Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Sir Mohamed]

Pennsylvania: Gravis, July 22-24, 1006 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 35
Strongly disapprove 44

Biden 48, Trump 45

The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin.  The undecided voters also approve of the Job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.

Gravis being Gravis again. Seems way too close, but at least confirms patterns Trump gets less votes than his approvals. You may expect the see the opposite on election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden only up 3 in Gravis poll in PA, that 500 EC landslide is gone, again. QU and FL 13 pt poll was RV not LV

[Badger]

Some PPP state polls (no presidential matchups included):


Arizona, July 21-22, 816 RV:

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Kelly 51, McSally 42


Maine, July 22-23, 561 RV:

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Gideon 47, Collins 42


North Carolina, July 22-23, 939 RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Cunningham 48, Tillis 40

AZ Biden 65 Trump 35
FL Biden 95 Trump 5 -- note the huge change.
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

Subtle category change for Arizona, as with Michigan in the FoX polls. The Gravis polls have weird numbers of approval for the match-up for Michigan...
 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[/quote]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Your models are always extremely unrealistically Democratic friendly.

[pbrower2a]

I reject polling data that has some obvious contradiction (close in approval numbers but not in the match-up, or vice-versa), push polls, polls that seem to be mabipulative  in purpose... and of course push polls. I accept insider polls only if those polls suggest something contrary to the agenda of the entity commissioning the poll. I might accept an insider poll for a State that almost never gets polled (let us say Illinois or Oklahoma).  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is likely gonna win by 2 to 5 pts not 10 this isnt 1988.

[pbrower2a]

Biden is likely gonna win by 2 to 5 pts not 10 this isnt 1988.

It certainly isn't 1988. This is not an open-seat Presidential election and will not be. We obviously do not certainly have a current vice-President running for election as the continuation as an able administrator for a popular President. In any event it is four years since Obama was President, and Trump is the incumbent.

No incumbent President has gotten less than 39.65% of the popular vote in a basically two-person election since Hoover in 1932. Trump does not have three years of economic meltdown behind him.

It is possible that the margin will shrink. I do not predict hos margins will go. It could be that some of the huge margins against Trump are historically unsustainable.

I see Trump getting at most about 44% of the vote due solely to generational change, with younger, strongly-D (about 60-40) new voters supplanting voters over 55 who die off who are about 5% more R than D. Trump has no youth appeal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I also keep an eye on www.electionprojection.com which does has a landslide, but only 52 Senate Seats and certainly not 250 House Dem seats; however, they from time to time go back and forth with 278 EC votes

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is likely gonna win by 2 to 5 pts not 10 this isnt 1988.

It's impossible for him to win by two points.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS state polls, July 18-24


Michigan (1003 adults including 927 RV):

Adults:

Approve 39
Disapprove 57

RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 57

Biden 52, Trump 40


Florida (1005 adults including 880 RV):

Adults:

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Biden 51, Trump 46


Arizona (1002 adults including 873 RV):

Adults:

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

RV:

Approve 41
Disapprove 54

Biden 49, Trump 45

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, July 16-20, 1057 adults (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 61 (+1)

Strongly approve (+3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+1)

[woodley park]

61% disapproval — that is pretty stark. With the president pressuring states to re-open schools and threatening his own citizens with a militarized police force, I think things can get worse for him.

[Inmate Trump]

Just think: if he had given even a somewhat level-headed response early on to the pandemic and instituted nationwide measures designed to combat the virus, he would most likely be up right now.

But ya know, instead he discouraged masks, discouraged social distancing, denied science and discredited scientists, and spread outright false and sometimes dangerous information.



America does not have a president; she has a drunken and abusive village idiot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: NBC/Marist, July 18-24, 1020 adults including 826 RV (change from March)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-6)
Disapprove 53 (+8)

Strongly approve 26 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+6)


RV:

Approve 44 (-4)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Strongly approve 29 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+6)

Biden 50 (+3), Trump 45 (-1)

Kelly 53 (+5), McSally 41 (-4)

[pbrower2a]

Arizona: NBC/Marist, July 18-24, 1020 adults including 826 RV (change from March)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-6)
Disapprove 53 (+8)

Strongly approve 26 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+6)


RV:

Approve 44 (-4)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Strongly approve 29 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+6)

Biden 50 (+3), Trump 45 (-1)

Kelly 53 (+5), McSally 41 (-4)

Category bounce, but not really significant. Still, 53% disapproval from a reputable poster is a sign of deep trouble in a state that Trump absolutely must win.

CNN/SSRS state polls, July 18-24


Michigan (1003 adults including 927 RV):

Adults:

Approve 39
Disapprove 57

RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 57

Biden 52, Trump 40


Florida (1005 adults including 880 RV):

Adults:

Approve 44
Disapprove 51

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Biden 51, Trump 46


Arizona (1002 adults including 873 RV):

Adults:

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

RV:

Approve 41
Disapprove 54

Biden 49, Trump 45

Seat-of-the-pants handicapping for the Presidency:

AZ Biden 70 Trump 30
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Trump 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 60 Trump 40
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I can add Alaska, Missouri, and Montana:

AK Trump 60 Biden 40
MO Trump 70 Biden 30
MT Trump 70 Biden 30

Michigan and Arizona would be in the categories that they were in if one averages the last two or three polls. The spectacular disapproval of Trump in Florida last week may have been an outlier...  but 52% disapproval from registered voters? Still hideous, and hurricane season could be perfect for spreading COVID-19 with all the people in shelters or scared to go into them, having to choose between a hurricane and a potentially-lethal respiratory disease.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: NBC/Marist, July 14-22, 1067 adults including 882 RV (change from March)

