AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol every poll has Kelly 2/3% ahead but the Gov race is a different story there hasn't been one poll and Lakeis favored .
That's what I am seeing D avatars whom grossly overpredicted Biden margin in 2020 are predicting R victories instead of siding with D's until the end lol it's 4% unemployment not 11% unemployment there isn't gonna be a 2010 wipeout

Trump had the same polls as Biden and was getting impeached on Ukraine and 5% unemployment netted Senate seats

He overperformed in 2020 Prez race because unemployment was going down from 9%

[2016]

Lol every poll has Kelly 2/3% ahead but the Gov race is a different story there hasn't been one poll and Lakeis favored .
That's what I am seeing D avatars whom grossly overpredicted Biden margin in 2020 are predicting R victories instead of siding with D's until the end lol it's 4% unemployment not 11% unemployment there isn't gonna be a 2010 wipeout

Trump had the same polls as Biden and was getting impeached on Ukraine and 5% unemployment netted Senate seats

He overperformed in 2020 Prez race because unemployment was going down from 9%

# 1 The biggest Issue isn't Unemployment, it's Inflation.
# 2 Haven't you read what Harry Enten was writing? There could be up to 5 % Difference between Registered & Likely Voter Polls. There is over a 10+ Point Gap in Voter Enthusiasm between Republicans and Democrats keen to vote in the November Election. Kelly is slightly ahead because of Registered Screens being used and the Republican Nominee not being chosen.

[Grassroots]

Masters: 49-51% chance at winning general election
Brnovich: 55-60% chance at winning general election

Let's dispel with this notion that Brnovich is more electable than Masters. Master's promo videos and campaign style are all calm and geared toward suburbanites in Arizona, even if his ideology is more geared towards the midwest. Meanwhile, Brnovich showcases himself with hard rock music while wielding nunchucks.

[SnowLabrador]

Masters: 49-51% chance at winning general election
Brnovich: 55-60% chance at winning general election

Let's dispel with this notion that Brnovich is more electable than Masters. Master's promo videos and campaign style are all calm and geared toward suburbanites in Arizona, even if his ideology is more geared towards the midwest. Meanwhile, Brnovich showcases himself with hard rock music while wielding nunchucks.

Electability is not defined by moderation, but rather by how much one can excite one's voters to go to the polls. The myth that electability is defined by moderation should've been shattered the instant Trump won.

[Utah Neolib]

Masters: 49-51% chance at winning general election
Brnovich: 55-60% chance at winning general election

Let's dispel with this notion that Brnovich is more electable than Masters. Master's promo videos and campaign style are all calm and geared toward suburbanites in Arizona, even if his ideology is more geared towards the midwest. Meanwhile, Brnovich showcases himself with hard rock music while wielding nunchucks.

what’s the problem with rock music or nunchucks

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Brnovich has less than a million cash-on-hand, is fundraising barely any money at all (likely not enough to keep up with the campaign), has no support from any SuperPAC and no notable endorsements. Trump has released multiple statements bashing Brnovich for not doing enough to help him overturn 2020, has praised a primary competitor and will almost definitely not endorse him. Brnovich also is only polling in the high 20s despite an insane name recognition advantage, there are a TON of undecideds in this race and the primary is only in August. Lamon and Masters (who are both much better funded and have grassroots support) are also less than 10 points away from overtaking him.

Anyone who thinks Brnovich will win the primary is out of their mind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is gonna win this race he only served 1 yr in office not 5 yrs so Rs thinking that they are absolutely gonna win is incorrect, and there has been no poll showing Kelly losing they all have had Kelly narrowly ahead just like NV and Laxalt whom lost a Gov race in 2018 he should of won

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Kelly is gonna win this race he only served 1 yr in office not 5 yrs so Rs thinking that they are absolutely gonna win is incorrect, and there has been no poll showing Kelly losing they all have had Kelly narrowly ahead just like NV and Laxalt whom lost a Gov race in 2018 he should of won

The only polling done for the Arizona general Senate election has been done by notoriously bad D-biased pollster OH Predictive. They had Kelly only up 4 while they had Cortez-Masto up 9, so if Kelly is doing 5 points worse than Cortez-Masto who is clearly vulnerable then he is in serious trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would believe you but we don't have all the polls let's see the polls in OH, NC, WI and PA we can know if OH Predictive but they won't, they won't poll other states the easiest states to poll are Latino states

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1504907515791917062
Trump attacks Brnovich again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH Predictive correctly predicted the 2020 AZ Senate race and just because Kelly is ahead doesn't mean it's wrong, Kelly will win, some predicted him losing last yr

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1509973398817894402
Masters raises over a million this quarter, 3rd quarter he's raised over 1M so far (which does NOT include his Thiel money).

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1511545459373920258

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We definitely need another poll in this and the Gov race

[xavier110]

A libertarian qualified for the ballot in this race. Wasn’t expecting that, the most interesting development after a sleepy few months.

[SnowLabrador]

A libertarian qualified for the ballot in this race. Wasn’t expecting that, the most interesting development after a sleepy few months.

Who do you think the GOP nominee will be as of now?

[xavier110]

A libertarian qualified for the ballot in this race. Wasn’t expecting that, the most interesting development after a sleepy few months.

Who do you think the GOP nominee will be as of now?

Masters. And Robson, who’s running a decent campaign, for gov.

[wbrocks67]

Kelly with an eye-popping $11.3M haul in Q1

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1512116281276870658?s=20&t=ybsVgnZ-_I-1-YYQ5lIlzQ

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only partisan Rs think Kelly is gonna lose

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

[wbrocks67]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

Until Kari Lake brings down the entire ticket.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

Until Kari Lake brings down the entire ticket.

I don't think Kari Lake is any less strong than Generic R.

[wbrocks67]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

Until Kari Lake brings down the entire ticket.

I don't think Kari Lake is any less strong than Generic R.

I would disagree. She's a total crackpot and has went out of her way to endorse far-right conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and other things. She's way worse than a generic R. At this point, McSally would basically be a generic R and Lake is way more far-right than she is, and unabashedly so.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It's good he has the money, but money itself doesn't matter, it's really how one uses it to campaign (and only that can do so much). I expect once we have a claer picture of the R, they will be well funded too.

Until Kari Lake brings down the entire ticket.

I don't think Kari Lake is any less strong than Generic R.

I would disagree. She's a total crackpot and has went out of her way to endorse far-right conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and other things. She's way worse than a generic R. At this point, McSally would basically be a generic R and Lake is way more far-right than she is, and unabashedly so.

Being far-right or endorsing 2020 conspiracy theories (which basically all non-incumbent 2022 candidates have done across the US) does not make someone a bad candidate.
She seems well-spoken in interviews and she comes across like the sort of person who can smartly adapt once she wins the primary.

[xavier110]

Kari Lake represents the worst of American politics. A compulsive liar, grifter, ex Obama voter now Trump worshipper, unhinged narcissist, etc. I don’t know how anyone thinks she’s arrived where she is today with even the littlest bit of interest in public service. From my vantage point, it’s alllllll about her.

She’s running a terrible campaign and will be lucky if she wins the primary. Robson has all the momentum, cash on hand, and the GOP institutional backing/Ducey’s consultants. I fully expect her to win.

If she got the nomination, I do think she could possibly underperform Kelly’s opponent, but she definitely wouldn’t sink the AZ GOP and would probably still win comfortably. Katie Hobbs is an atrocious candidate and 2022 will be an annihilation of the Ds.