WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[2016]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

[2016]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

https://twitter.com/kellyfphares/status/1556298178630225920Manchin has already made it clear that he will run for another term in 2024. And lose.

Manchin is blatantly ignoring some facts that WV 2024 will not be the same State as it was in 2018.

Manchins Vote Share went from 60.57 % in 2012 to 49.47 % in 2018. That is a drop of 11 Percentage Points + he ran against a guy who had a lot of skeletons himself.

Manchin is as disllusional as Claire McCaskill, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly who consistently thought they could fluke themselves back into Congress until they ran out of luck.

[2016]

After todays Vote Manchin is TOAST in 2024.

There are now more Registered Republicans living in WV compared to Democrats.

Manchins Vote Share is steadily declining and regardless whom the GOP POTUS Nominee is that Seat is now almost a lock for Republicans. Manchin got only 49 % in a D-Midterm Wave Year and ran against a guy with a lot of Skeletons.

If Mooney takes his shot in 2024 I think Manchin bails on Re-Election, maybe switches Races and runs for Governor again.

I agree, but I only question the first three votes (Manchin was basically DOA even before that vote), and the last part. I don't think Mooney running really convinces Manchin to retire - either he plans on retiring in any case, or he probably decides to run even if Mooney runs...Mooney is hardly some political titan. I also disagree that if Manchin retires, he runs for governor again. He'll probably find some nice lobbying job for himself instead or something like that (or maybe he'll just retire, period).

Manchins turns 75 later this month, would be 77 by E-Day 2024.

[2016]

I am not saying we are gonna win WVA, MT and OH, we lost the PVI in 22 and still kept the S, and won KS GOV and 3 Biden is likely to win the PVI in 2024 and OH, MT and WVA can split it's votes just like KS GOV did

It depends on what we end up with,  and TX Senate is more in play than FL unless DEMINGS or Graham runs, if John Loves is completetive we may not win TX but it can split it's votes with Sen and Prez

Users forgot Kemp Warnock, Ryan DeWine, Johnson and Evers and how did Tester and Manchin win 2012 and Obama won the PVI 51/47 Romney won MT and WVA and Tester and Manchin both won, it all depends on Border wall, WVA pipeline and extended tax cuts until 2025 in the Debt Ceiling

There will be almost ZERO Ticket Splitting in a Presidential Year. In 2020 the only State that had significant Ticket Splitting was in Maine where Susan Collins prevailed.

If Trump or DeSantis are carrying West Virginia, Montana and Ohio then the Republican Candidate for Senate will also prevail.

Keep in mind that the new Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Cmte is Steve Daines and he is from you guessed it MONTANA.

[2016]

If Justice runs this Race is over. Manchins Popularity is absolutely in the tank.

[2016]

It's not over til a poll tell it's OVER , not a single Incumbent lost reelection yet except for WARNOCK and early vote despite the 1 pt poll shows WARNOCK doing well

WVA isn't AL since 2000 it's split it's votes between Robert C Byrd, Jay Rockefeller and Manchin including 2012 Joe Manchin and Tester win with Obama when They carried both states

This is Robert C Byrd seat, he's vulnerable like Tester but he isn't DOA like users think

West Virginia is a very different State compared to the early 2000's or 2012. Republicans now outmumber Democrats in Registration in the State.

[2016]

We still need to see a POLL, Rs outnumbering Ds in KY and Beshear won, like I said I am not gonna count any of our Ds out until a poll

The last poll had Mooney up by 4 and Bevin was up 4 on Beshear that tells you right there if KY and WVA are 20 pt R states Beshear and Manchin are OUTNUMBERING RS by 16 pts, Doug Jones lost 60/40 Manchin wasn't down 60/40 he was behind 4

Again, totally false from you. When Beshear won in 2019 D's still had the Registration Advantage. The Advantage changed from D to R earlier this year.

[2016]

@Tekken_Guy,
Popular Republican Governors in Red States have a pretty good track record getting elected to the Senate see John Hoeven in ND or Mike Rounds in SD so if Jim Justice gets in this is pretty much an Automatic Pick Up for Republicans.

[2016]

@Tekken_Guy,
Popular Republican Governors in Red States have a pretty good track record getting elected to the Senate see John Hoeven in ND or Mike Rounds in SD so if Jim Justice gets in this is pretty much an Automatic Pick Up for Republicans.

To be fair Hoeven and Rounds weren’t facing incumbents. And rounds had been out of office for four years by the time he was elected Senator.

If Justice gets in there is a reasonable chance Manchin might retire and call it a career.

[2016]

Senator Joe Manchin is truly done in WV come 2024.
A new Poll from WMOV & Triton Research shows only 26 % of West Virginia Voters have an Favorable Opinion of him while 66 % have an Unfavorable Opinion of him.

