Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Blue3]

I put in the RI special election megathread, will put here too:



Here’s some potential National politics takeaways

-Obama/Biden connections were most important to Dem primary voters.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than demographics (RI is mostly White/Latino, less than 10% black, less than 1% Asian or Native American or other). And there was a lot of talk about electing the first Latina, who would be representative of RI’s rising demographic, but even if they didn’t split that vote (mostly between Sandra Cano and Sabina Matos) it wouldn’t have been enough. Cano and Matos combined would still be behind both Amo and Regunberg.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than pure progressivism, which got Regunberg far (including Sanders and AOC in endorsements) but not all the way. But this could also be due to the attacks on Regunberg’s father-in-law creating a super PAC to fund him. But Regunberg himself was clearly the closest to the national progressive model, especially on class issues and climate change, while Sandra Cano and others were more of a local issues based progressive

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other interest group spending and support, with Gun Control and Pro-Choice/Abortion very much favoring Sabina Matos

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other labor Union support, which was mostly going towards Sandra Cano


https://twitter.com/GrahamVyse/status/1699243569813279180?s=20

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=540000.150

[Blue3]

I put in the RI special election megathread, will put here too:



Here’s some potential National politics takeaways

-Obama/Biden connections were most important to Dem primary voters.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than demographics (RI is mostly White/Latino, less than 10% black, less than 1% Asian or Native American or other). And there was a lot of talk about electing the first Latina, who would be representative of RI’s rising demographic, but even if they didn’t split that vote (mostly between Sandra Cano and Sabina Matos) it wouldn’t have been enough. Cano and Matos combined would still be behind both Amo and Regunberg.

-the Biden/Obama connection was more important than pure progressivism, which got Regunberg far (including Sanders and AOC in endorsements) but not all the way. But this could also be due to the attacks on Regunberg’s father-in-law creating a super PAC to fund him. But Regunberg himself was clearly the closest to the national progressive model, especially on class issues and climate change, while Sandra Cano and others were more of a local issues based progressive

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other interest group spending and support, with Gun Control and Pro-Choice/Abortion very much favoring Sabina Matos

- the Biden/Obama connection was more important than other labor Union support, which was mostly going towards Sandra Cano

I think the main takeaway is this was another Democratic primary win for the 'liberal' over the 'progressive.' And in this case, a progressive everyone thought had it in the bag. This may represent a backlash against the 'progressive' Democrats with renewed concern that excess government spending leads to inflation (even though there isn't actually much evidence that was much of a reason for the increase in inflation, but most voters aren't exactly experts in economics.)

Mmmm… no.

Outsiders thought Matos, and then Regunberg, had it in the bag.

Locals knew otherwise.

The SuperPAC attack on Regunberg really hurt him… it hurt his progressive credentials. It was the attack that hurt him more than any of his positions on the issues.