Make a Bold Prediction for the 2012 election

[pbrower2a]

Not so wild? Baseline: It's 2008 all over, except that Obama loses North Carolina and picks up Missouri. (Obama won North Carolina by less than the margin of Barr votes, and McCain won Missouri by a smaller margin than the Nader votes).

My real pick? The 2008 Obama victory is extended to include Georgia (military voters -- after graceful exits from Iraq and Afghanistan),  Texas (Hispanic voters), Arizona (ditto, with no Favorite Son), West Virginia and Kentucky (coal does well because of the steel boom): Montana and Missouri (they were close), and NE-01 (eastern Nebraska is much like Iowa).  The rest depends upon who wins the GOP nomination. Huckabee can't win outside the South, and Romney loses the whole South.

[pbrower2a]

Huckabee-Frist 

Wins about everything that Obama didn't win in the South in 2008 except Texas and everything outside the South except for UT, WY, ID, OK, and NE-03.

Not the biggest blowout.

[pbrower2a]

Is Susan Collins married? If she isn't, I think the Gop wouldn't nominate her.

She is more likely to defect to the Democratic Party than be a GOP Presidential or VP nominee.

[pbrower2a]

I could think of a few other reasons why she wouldn't win a primary.

Maine's GOP's ideology represents maybe 2-3% of the nationwide Republican primary electorate.

Pro-choice
Pretty pro-gay (although I'm not sure if she's pro-gay marriage)
Opposes the death penalty
Liberal on environmental issues (although the GOP could benefit from going a little more liberal there, in my opinion)
Liberal-ish on immigration
Supported McCain-Feingold

She's pretty good on guns, but that won't help much after #'s 1 and 2.

She would lose to some right-winger in the GOP after winning the New Hampshire primary. All of those values are to be found elsewhere -- in Barack Obama, who seems to leave guns alone so far.   

[pbrower2a]

We will see the first inaugural speech of Mark Clement Sanford, Jr. on January 20, 2012, after the 350+ electoral vote defeat of Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.

Mark Sanford could be impeached for dereliction of duty long before 2012. It's not for adultery, a commonplace deed; he would be in the same predicament if he had "only" attended a bullfight or a tango convention. 

[pbrower2a]

Palin will defeat Obama in a comfortable victory.

Among those similarly contemptuous of anyone who can be understood in any way to be intellectuals.

Yawn!

[pbrower2a]

1) Palin will be the 2012 nominee..star power wins and she takes Iowa, SC, and wraps up the nomination with a win in TX. Limbaugh, Beck and Hannity applaud a "true conservative"

2) The economy will begin rebounding in late 2010, Dems still lose 25 seats but keep control of congress, economy becomes a plus for democrats beginning in late 2011.

3) Obama wins in a landslide 57-42%, makes major inroads in the west but very few in appalachia and the rural south.

4) Obama holds all 2008 states, wins Arizona, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. Falls short in Georgia and Texas despite optimism, loses GA by 1%, TX by 4%

5) Obama wins Florida by more than 10%, wins Virginia by 13% and adds to margins in the DC suburbs. Also captures Morris and Hunterdon counties in NJ as they dont take too kindly to Palin.

Actually, if a Democrat won Florida by 10% he would likely win Texas. Politically, Texas is best described as Kansas grafted onto Florida. An 8% win for a Democrat in Florida implies a tie in Texas.

Palin would probably do badly in Kansas; Kansas may be conservative but it isn't crazy.

[pbrower2a]

Palin will defeat Obama in a comfortable victory.

Insane!

Obama versus Palin could be the biggest Democratic landslide since LBJ versus Goldwater.

[pbrower2a]

1.) A darkhouse will win the Republican Primary
2.) Unemplyment in Oct 2012 will be close to 12%
3.) Obama will lose re-election, the Republican's will gain, VA, NC, IN, NV, FL, OH, IA, PA, WI, MI, NH, NM, CO and NE-1 in 2012.

1) reasonable

2) Economic recovery will be slow, but it will be evident. The GOP nominee can carp at details and claim that he wouldn't "make the same mistakes".  It won't work.  This recovery will have its basis in reinvestment in wealth creation instead of a credit-fueled consumer binge and a speculative bubble.

3) That looks like Barack Obama facing and losing to "Mr. Generic Republican". Somehow, "Mr. Generic Republican", a candidate easily constructed three years earlier, goes dormant in the primaries.

[pbrower2a]

(modified)

The economy has to an extent recovered, but unemployment has remained fairly static between nine and ten percent. Mitch Daniels in an upset manages to defeat both Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee largely due to the split in the Conservative voting block. Barack Obama,  having an approval rating in the high forties, decides to run for reelection, facing opposition from Mark Warner.  Daniels chooses a Conservative from the South. The major theme is unemployment, with many in that category voting for Daniels simply because they feel betrayed by Obama (claiming the economy had recovered despite still living on the street). But toward the end of the campaign Daniels slips up and shows that the Republican Party offers little more than a raid on the public sector. His proposal to sell off the Interstate Highway System to a consortium of foreign investors who would turn it into an unregulated monopoly that would make highway transportation a means of fleecing everyone:  

The Favorite Son effect barely flips Indiana, but Americans are convinced that they don't want a tax-like increase on every incidence of  long-distance travel and everything that comes by truck. Obama wins an Eisenhower-scale landslide despite a stagnant economy that after a feeble recovery has gone into a recession. Daniels' "modest proposal" gets exposed as  a sure failure.  In the end the consortium that would make the deal shows that it doesn't have the funds for the scheme and that it would have to be a sweetheart deal to make sense for the consortium.  Daniels is unable to convince people that increasing the cost of everything is a good solution to Obama-era deficits.

[pbrower2a]

Fixed:

Really fixed: