2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

Huber: 32%
Seehofer: 28%
Pauli: 24%

CSU members only:

Huber: 45%
Seehofer: 33%
Pauli: 15%

Very bad figures for Seehofer. Never really stood a chance, but Pauli's entry made it worse. Huber will basically be coronated *ready to be positively surprised*

[minionofmidas]

That's only as long as the SPD is trailing the CDU in the polls... Roland Koch leading a Grand Coalition is a scary and unsettling thought. To virtually everybody. (Of course, to his fans the scary and unsettling part is of him being forced to rely on Ypsilanti to govern.)

Meanwhile, the guy whom the Left Party leadership wanted to lead the list, Dieter Hooge, a bigwig union official (recently retired) and for forty years a member of the SPD, has been voted down by the convention delegates, by a vote of 59 for him to 81 for his opponent, a Marburg local politician who until '96 was in the DKP (Marburg is the only place of any size with 5% thresholds where the DKP had a long history of being in parliament.) Hooge chose not to seek a position further down on the list. Hooge was controversial because of
a) the way he'd been installed from "above"
b) the undemocratic ways DGB unions are led and the big paychecks their leaders give themselves and their cozy relationships with management
c) his not ruling out a red-green-red coalition (apart from those in the Left who don't want to govern under any circumstances, I suppose there were also those who felt that talking the option up is playing the CDU's game in this election campaign).

The convention took place in the Bürgerhaus Bornheim, just down the road from where I grew up.

[minionofmidas]

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What is Freie Wahler? "Free Elections"?
 

"Free Voters".

[minionofmidas]

Pretty bad result for Huber. Though I had hoped for worse.

[minionofmidas]

A second ballot, even if he had led, would have been so embarassing for Huber that he might not have even faced a second one. Huber's victory has been considered a certainty for months.

[minionofmidas]

Probably contested only a smattering of towns.

[minionofmidas]

Hesse (FGW, 12/07)

CDU 40%
SPD 34%
GRÜNE 9%
FDP 7%
DIE LINKE 6%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/GRÜNE.

I'll go out on a limb and predict the result right now:

CDU 40.5%
SPD 36%
Grüne 8%
FDP 6%
Linke 6%

[minionofmidas]

That is correct, as of today. Given my frustrations with the Hessian and Frankfurt Greens (and the problems with the Hessian Left Party...) the best way for the Greens to regain my vote would probably be to fall below the Left in polls, or for both to poll just around the threshold. One vote more or less doesn't mean much, after all, unless it's the vote that makes the threshold.
And the constituency vote for the Social Democrat because my constituency Christian Democrat is someone I'd never heard of before who says this election is about defending Freedom against the Left Camp (direct quote) and the Social Democrat has been a pretty good city councillor for the past 10 years and is Turkish. And of course because any other vote is wasted anyways. The Green candidate is pretty good as well (and Iranian, though married to a german guy. No, she doesn't wear a headscarf. In case you were wondering.) but the Left candidate is completely unelectable - ex Linksruck (German branch of the SWP basically. Has merged into the Left Party recently, following the doctrine of Deep Entrism.)

wishful thinking.

i think koch will start a short and hard campaign and will lead his cdu up to 44%.

that should be enough with the helpful liberals to be successful.

B.N.

Perhaps, except that Koch at 44 means not much more than 5 for the FDP, and that Koch's "short and hard campaign" is absolutely nowhere to be seen on the ground. This election is going to be nowhere near 2003. It might be similar to 99, 95, 91 and 87 though... ie ending up very very close with neither side campaigning impressively. It's tradition for Hessian elections to go down to the wire...
Compare, incidentally, candidate head-to-heads, for what they're worth. That same poll has Koch 45 - Ypsilanti 32... and while that doesn't sound impressive, it's actually the best a challenger has looked in these head to heads in Hesse at this point since 1987.

[minionofmidas]

there is no reason for hessia to change government.

Not sure where to begin here, so I'll just leave that out, ok?

