2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

I dug up the 2003 map:





And 1999:





2003 results: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/tab.pl?datafile=ltw_he03.txt
Wahlkreisstimmen = district votes
Landesstimmen = party votes
Sitze = no. of total seats won (districts + party lists)
Wahlkreise = no. of districts won

[minionofmidas]

Beat me for the 99 map. Although my version has district names. And yours has errors in Groß-Gerau and Darmstadt (tiny figure east of 49 is a 51.)

[minionofmidas]

Ah, here goes. I'll have an indepth look myself, I think. Clicking on the districts gets you the list vote. "Wahlkreisstimmen" is constituency vote.

Note that several constituencies were redrawn for 2008:
- two municipalities transferred from 2 to 1 (halfing the size of the enclave north of Kassel)
- three(?) municipalities transferred from 19 (largest electorate in Hesse in 2003) to 18
- a new 27 created in the northwestern Wetterau
- old 27 and 28 renumbered 28 and 29
- old 29 split between 30 and 31. Central (not geographically) Wiesbaden now united within 30.
- some juggling in Main-Kinzig (one municipality from 42 to 40, one from 41 to 40, one pretty large one from 40 to 41.)
- installation of sane boundaries in Groß-Gerau district (two for one exchange of municipalites. No, the big area to the South is the single municipality)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hesse (Forsa, 12/12)

CDU 41%
SPD 30%
GRÜNE 11%
FDP 9%
DIE LINKE 5%

Majority for CDU/FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Hesse (Forsa, 12/12)

CDU 41%
SPD 30%
GRÜNE 11%
FDP 9%
DIE LINKE 5%

Majority for CDU/FDP.

Best compared to Forsa's previous poll from september.

to recapitulate:
CDU 43%
SPD 30%
Greens 9%
FDP 8%
Left 5%
others 5%

In federal polls too, Forsa has recently been underestimating the SPD (or everyone else has been overestimating them... jury`s still out. ) Problem with the weighting formula. (This should not be construed to mean that Forsa has a political anti-SPD bias. Indeed, more like the opposite.) As to the difference between these two polls, mostly MoE madness.

[minionofmidas]

Some statistical data on Frankfurt constituencies...

no. of reg.d voters, 2003 election
I 56,174
II 60,996
III 64,496
IV 66,849
V 64,378
VI 68,134

change in no. of reg.d voters, 2003 election to dec. 31st 2006
I + 612
II + 903
III + 1322
IV + 1228
V + 1699
VI + 2458

population, dec. 31st, 2006
I 99,948
II 100,050
III 112,309
IV 105,931
V 101,160
VI 112,808

noncitizen proportion, same date
I 29.4%
II 25.7%
III 29.8%
IV 23.4%
V 24.7%
VI 21.6%

Unemployment rate, same date
I 9.5%
II 7.4%
III 7.6%
IV 6.1%
V 6.1%
VI 7.9%

Surface area (in sq km) and pop. density (per sq km)
I 34.7 / 2880
II 28.7 / 3486
III 21.6 / 5199
IV 82.5 / 1284
V 12.8 / 7903
VI 68.0 / 1659

percentage of housing units in 1- or 2- unit structures
I 17.3%
II 15.4%
III 7.3%
IV 11.5%
V 2.7%
VI 25.3%

no. of new housing units completed Jan 1st 04 - Dec 31st 06
I 567
II 1124
III 367
IV 1051
V 1260
VI 1926

Percentage of reg.d voters residing at their current address for less than five years
I 33.3%
II 34.3%
III 39.6%
IV 35.3%
V 42.1%
VI 33.5%

dito, more than 15 years
I 39.9%
II 39.2%
III 33.8%
IV 38.4%
V 32.6%
VI 39.7%

turnout, 2003
I 55.4%
II 61.1%
III 61.1%
IV 63.3%
V 62.9%
VI 61.7%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg (Infratest dimap, 12/14)

CDU 41%
SPD 34%
GRÜNE 12%
DIE LINKE 7%
FDP 3%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/GRÜNE.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boredom is a dreadful thing:



Colours sometimes random, sometimes only semi-random. Apologies for any mistakes.