Adults:

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+7)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+3)


RV:

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+7)

Strongly approve 29 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+5)

Biden 51 (+2), Trump 44 (-1)

Cunningham 50 (+2), Tillis 41 (-2)

Cooper 58, Forest 38 (no prior)

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina: NBC/Marist, July 14-22, 1067 adults including 882 RV (change from March)

Adults:

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+7)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+3)


RV:

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+7)

Strongly approve 29 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+5)

Biden 51 (+2), Trump 44 (-1)

Cunningham 50 (+2), Tillis 41 (-2)

Cooper 58, Forest 38 (no prior)

I have long said that although disapproval of a politician at 51% is not a killer for the chances of an incumbent seeking re-election, anything higher usually is. I recall Obama getting a disapproval in Ohio in early 2012 of 51%, and he still won. But that was the highest disapproval that he ever got in a credible poll without losing the state. Yes, Obama was about as effective a campaigner as he could be, and he ended up winning Ohio... barely.

One possible model, and a crude one that I have suggested, is that an incumbent pol can expect to get 100-DIS-approval in the general election.Either way, this poll suggests as clearly as anything else can, that barring unforeseen miracles for Trump or electoral tampering, Trump loses North Carolina. I'm guessing that the last time the Republican nominee lost North Carolina and still won the Presidential election was 1956, when "I LIKE IKE" material was about as commonplace as coins, or so it seemed, at least Up North and in the West.

"Do you approve or disapprove" is one of the most commonplace questions in polling, and this question allows us to treat polls using similar language as similar in meaning. It is thus easy for us to look at two states that at the time seem fairly similar and expect similar results. Likewise, approval and disapproval numbers have a strong correlation to the likely matchup.

People can disapprove of a pol for different reasons. One is for an unwelcome result. Approval and disapproval polls hardly existed for Harry S. Truman, but while the Korean War was going on, one could imagine that approval and disapproval of him was closely related to the latitude of the front line in the war.  Obviously that does not apply now. One could disapprove because of some overt misconduct or exposures of such, which explains how Nixon approval went from celestial to abysmal in such a short time. And then there is economic performance. High unemployment is less damaging to a politician for whom it is abating (Obama).

trump got away with much early because it did not affect our lives much or give us cause for fear. COVID-19 makes a big mess of things.

Trump is obviously running out of time if he is behind by 7% in a matchup with Biden at 51%... and disapproval close to 55%. That is 'only' North Carolina.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, July 14-19, 1313 adults including 1117 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+4)

RV:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

Biden 47 (-4), Trump 38 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the addition of a new Morning Consult poll with Trump's approval at 36/61, the 538 all-polls average has now dipped below 40% approval for the first time since January 2019.

[woodley park]

With the addition of a new Morning Consult poll with Trump's approval at 36/61, the 538 all-polls average has now dipped below 40% approval for the first time since January 2019.

Looks like it just nudged back up to 40%. However, the trend line is not positive for Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just think: if he had given even a somewhat level-headed response early on to the pandemic and instituted nationwide measures designed to combat the virus, he would most likely be up right now.

But ya know, instead he discouraged masks, discouraged social distancing, denied science and discredited scientists, and spread outright false and sometimes dangerous information.



America does not have a president; she has a drunken and abusive village idiot.

This cannot be said enough. Trump only cares about what's good for him and his re-election chances, yet simultaneously doesn't know what is good for him and his re-election. It's really perplexing. Like his supporters he may very well just lack those self-preservation instincts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP state polls, July 23-24

NC: Biden 49, Trump 46 (884 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 50


MT: Trump 50, Biden 45 (917 RV)
Approve 49, Disapprove 45


IA: Trump 48, Biden 47 (1118 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 49


GA: Biden 46, Trump 45 (722 RV)
Approve 44, Disapprove 49


CO: Biden 54, Trump 41 (891 RV)
Approve 39, Disapprove 57


AK: Trump 50, Biden 44 (885 RV)
Approve 48, Disapprove 46


ME: Biden 53, Trump 42 (962 RV)
Approve 41, Disapprove 55

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna lose by 14 points, being down in NC, FL and AZ is the tip of the iceberg.  AK, TX, SC, MT, GA and KS are gonna get competetive and Trump may lose by 14 pts.

[woodley park]

Trump is gonna lose by 14 points, being down in NC, FL and AZ is the tip of the iceberg.  AK, TX, SC, MT, GA and KS are gonna get competetive and Trump may lose by 14 pts.

Is that your position for the rest of this week, or just for the rest of this afternoon?

PPP state polls, July 23-24

NC: Biden 49, Trump 46 (884 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 50


MT: Trump 50, Biden 45 (917 RV)
Approve 49, Disapprove 45


IA: Trump 48, Biden 47 (1118 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 49


GA: Biden 46, Trump 45 (722 RV)
Approve 44, Disapprove 49


CO: Biden 54, Trump 41 (891 RV)
Approve 39, Disapprove 57


AK: Trump 50, Biden 44 (885 RV)
Approve 48, Disapprove 46


ME: Biden 53, Trump 42 (962 RV)
Approve 41, Disapprove 55

So looks like Biden has a good grip on Colorado and Maine, which we expected, and is competitive in Georgia and North Carolina, which we expected. The race is pretty much where it was a couple of months ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Washington: SurveyUSA, July 22-27, 534 LV

Approve 25
Disapprove 69

Biden 62, Trump 28

[Dr. Arch]

Washington: SurveyUSA, July 22-27, 534 LV

Approve 25
Disapprove 69

Biden 62, Trump 28

Holy crap