2022 French legislatives

[Andrea]

American Outre-Mer

Guayne 1
Yvane Goua (TV) 20.77%
Jean-Victor Castor (NUPES) 17.3%


Guyane 2
Lénaïck Adam (incumbent, LREM) 31,88%
Davy Rimane (NUPES) 21.3%


Guadaloupe 1
Olivier Serva (incumbent, ind, ex LREM) 43.44%
Dominique Biras (FRAPP) 15.02%

Guadaloupe 2
Justine Benin (incumbent, ENS) 31.31
Christian Baptiste (PPDG-NUPES) 26.78%
(there is a LFI candidate with 15%)

Guadaloupe 3
Rody Tolassy (RN) 20.09
Max Mathiasin (incumbent, MoDem) 16.93%

Guadaloupe 4
Elie Califer (NUPES) 38.61
Marie-Luce Penchard (GUSR-ENS) 19,88%

Martinique 1
Philippe Edmond-Mariette (MIM)  17,9%
Jiovanny William (Péyi-A),   14%

Martinique 2
Marcellin Nadeau (Péyi-A-NUPES)   27,6%
Justin Pamphile (MIM) 25,9%

Martinique 3
Johnny Hajjar (Parti Progressiste Martiniquais) 37%
Francis Carole (PALIMA) 18,9%

Martinique 4
Jean-Philippe Nilor (incumbent, Péyi-A-NUPES) 44,2%
Alfred Marie Jeanne ( Mouvement indépendantiste Martiniquai) 25,8%)


 Saint-Barthélemy et Saint-Martin
Frantz Gumbs (ENS) 47.1%
Daniel Gibbs (LR) 27.6%

Saint-Pierre et Miquelon
Stéphane Lenormand (UDC) 32,39%
 Olivier Gaston (NUPES) 29,59%

https://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/legislatives-dans-le-bassin-atlantique-la-gauche-en-force-aux-antilles-guyane-le-parti-presidentiel-evite-la-catastrophe-1293076.html

[jaichind]

Turnout so far looks like 2017

[Oryxslayer]

American Outre-Mer

Guayne 1
Yvane Goua (TV) 20.77%
Jean-Victor Castor (NUPES) 17.3%


Guyane 2
Lénaïck Adam (incumbent, LREM) 31,88%
Davy Rimane (NUPES) 21.3%


Guadaloupe 1
Olivier Serva (incumbent, ind, ex LREM) 43.44%
Dominique Biras (FRAPP) 15.02%

Guadaloupe 2
Justine Benin (incumbent, ENS) 31.31
Christian Baptiste (PPDG-NUPES) 26.78%
(there is a LFI candidate with 15%)

Guadaloupe 3
Rody Tolassy (RN) 20.09
Max Mathiasin (incumbent, MoDem) 16.93%

Guadaloupe 4
Elie Califer (NUPES) 38.61
Marie-Luce Penchard (GUSR-ENS) 19,88%

Martinique 1
Philippe Edmond-Mariette (MIM)  17,9%
Jiovanny William (Péyi-A),   14%

Martinique 2
Marcellin Nadeau (Péyi-A-NUPES)   27,6%
Justin Pamphile (MIM) 25,9%

Martinique 3
Johnny Hajjar (Parti Progressiste Martiniquais) 37%
Francis Carole (PALIMA) 18,9%

Martinique 4
Jean-Philippe Nilor (incumbent, Péyi-A-NUPES) 44,2%
Alfred Marie Jeanne ( Mouvement indépendantiste Martiniquai) 25,8%)


 Saint-Barthélemy et Saint-Martin
Frantz Gumbs (ENS) 47.1%
Daniel Gibbs (LR) 27.6%

Saint-Pierre et Miquelon
Stéphane Lenormand (UDC) 32,39%
 Olivier Gaston (NUPES) 29,59%

https://la1ere.francetvinfo.fr/legislatives-dans-le-bassin-atlantique-la-gauche-en-force-aux-antilles-guyane-le-parti-presidentiel-evite-la-catastrophe-1293076.html

Bar Charts:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1535957531939549186?s=20&t=W74GIiliu...

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1535931814598086656?s=20&t=W74GIiliu...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huh, so all around weird and messy results in the DTOMs so far. I have to say though, I did expect Ensemble candidates to bomb given Macron's scores in the presidential election. The fact that a few of them are holding out so well is notable, though who knows if it means anything for the metropole. NUPES is also doing fairly well so far.