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Not very much, no. More so than Walter though (the SPD rightie from the Wetterau who ran against her for the nomination, and almost won. And who looks and sounds like he should be in the FDP - by which I'm not saying he actually should be, of course). More than Koch, actually, who isn't either and has never tried to pretend to be. And spades more than Gerhard Bökel... unfortunately, that goes for about 75 million people in Germany.

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It's been underways since 2005. Mostly because the race hasn't really moved much anywhere since 2005. It will be stepped up, obviously... you're completely mistaken about the point of such campaigns, though. The point is not to "appeal to the people" but to appeal to the 45% of the population that might conceivably vote for you, in the hopes that they all turn out while the other side doesn't. ... it works only if the other side has nothing to counter it.
And Koch is indeed good at these things ... but he also got pig lucky twice. In 99 the Greens were in complete disarray, in 2003 it was the SPD.

[minionofmidas]

Okay then, explain the last two Bundestag elections' outcomes. Explain the current polls. Explain the Left Party's popularity.

The CDU has only one way to win elections left... turnout, turnout, turnout. (I am of course exempting the traditional strongholds here.) Depressed turnout, to be precise. (And still getting their core supporters to the polls... that part matters, too.) Of course, calling that "only one way" when it's so easy - when it's being made so easy for them - is somewhat specious. It doesn't change the basic fact that you're living in a country with a left wing structural majority. And have been since about 1992.

and however he will govern four (or five?) more years.

It's five.

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No contest on this one... no member of the Eichel cabinets is playing any role in politics anymore (will any be left in the Landtag after January? I'd have to check.), that says a lot I guess.
I don't think Ypsilanti is an outstanding candidate. Far from it. But I know what catastrophic SPD campaigns look like - Hessen 03, Frankfurt city council 06, Frankfurt mayoral 07 - and what normal to bad SPD campaigns look like - Bundestag 05 - and what the results to expect after either type of campaign look like. And this one is a normal to bad SPD campaign.

[minionofmidas]

Just in case this basic fact has gotten lost - I'm NOT ruling out that Koch will pull out another close win. Far from it.

I'm also not sure why everyone believes that a majority for Red-Red-Green means such a government. A toleration or even a CDU led Grand Coalition are both more realistic. After all, there's the strong right wing of the Hessian SPD to think of. Which gets me to the interesting question - who will be the next CDU state PM of Hesse? For it's hard - but not impossible - to picture the SPD - even its right wing - getting into bed with the man most of their voters see as basically the Devil Reincarnate. And Koch has never governed, as most state CDU's do, with a sort of intra party coalition, surrounding himself entirely with rightie yes men (and women) instead, and has no heir apparent. (Well, Jung maybe, but I'm not sure he'd be acceptable to the state SPD either. After all, he too was implicated in the Spendensumpf, and actually had to resign to save his master's head back then.) The main reason Angela Merkel survived her 2005 defeat (along with Schröder's ego trip) was that there were too many heirs apparent - the first out of the breach would have certainly lost all chances of succeeding her himself.

[minionofmidas]

This is election.de (site Old Europe seems to love)'s current prediction of direct seats in Hesse. Dark blue is safe CDU, light blue likely CDU, light red likely SPD, dark red safe SPD. (Actually, you could also say that either shade of blue is CDU hold, light red is SPD gain, and dark red is SPD hold. )
I have some problems with this prognosis. Maybe they have special access to internals showing the CDU doing worse in the city of Frankfurt than outside it or something, but there's several seats shown as "safe CDU" that you'd expect to fall before three of the four "likely CDU" Frankfurt seats. Maybe they're just expecting red-green vote splitting to reach the kind of levels it had in recent Bundestag elections, considering it artificially deflated in the last two statewides - a case for that claim can certainly be made. (as there's been a massive increase in vote splitting in all elections since 1995) Doesn't really explain how Sachsenhausen is not safe for the CDU on a statewiede poll lead of 6-13 percent (they're taking all recent polls into account). Vogelsberg *safe* CDU?

