UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

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If it is true that the ouctome of said meeting was that May refused to consider any alternatives to her deal then it looks like it is either No Deal or somehow May gets forced out in the next week...

Why would May being forced out have any real meaning?  That does not change the 3/29 deadline and the EU position that the deal has to be passed by 3/29 for an extension to be granted.  The EU is saying nothing about an extension if May is kicked out, or not that I am aware.

Principally, I think because with May in charge it is either her deal or No Deal, which means No Deal. So, regardless of the likelihood, May no longer being PM is a necessary condition for the chain of events that would lead to any outcome that isn't No Deal.

Think of it this way, the EU have said "either you pass the deal or there is no extension" - that is perfect for the ERG types who now have exactly no incentive to vote for the deal

She can still revoke Article 50 entirely without the rest of the EU consenting.

And reinvoke it to get a 2 year extension. But she probably wants an extension of less than 2 years.

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The EU has rejected May's request for an Article 50 extension until June 30, saying May 22 (immediately before the beginning of the European Parliament elections) is the latest date für a withdrawal from the Europan Union. They're really playing hardball now:

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https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108840552722849793

Sounds like April 12th then.

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https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1112823431953833991

Customs union was pretty close. There sure are a lot of abstains, though.

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I wonder if the queen would have dissolved the government by now if it was't for the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act.

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Theresa May is going to ask for an "flextension" until June 30, conceding that the UK may have to participate in the EP elections:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk

Question is now how the European Council is gonna react to it. Last time May had ultimately to accept anything that EU was willing to offer her, so her request doesn't necessarily mean much aside from her wish to not have a no-deal Brexit on April 12. The June 30 date (much earlier than Tusk's 2020 date) is more intended to appease the "Leavers" in her own cabinet it seems.

May: "The printer broke, the roof was leaking, and so on"
EU: "You've had over 2 years already!"

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When you start to think that Theresa May is the worst leader of a major EU country, Marcon reminds you otherwise.

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Lmao Tories.

They would likely form a coalition with Brexit

It wouldn't be much of a coalition if they only have 163 seats between them.

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From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

I wonder if they almost want to be crushed by the Brexit party so that they can push harder for Brexit.

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From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

I wonder if they almost want to be crushed by the Brexit party so that they can push harder for Brexit.

There was certainly some tories on the BBC locals stream that I watched making the argument that their couple hundred losses (at the time) were necessary sacrifices to tell May and the frontbench to get on with it.

The whole UK has only 73 seats in the EU election. I don't think the Conservatives want to get their butts kicked in the UK parliament, but might be fine with getting destroyed in the EU election.

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The end of May seems to be a week late this year.

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There are problems with that tweet, but being happy about the idea of Corbyn possibly being the UK Prime Minister after the next one isn't one of them.