[2016]

I think Governor Justice is trying to coax Senator Manchin into Retirement.

I remember then North Dakota Governor John Hoeven doing the same thing with Senator Byron Dorgan in 2010.

[2016]

Yeah,
At this Point I think Justice will run to unseat Manchin and maybe even coax Manchin into an early Retirement.

[2016]

Manchin still undecided on running for re-election:

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1628416583147061249?s=20

The only thing he has to decide is whether he wants to leave on January 3, 2025 through defeat at the polls or retirement. It's up to you, dude.

He is leading Morrissey by 10 but losing to Justice and Trump isn't gonna endorse Justice

That's why I still have him in my signature

Alot of these races are gonna be within 5 pts like WI, PA, AZ, NV and GA was and do is KY, MS Gov if Justice wins it would be 5 not 10 there is a substantial blk population that's not in MT but Tester still leads in Charleston WV

Just like Scott and Cruz aren't winning by 20 it's 5 no IAN and OH and MO S Boswell and Allred can win if it's 5 pts

Even Barbara Lee can win because it's a 3 way that's why I endorsed her 2 yrs is a long time for Eday

Gallego is not giving up a safe H S for nothing he is running to end the Filibuster on Voting Rights otherwise Sinema can win her seats it's a 303 map but it's also a 538 map for H and S not just for Prez

Just like users 2016he forgot Laura Kelly won KS 22 he is too stuck on 303 no it's a 538 map that's why Beshear is winning

Again you are not telling the truth my friend.

Governor Jim Justice was endorsed by Donald Trump in 2017. And Justice himself introduced Trump at his Campaign Rally when he switched Parties in July 2017 from Democrat to Republican.

Manchin is a sure GONER if Justice runs which is getting more likely by the Day.

Sir Mohamed is right:
Either Manchin retires or he gets beaten badly by Justice in 2024.

Manchin got only 49 % of the Vote in 2018, his lowest since running for Senate in 2010 when he got 53 % of the Vote.

Manchin is GONE & DONE!

[2016]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

[2016]

Joe Manchins West Virginia Statewide Electoral History

2000 WV Secretary of State: 89 % (Did not have Republican Opponent)

2004 WV Governor: 63 %

2008 WV Governor: 69 %

2010 WV Senate Special (to fill Robert C. Byrds Term): 53 %

2012 WV Senate: 60 %

2018 WV Senate: 49 % (in a D+8 Wave Year) Manchin won by only 19,000+ Votes.

Not a favorable trend especially if its presidential year with the GOP probably winning by 25 points in the state.

The State has changed quite a lot since Manchin ran for Senate in 2018. Last year Republicans passed Democrats for the first Time in the State's History in Voter Registrations.

There ain't too many more Jay Rockefeller, Robert Bryd type of Voters Manchin can peel off.

Question for me is if Governor Jim Justice (who by the way has a nearly 66 % Job Approval in the State) can coax Manchin into an early Retirement Announcement.

This Race feels a little bit like the 2010 North Dakota Senate Race when then Governor John Hoeven continueously threatened a Senate Run and eventually coaxed then Senator Byron Dorgan into Retirement.

[2016]

"Joe Manchin does better in presidential years than in midterm years" is a bad argument given that the number of presidential years in which Joe Manchin has run for Senate is exactly... one, and that was against an unserious opponent in a race Republicans didn’t even contest. The composition of a presidential-year electorate will definitely be more disadvantageous to Manchin than that of a midterm electorate.

You know Tester is leading in a red state and RS haven't defeated a single D inc since 2018 they failed last yr AZ, GA and NV and we have yet to see polls in MO, TX and OH, there are no auto flips when you guys are losing in KY and MS Gov and KS Gov 22 all R 22 states and losing in NC

The problem for RS is Trump and insurrection are still being Prosecuted it's not a normal Election cycle with insurrection and RS in the H said they would deal with inflation no R budget they are consuming with Hunter laptop and Trump has been impeached twice already

Republicans ain't going to lose the Mississippi Governorship this fall. Joy Hofmeister was leading Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt for the Majority of the 2022 OK Governor Race and she still ended up losing the Race by Double Digits.

West Virginia is an automatic Senate Flip to Republicans if Governor Justice runs just like Alabama Senate Race was in 2020 between Senator Doug Jones and Tommy Tuberville.

Trump won West Virginia by more than 40 Percentage Points in 2016 & 2020. It is near impossible for Manchin to get that much crossover support to win Re-Election.

And Trump won't be the Nominee in 2024. DeSantis will likely win West Virginia by a similar margin to Trump.