[minionofmidas]

Beat me for the 99 map. Although my version has district names. And yours has errors in Groß-Gerau and Darmstadt (tiny figure east of 49 is a 51.)

[minionofmidas]

Ah, here goes. I'll have an indepth look myself, I think. Clicking on the districts gets you the list vote. "Wahlkreisstimmen" is constituency vote.

Note that several constituencies were redrawn for 2008:
- two municipalities transferred from 2 to 1 (halfing the size of the enclave north of Kassel)
- three(?) municipalities transferred from 19 (largest electorate in Hesse in 2003) to 18
- a new 27 created in the northwestern Wetterau
- old 27 and 28 renumbered 28 and 29
- old 29 split between 30 and 31. Central (not geographically) Wiesbaden now united within 30.
- some juggling in Main-Kinzig (one municipality from 42 to 40, one from 41 to 40, one pretty large one from 40 to 41.)
- installation of sane boundaries in Groß-Gerau district (two for one exchange of municipalites. No, the big area to the South is the single municipality)

[minionofmidas]

Hesse (Forsa, 12/12)

CDU 41%
SPD 30%
GRÜNE 11%
FDP 9%
DIE LINKE 5%

Majority for CDU/FDP.

Best compared to Forsa's previous poll from september.

to recapitulate:
CDU 43%
SPD 30%
Greens 9%
FDP 8%
Left 5%
others 5%

In federal polls too, Forsa has recently been underestimating the SPD (or everyone else has been overestimating them... jury`s still out. ) Problem with the weighting formula. (This should not be construed to mean that Forsa has a political anti-SPD bias. Indeed, more like the opposite.) As to the difference between these two polls, mostly MoE madness.

[minionofmidas]

Some statistical data on Frankfurt constituencies...

no. of reg.d voters, 2003 election
I 56,174
II 60,996
III 64,496
IV 66,849
V 64,378
VI 68,134

change in no. of reg.d voters, 2003 election to dec. 31st 2006
I + 612
II + 903
III + 1322
IV + 1228
V + 1699
VI + 2458

population, dec. 31st, 2006
I 99,948
II 100,050
III 112,309
IV 105,931
V 101,160
VI 112,808

noncitizen proportion, same date
I 29.4%
II 25.7%
III 29.8%
IV 23.4%
V 24.7%
VI 21.6%

Unemployment rate, same date
I 9.5%
II 7.4%
III 7.6%
IV 6.1%
V 6.1%
VI 7.9%

Surface area (in sq km) and pop. density (per sq km)
I 34.7 / 2880
II 28.7 / 3486
III 21.6 / 5199
IV 82.5 / 1284
V 12.8 / 7903
VI 68.0 / 1659

percentage of housing units in 1- or 2- unit structures
I 17.3%
II 15.4%
III 7.3%
IV 11.5%
V 2.7%
VI 25.3%

no. of new housing units completed Jan 1st 04 - Dec 31st 06
I 567
II 1124
III 367
IV 1051
V 1260
VI 1926

Percentage of reg.d voters residing at their current address for less than five years
I 33.3%
II 34.3%
III 39.6%
IV 35.3%
V 42.1%
VI 33.5%

dito, more than 15 years
I 39.9%
II 39.2%
III 33.8%
IV 38.4%
V 32.6%
VI 39.7%

turnout, 2003
I 55.4%
II 61.1%
III 61.1%
IV 63.3%
V 62.9%
VI 61.7%

[minionofmidas]

Boredom is a dreadful thing:

Seems to be, doesn't it?

[minionofmidas]

population, dec. 31st, 2006
I 99,948
II 100,050
III 112,309
IV 105,931
V 101,160
VI 112,808

Totalling 632,206.
This, of course, is by "primary place of residence". Including persons with only a secondary residence within the city, it was 661,877. I'm mentioning that only because I do have newer data for that figure (only for the city at large).
March 31st 662,359
June 30th 663,567
Sep 30th 667,598
Largest by-quarter increase in 15 years.