[MaxQue]

Centrist is a wierd description for the qualified in Martinique-1, given he is a municipal councillor in a RDM-run city (left-wing party), that he was endorsed by Péyi-A and was the suppléant of the retiring BPM MP (another left-twing party).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1536001097420128257?s=20&t=1HV3RHfXt...

https://twitter.com/Interieur_Gouv/status/1536000381083344897?s=20&t=LnugQpg...


Turnout remains where we expected it to be going into the vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol Jesus down again

[Hash]

Huh, so all around weird and messy results in the DTOMs so far. I have to say though, I did expect Ensemble candidates to bomb given Macron's scores in the presidential election. The fact that a few of them are holding out so well is notable, though who knows if it means anything for the metropole. NUPES is also doing fairly well so far.

Overseas results will always seem 'weird and messy' given that they're largely about local political dynamics which we don't know much about, and that turnout is low (around 25% in Guadeloupe). Trying to make too much sense of them, or using them to make predictions, is a fool's errand. With very cursory knowledge of local politics, some of the results are more expected, while others are pretty surprising - the RN qualifying for the runoff in Guadeloupe-3 and probably standing a good chance of winning the seat, LFI finishing second in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon and defeating the candidate of Cap sur l'avenir (the local movement of former cabinet minister and deputy Annick Girardin) and the mess in Guyane-1.

I also note that former Sarkozy-era cabinet minister Marie-Luce Penchard, the daughter of  the late Lucette-Michaux Chevry, the old corrupt chiraquienne political boss, is qualified for the runoff in Guadeloupe-4 (but will probably lose).

On the other side of the world, both New Caledonia runoffs will oppose loyalists to nationalists - it's the first time that the Kanak nationalists qualified for the runoff in the 1st, a loyalist stronghold (Nouméa) - although both seats should remain held by loyalists (of the variety close to macronismo). I note that New Caledonia has been deprived of a third seat since the last redistricting, because Paris doesn't want to create one that would likely elect a nationalist.

On a side note, after voting my conscience and genuine beliefs in the first round, which naturally amounted to less than 1% for my candidate, I voted NUPES in the runoff today - very reluctantly, and I feel dirty for voting for a Mélenchon cultist, but it doesn't matter and I don't really care (besides the incumbent is a useless hack).

[Hash]

Ifop and Ipsos turnout estimates: 47%

A record low for a first round (48.7% in 2017, it fell to 42.5% in the runoff).

Not particularly good news for democratic institutions, but who cares about those things?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When do we get the exit poll?

[Mike88]

When do we get the exit poll?

I assume at 8pm. Polls start to close at 7pm, but remain open in the big urban areas until 8pm.

[Mike88]

Also, live TV coverage:

TF1:

LCI:

France24 (English)

[Former President tack50]

Interesting. Really terrible result for Ensemble, but SP&M is a weird place, and Macronism tanking in the DTOMs is no surprise at this point. Sounds like NUPES might have a decent shot in the runoff, but again, so many unknowns apply here.

But that's the point, I believe that many on the left, saw the Geringonça experiment as model and something that worked and, sure it's oversimplification, like you said, but the issue is that, and it's a very interesting discussion, did it gave positive results? It's off topic from this board of course, but I'm not sure the country improved, because the PS used the left and, in the end, this "hopefull" experiment for the left, turned out to be it's ultimate downfall.

I mean, the electoral fortunes of the Portuguese left are one thing, but I think everyone can agree that the Geringonça government did a far better job of stirring the Portuguese economy compared to the other PIIGS countries that went through devastating austerity programs. Which was clearly Corbières' point here. Again, as a parallel it has obvious limits, but I don't think we need to overinterpret it either.

Perhaps this is off-topic at this point, but "did it really"? The Gerinconça government, as much as I love it, came in a bit too late to actually deal with austerity, which was something that mostly applies to the early 2010s.

As for comparisons to the other PIGS countries; I think we all know how much of a disaster SYRIZA's time in government was, though tbf most if not all of the damage came in very early in their term. Italy had a left of centre-governments during that time which were also good even if not as good as Portugal's (mostly led by Renzi).