And Olowakandi also told us all that McCaskill, Donnelly, Heitkamp would all win Re-Election in 2018 and they didn't.

[2016]

This Race is a Republican LOCK with Jim Justice EVEN if Trump is the Republican Nominee in 2024.

[2016]

This Race is a Republican LOCK with Jim Justice EVEN if Trump is the Republican Nominee in 2024.

West Virginia might honestly be the only sate where a Trump nomination increases the chance of a GOP picking up a Sneta seat.

Increases? That seat was gonna flip no matter what.

Not sure. In a State like West Virginia Republicans & Blue Collar Democrats could stay home if DeSantis is the Nominee.

[2016]

In the end I think Manchin loses by a dozen points (maybe more), but I'm not ready to declare his campaign dead yet.

Governor Jim Justice has nearly a 70 % Approval Rating in West Virginia. He is basically in the same Position Mark Warner was at the end of his tenure as Governor of Virginia in 2005 (Warner ran to succeed John Warner in 2008) or John Hoeven before he ran for Senate in North Dakota during the 2010 Midterms.

Justice is universally liked in his Home State. This Seat is an automatic Pick Up for Republicans if he runs just like the Alabama Senate Seat held by Doug Jones was in 2020.

There is also a reasonable chance Manchin retires altogether if Justice officially declares.

So bascially Democrats are already down one Seat.

[2016]

Jim Justice probably did the right embracing Trump EVEN after Trumps Indictment considering these Margins here:

2016 Presidential Election in West Virginia

Donald Trump/Mike Pence   489,371 - 68,50 %
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine   188,794 - 26,43 %

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

2020 Presidential Election in West Virginia

Donald Trump/Mike Pence   545,382 - 68,62 %
Joseph R. Biden/Kamala D. Harris   235,984 - 29,69 %

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_West_Virginia

Didn't the User Alben Barkley tell us all that WV moved to the left in 2020? It actually did not. Trump actually increased his raw Vote Difference over Democrats by 9K from 301K in 2016 to 310K in 2020.

Biden getting more Votes had to do with the increased Turnout in General (Pandemic Election) and fewer people voted 3rd Party.

Manchin is DOA if Republicans have managed to coax Justice into the Race and Trumps Indictment makes it even more likely Justice runs.

This Seat is definitly an "Automatic Pick-Up" even more so if Trump is the GOP Nominee. The only Question is does Manchin lose by more or less compared to Senator Doug Jones in Alabama in 2020?

So best-case scenario for Democrats they get a 50/50 Tie again meaning they lose West Virginia and everything else stays the same. I do not see Democrats winning in Florida, Texas and Missouri. There is actually a decent chance Rick Scott, Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley outrun Trump.

More likely scenario though is that Democrats lose West Virginia and either Ohio or Montana giving Republicans Senate Control again.

[2016]

@AncestralDemocrat,
I haven't agreeing with you about Trump as of late however I think we can both agree that Manchin is a GONER. That Seat will belong to Governor Justice in 2025
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1648704465917149184

Those Numbers are a Full Blown Disaster for National Dems and Manchin. Automatic Pick Up IMO!

[2016]

No idea why Mooney is running to get clobbered by Justice. He's in a safe R seat. Well, at least Riley Moore will be an upgrade still.

To be fair I don’t think anyone, Mooney included, was expecting Justice to run until the rumors started coming out shortly after the midterms.

Wasn't that kind of logical to assume? Anyways, it's not unusual candidates running with literally zero chance to win.

Because of Justice’s age, the idea of him running was widely seen more as wishcasting than something that would actually happen. He wasn’t seen as particularly likely to run until last November or December.

Age wasn't the Problem here! The Problem was for the last two Cycles Republicans & the NRSC had a massiv problem and inability to recruit popular Republican Governors.

Look who all passed on Senate Runs in 2022 in particular: Doug Ducey, Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, etc. They all passed on Runs because of DONALD TRUMP.

Compare that to the Pre Trump Aera where they recruited John Hoeven, Mike Rounds, etc.

[2016]

BREAKING NEWS
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D) will not seek Re-Election in 2024
https://twitter.com/Sen_JoeManchin/status/1722698734910210420

[2016]

Doesn’t change the actual math at all, but at least Dems don’t have to pretend to compete here anymore.

It does I think. Democrats now have to win a Senate Seat in either FL, TX, MO or TN to offset the West Virginia loss. They haven't won a Senate Seat in MO, FL since 2012 and McCaskill + Nelson were Incumbents back then. TX & TN haven't had a Democratic Senator in nearly 30 years.

Best case Scenario is a 50-50 Senate for D's.

[2016]

Right on cue the Cook Report shifts WV-SEN to "Solid Republican" following Manchins Retirement Announcement
https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1722706123034116441