[minionofmidas]

I've been calculating Bundestag election results by Landtag constituency! (new boundaries)

constituency no - reg.d votes (k) - turnout - SPD - CDU - Greens - FDP - Left - other
All figures for the list vote.

1 95 81.0 46.6 - 28.1 - 7.7 - 8.8 - 5.8 - 3.0
2 98 83.1 48.9 - 26.2 - 8.5 - 8.1 - 5.5 - 2.8
3 71 80.0 38.2 - 27.4 - 16.4 - 8.9 - 7.0 - 2.1
4 68 71.1 45.4 - 25.1 - 11.1 - 7.1 - 8.1 - 3.3
5 70 78.1 39.3 - 34.1 - 7.0 - 11.3 - 5.0 - 3.2 Left just under 5
6 60 75.8 40.0 - 32.7 - 7.2 - 11.1 - 5.4 - 3.6
7 73 82.9 48.1 - 26.3 - 7.6 - 9.2 - 5.7 - 3.0
8 77 78.5 44.2 - 28.7 - 6.9 - 10.1 - 6.0 - 4.1
9 64 78.6 44.2 - 28.9 - 8.3 - 8.9 - 6.7 - 3.0
10 61 80.6 45.6 - 30.2 - 5.9 - 8.9 - 5.9 - 3.4 Left just above Greens
11 64 78.5 45.9 - 30.4 - 6.0 - 8.5 - 5.1 - 4.0
12 88 78.3 42.0 - 31.8 - 7.2 - 9.3 - 5.8 - 3.9
13 96 78.2 36.0 - 32.0 - 12.7 - 9.6 - 6.5 - 3.3
14 83 76.9 27.8 - 47.8 - 6.2 - 10.0 - 4.5 - 3.6
15 84 82.6 27.7 - 47.0 - 5.7 - 10.3 - 4.6 - 4.8
16 95 73.7 36.1 - 36.7 - 6.0 - 10.5 - 5.8 - 4.9
17 99 76.4 37.9 - 33.3 - 8.3 - 10.8 - 5.8 - 3.9
18 94 76.6 36.7 - 29.6 - 12.9 - 11.6 - 6.4 - 2.9
19 96 78.4 35.9 - 32.9 - 9.1 - 13.2 - 5.3 - 3.7
20 92 78.0 37.9 - 33.2 - 6.8 - 12.3 - 5.5 - 4.2
21 66 77.2 29.9 - 45.7 - 6.3 - 10.9 - 4.1 - 3.2
22 67 77.3 36.8 - 37.1 - 7.0 - 10.6 - 5.0 - 3.5 Left just over 5
23 86 82.7 26.7 - 38.0 - 10.6 - 17.6 - 4.2 - 2.9
24 78 84.2 25.4 - 39.2 - 10.7 - 18.3 - 3.9 - 2.5
25 78 81.7 32.2 - 35.7 - 11.2 - 13.4 - 4.6 - 2.9
26 74 76.9 38.4 - 31.7 - 7.5 - 11.5 - 5.4 - 5.4
27 68 77.8 33.8 - 35.5 - 9.0 - 12.8 - 4.8 - 4.1
28 61 80.6 31.4 - 38.9 - 9.6 - 13.4 - 4.0 - 2.7
29 77 81.9 33.8 - 35.3 - 10.4 - 13.4 - 4.2 - 3.0
30 97 73.8 32.1 - 30.6 - 15.1 - 13.3 - 5.7 - 3.2
31 89 77.5 33.2 - 33.7 - 11.5 - 13.3 - 4.6 - 3.7
32 82 83.5 26.4 - 40.8 - 9.8 - 17.0 - 3.6 - 2.4
33 80 82.6 29.5 - 39.2 - 10.3 - 14.1 - 3.8 - 3.1
34 57 70.2 34.0 - 32.3 - 10.8 - 10.7 - 6.7 - 5.5
35 61 75.7 31.7 - 27.4 - 17.7 - 11.9 - 7.3 - 4.0
36 66 76.2 28.2 - 28.3 - 17.3 - 15.6 - 6.8 - 2.9
37 68 77.5 29.1 - 31.5 - 15.2 - 15.5 - 5.7 - 3.0
38 66 78.4 29.2 - 24.3 - 23.7 - 12.9 - 7.5 - 2.4
39 70 76.1 31.4 - 31.5 - 13.8 - 13.1 - 6.2 - 4.0
40 99 81.5 35.0 - 35.4 - 8.7 - 11.6 - 5.2 - 4.0
41 97 75.6 34.0 - 34.2 - 9.4 - 11.8 - 5.9 - 4.6
42 100 78.5 34.7 - 36.4 - 7.9 - 10.8 - 5.3 - 4.9
43 67 71.2 34.3 - 33.3 - 11.3 - 10.4 - 6.5 - 4.3
44 84 79.9 31.4 - 35.5 - 11.8 - 13.9 - 4.6 - 2.8
45 69 79.7 30.8 - 39.1 - 9.3 - 12.8 - 4.6 - 3.4
46 83 81.8 29.8 - 40.5 - 9.5 - 12.7 - 4.0 - 3.5
47 81 79.0 40.0 - 29.8 - 10.3 - 10.2 - 5.1 - 4.5
48 89 80.9 38.6 - 30.5 - 11.1 - 11.1 - 5.2 - 3.6 Greens ahead of FDP
49 61 77.5 36.1 - 27.5 - 18.2 - 9.6 - 6.2 - 2.5
50 70 80.5 36.5 - 30.1 - 14.5 - 11.1 - 5.3 - 2.5
51 84 80.8 37.5 - 31.2 - 11.9 - 11.4 - 4.7 - 3.3
52 91 80.7 35.6 - 34.3 - 10.1 - 11.4 - 4.8 - 3.8
53 74 77.9 38.8 - 31.9 - 8.4 - 10.9 - 5.7 - 4.2
54 102 79.0 36.5 - 36.2 - 7.9  10.8 - 4.5 - 4.1
55 97 79.7 34.1 - 36.9 - 9.4 - 11.5 - 4.0 - 4.1

