Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)
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Author Topic: Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)  (Read 139952 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2675 on: September 06, 2023, 05:18:43 PM »


Maloy wins.
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
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« Reply #2676 on: September 06, 2023, 05:21:07 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 06, 2023, 05:18:43 PM


Maloy wins.

Wait so does SLC not have 8,000 left?
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2677 on: September 06, 2023, 05:25:32 PM »
Quote from: Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver on September 06, 2023, 05:21:07 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on September 06, 2023, 05:18:43 PM


Maloy wins.

Wait so does SLC not have 8,000 left?

Not in UT-02.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2678 on: September 06, 2023, 05:37:38 PM »
It sure would have been interesting to have who would be the biggest "RINO" in the House in a safe R seat. I guess we can take solace that she did as well as she did.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2679 on: September 06, 2023, 05:54:34 PM »


Maloy will be a fairly generic R. It's not like we're talking about a Boebert clone.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #2680 on: September 06, 2023, 05:58:28 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on September 06, 2023, 05:54:34 PM


Maloy will be a fairly generic R. It's not like we're talking about a Boebert clone.

Maloy is someone in the vein of Chris Stewart. Definitely to the right of Moore and Curtis but nowhere near as far-right as Owens.
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JMT
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« Reply #2681 on: September 06, 2023, 06:57:53 PM »
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The Economy is Getting Worse
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« Reply #2682 on: September 06, 2023, 07:59:59 PM »
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #2683 on: September 06, 2023, 08:14:00 PM »
Congratulations to (for all intents and purposes) members-elect, Gabe Amo and Celeste Maloy.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #2684 on: September 06, 2023, 08:26:00 PM »
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #2685 on: September 06, 2023, 11:16:16 PM »
Thank god Edwards was defeated in the R primary, but it seems like Maloy isn't that great either. Was really hoping for Hough but at least it wasn't the worst case situation.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #2686 on: September 07, 2023, 01:44:48 AM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on September 06, 2023, 11:16:16 PM
Thank god Edwards was defeated in the R primary, but it seems like Maloy isn't that great either. Was really hoping for Hough but at least it wasn't the worst case situation.
Its a low bar. We got an Andrew Garbarino instead of a Wayne Gilchrest.
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
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« Reply #2687 on: September 07, 2023, 09:05:10 AM »
I’ve been trying to figure out is Maloy pronounced like “Mah-loy” or “Mah-low”
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leecannon
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« Reply #2688 on: September 14, 2023, 01:24:14 PM »
I was checking the UT results to see if they’ve changed, and it still has Juab as a three way tie.
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #2689 on: October 01, 2023, 05:59:42 PM »
If he really is appointing Lee then we’ll be getting a special in CA-12 soon:
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2690 on: October 02, 2023, 10:07:22 AM »


In theory a overperformance comparable to what has been seen in special legislative elections could lead to a highly competitive special election.  De facto though a resignation this late into the term could just lead to a vacancy, with elections that occur alongside the normal primary and general.
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windjammer
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« Reply #2691 on: October 02, 2023, 12:00:54 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 02, 2023, 10:07:22 AM


In theory a overperformance comparable to what has been seen in special legislative elections could lead to a highly competitive special election.  De facto though a resignation this late into the term could just lead to a vacancy, with elections that occur alongside the normal primary and general.

Trump carried this district by 16 points. This would be a very big long shot right?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2692 on: October 02, 2023, 12:22:46 PM »
Quote from: Chief Justice windjammer on October 02, 2023, 12:00:54 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 02, 2023, 10:07:22 AM


In theory a overperformance comparable to what has been seen in special legislative elections could lead to a highly competitive special election.  De facto though a resignation this late into the term could just lead to a vacancy, with elections that occur alongside the normal primary and general.

Trump carried this district by 16 points. This would be a very big long shot right?

Average special legislative election swing right now is like D+9 to D+12 depending how you measure it, IIRC.
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #2693 on: October 13, 2023, 08:39:13 AM »
New poll for UT-02:
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #2694 on: November 02, 2023, 03:41:08 PM »
Any predictions for the RI01 and UT02 margins?
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
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« Reply #2695 on: November 05, 2023, 06:58:14 PM »
Quote from: Arizona Iced Tea on November 02, 2023, 03:41:08 PM
Any predictions for the RI01 and UT02 margins?

RI-01: Amo+27

Gerry Leonard is actually making a play at this, running a bunch of pretty good ads that portray him as more of a moderate. He's on the airwaves more than Amo. Won't help him win of course, but could shave a point or two off the margin. Also, low-propensity Hispanic D voters in Providence, Central Falls, and Pawtucket will have even worse turnout than usual, and a number of Bernie hacks who are still mad about Regunberg losing won't bother voting.
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NYSforKennedy2024
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« Reply #2696 on: November 07, 2023, 07:07:09 AM »
Quote from: 🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱 on October 13, 2023, 08:39:13 AM
New poll for UT-02:



Blue Utah in our lifetime 🙏
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #2697 on: November 07, 2023, 01:58:29 PM »
Predicting Maloy wins by 12 and Amo wins by 30.
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🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱
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« Reply #2698 on: November 07, 2023, 03:23:26 PM »
Quote from: Atlas Force on November 07, 2023, 01:58:29 PM
Predicting Maloy wins by 12 and Amo wins by 30.

Utah's Congressional general election is not today though.
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
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« Reply #2699 on: November 07, 2023, 08:14:20 PM »
Polls just closed, Amo already declared the winner.

He's running ahead of Cicilline last year so far, and even ahead of Biden 2020 in some places.
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