[MillennialModerate]

LMAO, look. I'm not gonna act like I know if any of this is right or not. But you really can't just use "oh it's just noise" when polls trend towards Democrats and then when they're trending towards Republicans then do the whole "this is real movement!"

Pretty sure whatever happens, pundits do not need a surprise Dem overperformance because it will make them look like jokes again.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1585412561717321728

The reason for that is - when polls show R’s gaining strength it lines up with the conditions in the country, the mood on the ground in most places, traditional history in mid terms, POTUS low approval numbers etc. When Dems do suspciously well in a poll it’s going against a whole bunch of evidence