Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Amo is leading with the first (very few) returns in from Barrington and Tiverton.

This is the part of the district he'll do better in. Need to see some returns from the northern part of the district to tell how good his final result will be ofc.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Calling 4th place right now for Sabina Matos. A spectacular failure for the once-frontrunner and the only statewide elected official.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Providence just dumped 60% of its votes and it was Regunberg 33 - Amo 26. Still not even enough for Regunberg to take the lead.

Maybe Amo can actually pull this off???!

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Honestly shocked the anti-Regunberg vote was able to consolidate around Amo as efficiently as it seems to be. I was totally in the dark about who would do better between Amo and Cano.

Cano of course is a bit more progressive so she wasnt necessarily competing for the same voters as Amo though.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Regunberg is losing every town to Amo to various degrees, except the portion of the city of Providence that is in the district. In particular the very leafy and lefty East Side of Providence (not to be confused with the separate city of East Providence) looks to be coming in big for Regunberg, as expected. But maybe only campaigning on the campus of Brown wasn't the best idea.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Regunberg got destroyed in heavily Latino Central Falls, finishing behind Cano, Matos (!!) and Amo.

Woonsocket is currently going for state Rep. Stephen Casey but his support seems very limited to just that part of the district.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I'll be damned. Not calling it for Amo yet, but my dooming about Regunberg being inevitable looks pretty silly right now. Turns out lefty activists types don't vote just like we knew all along!

I'll be over the moon if Amo pulls this off. This could turn into Shontel Brown vs. Nina Turner 2.0.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

It'll probably get to within 2 points or so when Providence dumps the rest but I'm not sure if Regunberg can overtake Amo even with that.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Cinyc's precinct tracker reveals sweeping cross-district support for Amo, except when there are local fiefs: Regunberg in East Providence (the city), Matos in the rest of Providence, Cano in Central Falls, Caey in Woonsocket.

That's the east side of Providence, not East Providence.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Decision Desk HQ is calling it for Amo. At this point I'd have to agree.

Never been happier to be wrong!

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Never have I been happier to be wrong!

Amo will become the first Black member of Congress from RI in the state's history.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Amo's probably the frontrunner for the Senate now, if Jack Reed decides to retire in 2026 in my opinion.

I think Magaziner is aiming for that, but I could also seem them both running.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Looks like Providence state senator Ana Quezada will finish ahead of Matos in Providence and Central Falls. What a stunning collapse for Matos. She's barely clinging to 4th place.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I wonder how many more times Regunberg is gonna run and lose in RI elections.

I wouldn't be shocked if he ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2026. Assuming Sabrina Matos is eligible for a second full term as Lieutenant Governor, she's definitely vulnerable to a primary challenge now. If not, I think he'd probably run for an open seat.

She isn't just vulnerable for a primary challenge. She could straight up lose statewide to a Republican at this point. She won by less than 10% last time.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I wonder how many more times Regunberg is gonna run and lose in RI elections.

I wouldn't be shocked if he ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2026. Assuming Sabrina Matos is eligible for a second full term as Lieutenant Governor, she's definitely vulnerable to a primary challenge now. If not, I think he'd probably run for an open seat.

Regunberg already ran for Lieutenant Governor back in 2018. He was only 2,402 votes away from winning too, maybe second time will be the charm for him there.

I think that was mostly just a protest vote against the office of Lt. Gov. itself. Rhode Islanders have a very cynical view of it, it's widely known for being a completely useless position.

Now that he's more known, I wouldn't expect him to do as well as before.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Alright, Utah time. I've never really paid attention to Utah before, how quickly do they count votes?

Hoping my girl Becky can pull through and make it a 2-0 night

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Ok, Becky Edwards is looking good right now. Dominating on the Wasatch Front and while she's in third in Tooele County it's basically equal between all three.

If she can keep her 1/3 share of the vote in the rest of southern Utah (not sure how likely that is), she has this.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Piute County is in. Maloy 76%, Edwards 9%.

That ain't good.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If Maloy kills it in rural southern UT, she could end up close to Edwards. It might come down to the St. George area.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Saw on Twitter that for Edwards to win, she can't be more than 25 points behind Maloy in Washington County. Might be tough. Maloy seems positioned to sweep southern Utah, and although Edwards will do better in St. George than the 9% she got in Piute County, even 30% for her there might be tough.

Not sure if everyone looked at the first returns, thought Edwards had it in the bag and left for the night, but Maloy honestly might be in a better position to win at the moment.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If Maloy kills it in rural southern UT, she could end up close to Edwards. It might come down to the St. George area.

Piute is the second least populated county in the state. Chill.

I know that. But it'll likely be indicative of the rural counties, and Edwards can't afford to be down 60% in that part of the district.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Apparently Washington County is going to drop any minute now.

If Edwards isn't getting 30-35% there, and if Maloy is more than 2:1 over Hough, it's callable for Maloy.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Apparently Washington County is going to drop any minute now.

If Edwards isn't getting 30-35% there, and if Maloy is more than 2:1 over Hough, it's callable for Maloy.

How much would Maloy need to win on that batch alone?

Even 55-60% would be great for her chances

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Garfield County came in. Maloy is beating Hough so badly there that Edwards placed ahead of Hough even though she only got 16%.

Edwards needs to pray that Hough can get to 25% in Washington.