Some notes -
the redistricting merely removed any districts so unequal as to endanger the validity of the election. It didn't seek to equalize populations and create a map that could last for 25 years (the age of the previous one). The one exception is Groß-Gerau district; I suppose the remap here (which makes sense) was popular locally. Although inequality is somewhat exaggerated by the fact that Hesse uses population, not citizen population as Federal Law does. (So the Frankfurt districts aren't quite as undersized as they look.)
On 2005 figures, when the SPD won by 2.0 percentage points statewide, the SPD is ahead in 31 constituencies and the CDU in 24. The breakup, though, is remarkable: Of the SPD wins, 11 are by more than 10 points, 15 by 2 to 10 points and 5 by under 2 points. Of the CDU wins, 7 are by more than 10 points, 7 by 2 to 10 points and no less than 10 are by under 2 points!

[minionofmidas]

Update:

[minionofmidas]

Current figures of the Wahlbörse run by the FR:

Hessen 2008
CDU 39.41%  SPD 31.56%  Grüne 9.89%  FDP 7.67%  Linke 7.49%  Andere 3.98%

It's with play money though, not real money as on intrade.

[minionofmidas]

"Advanced Market Research" (never heard of that one before...).

Me neither. From their poll results though, they might have just taken everybody else's polls and taken a guess. And probably not a bad guess either...

EDIT: The company has been in business for 25 years. Political polling, though, seems to be not one of the things they usually do.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah. As was to be expected I suppose...

[minionofmidas]

Who keeps polling Bavaria? The CSU will be reelected with ease in Bavaria. Even though the elections are still some way off.

[minionofmidas]

I'll go out on a limb and predict the result right now:

CDU 40.5%
SPD 36%
Grüne 8%
FDP 6%
Linke 6%

Getting closer...

And yes, there does seem to be a genuine rallying toward the SPD among left-leaning voters going on. At least among the people I've spoken to recently...