[minionofmidas]

Boredom is a dreadful thing:

Seems to be, doesn't it?

[minionofmidas]

population, dec. 31st, 2006
I 99,948
II 100,050
III 112,309
IV 105,931
V 101,160
VI 112,808

Totalling 632,206.
This, of course, is by "primary place of residence". Including persons with only a secondary residence within the city, it was 661,877. I'm mentioning that only because I do have newer data for that figure (only for the city at large).
March 31st 662,359
June 30th 663,567
Sep 30th 667,598
Largest by-quarter increase in 15 years.

[minionofmidas]

I've been calculating Bundestag election results by Landtag constituency! (new boundaries)

constituency no - reg.d votes (k) - turnout - SPD - CDU - Greens - FDP - Left - other
All figures for the list vote.

1 95 81.0 46.6 - 28.1 - 7.7 - 8.8 - 5.8 - 3.0
2 98 83.1 48.9 - 26.2 - 8.5 - 8.1 - 5.5 - 2.8
3 71 80.0 38.2 - 27.4 - 16.4 - 8.9 - 7.0 - 2.1
4 68 71.1 45.4 - 25.1 - 11.1 - 7.1 - 8.1 - 3.3
5 70 78.1 39.3 - 34.1 - 7.0 - 11.3 - 5.0 - 3.2 Left just under 5
6 60 75.8 40.0 - 32.7 - 7.2 - 11.1 - 5.4 - 3.6
7 73 82.9 48.1 - 26.3 - 7.6 - 9.2 - 5.7 - 3.0
8 77 78.5 44.2 - 28.7 - 6.9 - 10.1 - 6.0 - 4.1
9 64 78.6 44.2 - 28.9 - 8.3 - 8.9 - 6.7 - 3.0
10 61 80.6 45.6 - 30.2 - 5.9 - 8.9 - 5.9 - 3.4 Left just above Greens
11 64 78.5 45.9 - 30.4 - 6.0 - 8.5 - 5.1 - 4.0
12 88 78.3 42.0 - 31.8 - 7.2 - 9.3 - 5.8 - 3.9
13 96 78.2 36.0 - 32.0 - 12.7 - 9.6 - 6.5 - 3.3
14 83 76.9 27.8 - 47.8 - 6.2 - 10.0 - 4.5 - 3.6
15 84 82.6 27.7 - 47.0 - 5.7 - 10.3 - 4.6 - 4.8
16 95 73.7 36.1 - 36.7 - 6.0 - 10.5 - 5.8 - 4.9
17 99 76.4 37.9 - 33.3 - 8.3 - 10.8 - 5.8 - 3.9
18 94 76.6 36.7 - 29.6 - 12.9 - 11.6 - 6.4 - 2.9
19 96 78.4 35.9 - 32.9 - 9.1 - 13.2 - 5.3 - 3.7
20 92 78.0 37.9 - 33.2 - 6.8 - 12.3 - 5.5 - 4.2