Spain is the outlier in that, for a good part of the late 2010s, it did have a right of centre government so it could show a comparison with "right-wing austerity". However Rajoy's second term was basically a 2.5 year long "lame duck" period, mostly if not exclusively defined by the Catalonia crisis and general dysfunction and instability in government.

In any case, taking 2015-2018; here are 2 metrics of economic performance in GDP per capita and Unemployment

Unemployment:
Portugal: 13.4-7.0% (-6.4%)
Italy: 12.3->10.9% (-1.4%)
Greece: 25.8->19.5% (-6.3%)
Spain: 23.2->15.4% (-7.8%)

GDP per capita growth
Portugal: +9%
Italy: +4%
Greece: +3%
Spain: +8%

So it seems that Rajoy's caretaker right wing government did mostly match Portugal's metrics, albeit with Spain starting from a much, much worse position. Greece is interesting in that it did saw big unemployment decreases but little GDP growth. And Italy gets the worst results overall, particularly on unemployment, though I suppose "Italy is poorly ran" is not exactly a hot take.

Also I guess that there's another metric I am forgetting about which involves "quality of employment created", which presumably was much better in Portugal

[Mike88]

The issue, and maybe it would be a good idea to create a thread about this instead of discussing it here, is that it's a big subject of debate if the Geringonça actually reversed austerity, because many of the tax hikes, spending cuts and following of the EU's strict deficit rules of the Passos government, were continued by the Geringonça. Also, I disagree that the "quality of employment created" was better in Portugal, because the country is still facing a massive brain drain. One of the main policies of the Geringonça was a constant growth of the NMW, which wasn't followed by the average wage. This policy had good intentions, but is now creating a massive wage crisis as the difference between the minimum and average wage is becoming smaller and smaller every year. Almost 25% of workers earn the minimum wage in Portugal, and it affects mostly women and younger people. These conditions, continue to create a constant brain drain, and even shortages of staff in key public services, like the NHS.

The economy is a very interesting question. Indeed, GDP and GDP per capita grew a lot between 2016 and 2019, but this is because of a "revolution" called the "Tourism boom". Before 2012/13, tourism in Portugal wasn't that important in the economy even though the potential was there. During the bailout, and after the fallout of the Greek crisis and the Arab spring fiasco, Portugal realised they needed something to gain ground when the rest of the economy was collapsing. So, the then PSD coalition government enacted several reforms that liberalized the tourism sector and by 2014, the boom was starting. Since then, the economy has become highly dependent on tourism, but because the tourism sector is very low wage, it creates a lot of revenue but little wealth in reality.

Some austerity policies, like the freeze in pensions, and other cuts, were reversed at a faster rate than what was planned, but, overall, I would cite Aitor Hernández-Morales, a POLITICO journalist, which summed up Costa's government as "Austerity with a smile".

And that's that about this. Now let's discuss the French election

[Mike88]

Ifop and Ipsos turnout estimates: 47%

A record low for a first round (48.7% in 2017, it fell to 42.5% in the runoff).

Also, Elabe is saying 47.2% turnout, and OpinionWay 47.5%.

[Mike88]

Found this results from Morcenx-la-Nouvelle commune, Landes:

https://twitter.com/Paltimuche/status/1536037213162549249

Macron won 52-48% in the 2nd round here, and polled 3rd in the 1st round, 19.7% against the 21.3% of Mélenchon and the 23.9% of Le Pen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

IPSOS-Sopra Steria estimates Ensemble and NUPES tied at 25.2%. RN at 18.9%. The right at 13.7%.

[Oryxslayer]

Ipsos estimate for runoffs based on round 1 exits. Much more LR+ than in pre-election polls.

[Mike88]

IPSOS exit poll:

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1536045724202328065

[Mike88]

In the Ipsos projection, Macron would lose his majority, while in the Ifop and Elabe projection, he's just slightly over the 289 seats necessary for a majority.

[Andrea]

Ifop numbers

NUPES 25.7%
Ensemble 25.0%
RN 19.3%
LR 11.6%
Reconquête ! 4%

[Oryxslayer]

[Mike88]

Results page from the Interior minister:

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives-2022/index.html

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Interesting that RN doesn't seem to have been overestimated in the polls then. They very much were in 2017.

[Mike88]

The Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, is leading in her seat with 67% counted:

32.6% Borne
25.9% NUPES
21.9% RN