NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

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I just got called by Quinnipiac (for some reason we still have a land line) and decided to do my civic duty and answer it.  Took ten minutes.

Mostly about NYC stuff; the top-line Dem primary question only included four prompts: Quinn, DeBlasio, Thompson, Liu.  Not Albanese, boooo.  

Also approval/disapproval of several figures (one of which even a political junkie like me didn't recognize), stop and frisk (disapprove, of course), Bloomy (I approved), and several Bloomy initiatives:

* adding more skyscrapers to Midtown (I VERY VERY strongly approve of this, cannot be overstated)
* the soda ban (I said I disapprove, but wasn't an easy choice)
* the initiative to hide cigarettes behind the counter (I approve of this)

And of course all the standard demographic stuff.

Partial results are here, for some reason, not including the mayoral horse race question.  NYC voters don't approve the soda ban, adding more skyscrapers to east Midtown (there's a gender gap on that one, with women most opposed) or stop-and-frisk.  NYC voters approve hiding cigarettes behind the counter.  

I guess the mayoral horse race question will be released another day, perhaps tomorrow.  Without Weiner, it's really not that interesting, anyway.

Edited to add: No, the horse race results were released on Wednesday:
Quinn 32% (her lowest number in 5 months)
de Blasio 14%
Thompson 13%
Liu 7%

It would be interesting to see if including Weiner changes things much.

Lhota leads on the Republican side, 23% to 11% for McDonald (who?) and 8% for Catsimatidis.     

Every Democrat kills Lhota in the head-to-head matchups.

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Anthony Weiner must have granted interviews with every local TV station today, laying the groundwork for a run for mayor.  It looks like he's in.

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Today I found out that when I registered in NY state last year I picked no party for some damn fool reason, and I won't be able to vote in the primary as a result.

I think I'm allowed to the vote in the Independence Party primary though?

If there is an Independence Party primary.  They're the only New York party that lets unaffiliated voters vote in their primary.  But....

This may have been already asked, but could Quinn win the Independence Party primary while losing the Democratic one? Would she proceed to compete in the general election under this scenario or not seriously contest it, like Cuomo winning the Liberal Party's endorsement back in 2002? Could she win this way?

Is there going to be an Independence Party primary?  Adolfo Carrión Jr. was named by the party as their only candidate.  The only way somebody else who is not an Independence Party member could win the Independence Party line is if petitions were circulated for an opportunity to ballot and they then run a successful write-in campaign.  That's not unheard of in New York politics, but if the major Democratic candidates are trying to win the Independence Party line, I haven't heard anything about it from them.

The NYC and rest of NYS Independence Party leaders don't much like each other.  This article seems to suggest that the warring state party faction might have been circulating petitions for opportunity to ballot in the mayor's race.  I can't find anything on the NYC Board of Elections' crappy website indicating whether that happened or was successful.

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New York Post endorses Quinn and Lhota

The Post and Times agree on something?  Who would have thunk that?

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There's going to be an exit poll in New York City.

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First Exit Polls (only of Democrats):

58% of Democrats think Stop and Frisk is Excessive; 38% Acceptable.
Extending Term Limits for Bloomberg 28% Good Idea; 66% Bad Idea
Most important issues: Jobs 30%; Education 20%; Crime 16%; Finances 12%; Housing 11%.

MoE +-4

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when do polls close?

9PM. 

Given the NYC Board of Elections' traditional slow counting, we probably won't see any meaningful results until at least 10PM, maybe later.

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More Preliminary Exit Polling:

-Almost 75% of Democratic primary voters say the city should move away from Bloomberg's policies.
-About 33% of Democratic primary voters say they were seeking a candidate who could "bring needed change."
-A narrow majority of Democratic primary voters approve of the way Bloomberg handled his 12 years in office.
-About 30% of Democratic primary voters say city schools improved in the Bloomberg years.

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More Preliminary Exit Polling
Again, among Democratic primary voters.  Republicans weren't polled.

Favorables
DeBlasio about 67%
Thompson about 60%
Quinn about 40%
Weiner about 70% unfavorable

Spitzer about 50% favorable
Stringer about 67% favorable

About 40% say NYC economy is good or excellent
About 50% say NYC economy is not good or poor.

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New York Daily News projects de Blasio has a large lead over Thompson and Quinn.   Edison Media Research, which conducted the exit poll says "It is possible, but not certain that de Blasio could hit the 40% threshold and avoid a runoff."  Liu and Weiner are in single digits.

Comptroller race too close to call.

Squadron and James are the top two for Public Advocate.

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Exits, per New York Times blog:

de Blasio 43
Thompson 25
Quinn 18

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Exit Poll

de Blasio wins among males, females, blacks, whites and Hispanics, gays and practically every subgroup except moderates and black males, who went to Thompson and other races (largely Asians), which went to Liu.  He won all 4 borough groupings, breaking 40% in all but the Bronx - Staten Island was lumped in with Queens for some reason (probably too few polled in Staten Island to be statistically meaningful).

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Comptroller Exit is 54-46 Stringer. 

Stringer won decisively among whites.  Spitzer barely took Hispanics and won big among blacks.   Poorer folks went Spitzer; richer folks Stringer.  Stringer takes Manhattan and Brooklyn; Spitzer takes the Bronx and Queens/Staten Island.

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Sigh.  50 minutes after polls close, NYU it is only 3% reporting.  NY state is the slowest in USA when it  comes to vote counting.

Using the old lever machines in this election probably makes reporting even slower.  (Though the dysfunctional NYC Board of Elections is even slow when the new electronic machines are used.)

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On the Republican side, it's still early, but Lhota has consistenly had 54%, Catsimatidis 40% and McDonald 6-7% (2% in).

Comptroller is Scott Stringer 51.7%, Eliot Spitzer 48.3% (6% in).

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Drama on the Republican side with 12% in:

Joe Lhota 48.2%
John Catsimatidis 44.1%
George McDonald 7.6%

On the Democratic side, de Blasio is at 37.8% - which would force a runoff.

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The Democratic Public Advocate race looks like it's heading for a runoff between Squadron and James.  It would be ironic if it were the only race subject to a runoff, forcing the city to spend millions on a contest for a useless office that has a budget of $2.5 million.

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31% in:

Mayor (D):
Bill de Blasio 38.8% 72,039
William Thompson 25.6% 47,457
Christine Quinn 15.8% 29,352
John Liu 8.4% 15,611
Anthony Weiner 5.2% 9,670

Mayor (R):
Joe Lhota 50.3% 11,440
John Catsimatidis 43.0% 9,796
George McDonald 6.7% 1,519

Comptroller (D):
Scott Stringer 52.2% 82,929
Eliot Spitzer 47.8% 76,055

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Not looking good for Spitzer.  I think he has been on a stable 52-48 deficit for a while.  Unlikely he will catch up.

Probably. 

The only good news for Spitzer is that the Bronx, which he is winning, is least-in and Staten Island, which he is losing, is most-in.  But, then again, Manhattan lags the city average and Stringer is cleaning up there.

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They should be calling the Republican primary for Lhota soon.  I'm calling it.  
72% in:
  Joe Lhota 51.4%
  John Catsimatidis 41.9%
  George McDonald 6.7%

AP is calling for a runoff between James and Squadron for Public Advocate.  James has 35%.  Squadron 33%.

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AP projects Lhota the winner of the Republican mayoral primary.

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AP projects Scott Stringer the winner in the Comptroller primary.

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de Blasio at 39.96%

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de Blasio at 39.99%...

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de Blasio at 40.02% with 94% in.  Will he hold on?