21 66 77.2 29.9 - 45.7 - 6.3 - 10.9 - 4.1 - 3.2
22 67 77.3 36.8 - 37.1 - 7.0 - 10.6 - 5.0 - 3.5 Left just over 5
23 86 82.7 26.7 - 38.0 - 10.6 - 17.6 - 4.2 - 2.9
24 78 84.2 25.4 - 39.2 - 10.7 - 18.3 - 3.9 - 2.5
25 78 81.7 32.2 - 35.7 - 11.2 - 13.4 - 4.6 - 2.9
26 74 76.9 38.4 - 31.7 - 7.5 - 11.5 - 5.4 - 5.4
27 68 77.8 33.8 - 35.5 - 9.0 - 12.8 - 4.8 - 4.1
28 61 80.6 31.4 - 38.9 - 9.6 - 13.4 - 4.0 - 2.7
29 77 81.9 33.8 - 35.3 - 10.4 - 13.4 - 4.2 - 3.0
30 97 73.8 32.1 - 30.6 - 15.1 - 13.3 - 5.7 - 3.2
31 89 77.5 33.2 - 33.7 - 11.5 - 13.3 - 4.6 - 3.7
32 82 83.5 26.4 - 40.8 - 9.8 - 17.0 - 3.6 - 2.4
33 80 82.6 29.5 - 39.2 - 10.3 - 14.1 - 3.8 - 3.1
34 57 70.2 34.0 - 32.3 - 10.8 - 10.7 - 6.7 - 5.5
35 61 75.7 31.7 - 27.4 - 17.7 - 11.9 - 7.3 - 4.0
36 66 76.2 28.2 - 28.3 - 17.3 - 15.6 - 6.8 - 2.9
37 68 77.5 29.1 - 31.5 - 15.2 - 15.5 - 5.7 - 3.0
38 66 78.4 29.2 - 24.3 - 23.7 - 12.9 - 7.5 - 2.4
39 70 76.1 31.4 - 31.5 - 13.8 - 13.1 - 6.2 - 4.0
40 99 81.5 35.0 - 35.4 - 8.7 - 11.6 - 5.2 - 4.0
41 97 75.6 34.0 - 34.2 - 9.4 - 11.8 - 5.9 - 4.6
42 100 78.5 34.7 - 36.4 - 7.9 - 10.8 - 5.3 - 4.9
43 67 71.2 34.3 - 33.3 - 11.3 - 10.4 - 6.5 - 4.3
44 84 79.9 31.4 - 35.5 - 11.8 - 13.9 - 4.6 - 2.8
45 69 79.7 30.8 - 39.1 - 9.3 - 12.8 - 4.6 - 3.4
46 83 81.8 29.8 - 40.5 - 9.5 - 12.7 - 4.0 - 3.5
47 81 79.0 40.0 - 29.8 - 10.3 - 10.2 - 5.1 - 4.5
48 89 80.9 38.6 - 30.5 - 11.1 - 11.1 - 5.2 - 3.6 Greens ahead of FDP
49 61 77.5 36.1 - 27.5 - 18.2 - 9.6 - 6.2 - 2.5
50 70 80.5 36.5 - 30.1 - 14.5 - 11.1 - 5.3 - 2.5
51 84 80.8 37.5 - 31.2 - 11.9 - 11.4 - 4.7 - 3.3
52 91 80.7 35.6 - 34.3 - 10.1 - 11.4 - 4.8 - 3.8
53 74 77.9 38.8 - 31.9 - 8.4 - 10.9 - 5.7 - 4.2
54 102 79.0 36.5 - 36.2 - 7.9  10.8 - 4.5 - 4.1
55 97 79.7 34.1 - 36.9 - 9.4 - 11.5 - 4.0 - 4.1

Some notes -
the redistricting merely removed any districts so unequal as to endanger the validity of the election. It didn't seek to equalize populations and create a map that could last for 25 years (the age of the previous one). The one exception is Groß-Gerau district; I suppose the remap here (which makes sense) was popular locally. Although inequality is somewhat exaggerated by the fact that Hesse uses population, not citizen population as Federal Law does. (So the Frankfurt districts aren't quite as undersized as they look.)
On 2005 figures, when the SPD won by 2.0 percentage points statewide, the SPD is ahead in 31 constituencies and the CDU in 24. The breakup, though, is remarkable: Of the SPD wins, 11 are by more than 10 points, 15 by 2 to 10 points and 5 by under 2 points. Of the CDU wins, 7 are by more than 10 points, 7 by 2 to 10 points and no less than 10 are by under 2 points!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Key is the same as used for all those U.K maps I made a while back.

[minionofmidas]

Update:

[minionofmidas]

Current figures of the Wahlbörse run by the FR:

Hessen 2008
CDU 39.41%  SPD 31.56%  Grüne 9.89%  FDP 7.67%  Linke 7.49%  Andere 3.98%

It's with play money though, not real money as on intrade.

[Tender Branson]

New poll for Tyrol:

ÖVP: 41% (-9)
For Tyrol: 21% (+21)
SPÖ: 21% (-5)
Greens: 10% (-6)
FPÖ: 7% (-1)

Interesting poll if true. The best showing so far for the Independent List "For Tyrol" by Fritz Dinkhauser, who would most likely enter a coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens. That would be a huuuuuuuuge defeat for the conservative ÖVP, who has dominated this party stronghold since World War 2.

[Jens]

New poll for Tyrol:

ÖVP: 41% (-9)
For Tyrol: 21% (+21)
SPÖ: 21% (-5)
Greens: 10% (-6)
FPÖ: 7% (-1)

Interesting poll if true. The best showing so far for the Independent List "For Tyrol" by Fritz Dinkhauser, who would most likely enter a coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens. That would be a huuuuuuuuge defeat for the conservative ÖVP, who has dominated this party stronghold since World War 2.

What is "for Tyrol"? Any decent policies? Or  is it just another anti-establisment/protest party?

[BenNebbich]

hi,

i haven't found any information about 'for tyrol'. but dinkhauser is a former 'left-wing' ovp member.

so it looks like a centrist party.

[Tender Branson]

hi,

i haven't found any information about 'for tyrol'. but dinkhauser is a former 'left-wing' ovp member.

so it looks like a centrist party.

Yes, he´s the Bloomberg of Tyrol ...

The party/list doesn´t exist yet. If he decides to run and forms the party I will tell you about its policies.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Three new polls for Hamburg, Hesse and Lower Saxony were released today, all conducted by "Advanced Market Research" (never heard of that one before...).



Hesse

CDU 40%
SPD 33%
GRÜNE 10%
FDP 9%
DIE LINKE 6%

CDU/FDP and SPD/GRÜNE/DIE LINKE are tied here with 49% each.



Lower Saxony

CDU 44%
SPD 34%
GRÜNE 8%
FDP 7%
DIE LINKE 4%

Majority for CDU/FDP.



Hamburg

CDU 42%
SPD 33%
GRÜNE 12%
DIE LINKE 7%
FDP 4%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/GRÜNE.

[minionofmidas]

"Advanced Market Research" (never heard of that one before...).

Me neither. From their poll results though, they might have just taken everybody else's polls and taken a guess. And probably not a bad guess either...

EDIT: The company has been in business for 25 years. Political polling, though, seems to be not one of the things they usually do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be amusing if the SPD did better in both Lower Saxony and Hesse than Hamburg.

[Tender Branson]

New Tyrol poll by Market:

ÖVP: 45%
SPÖ: 25%
Greens: 15%
FPÖ: 8%
For Tyrol: 6%
KPÖ: 1%

[Hash]

Three new polls for Hamburg, Hesse and Lower Saxony were released today, all conducted by "Advanced Market Research" (never heard of that one before...).



Hesse

CDU 40%
SPD 33%
GRÜNE 10%
FDP 9%
DIE LINKE 6%

CDU/FDP and SPD/GRÜNE/DIE LINKE are tied here with 49% each.



Lower Saxony

CDU 44%
SPD 34%
GRÜNE 8%
FDP 7%
DIE LINKE 4%

Majority for CDU/FDP.



Hamburg

CDU 42%
SPD 33%
GRÜNE 12%
DIE LINKE 7%
FDP 4%

No majority for either CDU/FDP or SPD/GRÜNE.

In seats this would give

Hessen
CDU 45
SPD 37
Green 11
FDP 10

Hamburg

CDU 54
SPD 43
Green 15
Linke 9
FDP 0

Lower Saxony

CDU 64
SPD 50
Green 11
FDP 10




Linke 7

[Hash]

New Tyrol poll by Market:

ÖVP: 45%
SPÖ: 25%
Greens: 15%
FPÖ: 8%
For Tyrol: 6%
KPÖ: 1%

So it seems like the poll you posted earlier with For Tyrol at 21% was bullsh**t?