IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Left Wing]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There’s a good chance she’s given a sink district that stretches from Des Moines to Iowa City in order to shore up the rest of the delegation.

[Mr.Phips]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.

[Mr.Phips]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.

IA-01 and IA-02 did not go for Trump by big margins.  Also, Polk county cannot be split.  Any district with Polk county in it will be no worse for Axne than the current district.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.

IA-01 and IA-02 did not go for Trump by big margins.  Also, Polk county cannot be split.  Any district with Polk county in it will be no worse for Axne than the current district.

But both districts are trending rightward. They can make IA-4 less Republican in exchange for shoring up 1 and 2.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Democrats can easily win iowa in 2022, remember more people voted for Biden in 2020 than Obama in 2012. They just need to make sure that everyone who voted for Biden shows up at the polls in 2022.

[Left Wing]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.

IA-01 and IA-02 did not go for Trump by big margins.  Also, Polk county cannot be split.  Any district with Polk county in it will be no worse for Axne than the current district.

But both districts are trending rightward. They can make IA-4 less Republican in exchange for shoring up 1 and 2.

Easier said than done with Iowa’s rules against county splitting. Sinking Axne prevents the GOP from having to put any resources into Iowa. It’s not a guarantee but it’s probably the smartest option for them.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/ChuckGrassley/status/1353392161379684354

[VAR]

Chuck having some fun before he gets Blanched in 2022

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1371871955499020288

[MT Treasurer]

(Even more) bad news for Grassley / IAGOP, as IA Democrats seek to replicate the Stacey Abrams model in the Hawkeye State:

“Everybody is looking at the Stacey Abrams model,” said Sean Bagniewski, chairman of the Democratic Party in Polk County, Iowa, adding that while the specific strategies vary by state, “the one constant is that no matter what state you look at, everyone’s trying to do some version of what Stacey did.”

Democrats have seen few statewide successes in Iowa over the past decade. Republicans now control the governor’s mansion and both of the state’s Senate seats. Bagniewski said that part of his party’s problem in Iowa is that it largely gave up on voter registration and mobilization in favor of the kind of data-heavy campaigns that helped deliver former President Obama the state in both 2008 and 2012.

“When I started in Iowa politics in 2008, there were 100,000 more registered Democrats in Iowa than Republicans,” Bagniewski said. “Obama won twice. We were coming off of Tom Vilsack’s two terms as governor. [Former Gov.] Chet Culver was in office.”

“How did we lose so much so quickly?” he continued. “The answer comes back to voter registration and turnout. It’s the Stacey Abrams model.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/544414-dems-look-to-georgia-model-ahead-of-2022-senate-races

Grassley is also 'brushing off' his poor poll numbers, not letting them deter him from running again:

Hinting that he will seek another term, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he will not be swayed by recent polling that shows a majority of Iowans, including a third of Iowa Republicans, hope he decides not to seek another term in 2022. [...]

Grassley brushed off the poll results, pointing to previous, similar polls that showed Iowans were divided over whether longtime former state governor Terry Branstad should seek re-election in 2013. Branstad ended up coasting into a historic sixth term.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/iowa-senator-chuck-grassley-reelection-2022-campaign-announcement-hint-20210317

[VAR]

Donald John Trump is Iowa’s Stacey Abrams. If it weren’t for him, Iowa would’ve been the state with the lowest voter turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Grassley only won in 2016 due to Hillary's poor performance in IA, which won't be replicated in 2022, Mike Franken wants to run

[MT Treasurer]

Donald John Trump is Iowa’s Stacey Abrams. If it weren’t for him, Iowa would’ve been the state with the lowest voter turnout.

Yeah, after all, Republicans only lost the Senate in January 2021, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.

[WD]

Donald John Trump is Iowa’s Stacey Abrams. If it weren’t for him, Iowa would’ve been the state with the lowest voter turnout.

Yeah, after all, Republicans only lost the Senate in January 2021, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.

Maybe if Trump was on the ballot, Perdue would’ve gotten 90% in Cobb.

[Frenchrepublican]

(Even more) bad news for Grassley / IAGOP, as IA Democrats seek to replicate the Stacey Abrams model in the Hawkeye State:

“Everybody is looking at the Stacey Abrams model,” said Sean Bagniewski, chairman of the Democratic Party in Polk County, Iowa, adding that while the specific strategies vary by state, “the one constant is that no matter what state you look at, everyone’s trying to do some version of what Stacey did.”

Democrats have seen few statewide successes in Iowa over the past decade. Republicans now control the governor’s mansion and both of the state’s Senate seats. Bagniewski said that part of his party’s problem in Iowa is that it largely gave up on voter registration and mobilization in favor of the kind of data-heavy campaigns that helped deliver former President Obama the state in both 2008 and 2012.

“When I started in Iowa politics in 2008, there were 100,000 more registered Democrats in Iowa than Republicans,” Bagniewski said. “Obama won twice. We were coming off of Tom Vilsack’s two terms as governor. [Former Gov.] Chet Culver was in office.”

“How did we lose so much so quickly?” he continued. “The answer comes back to voter registration and turnout. It’s the Stacey Abrams model.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/544414-dems-look-to-georgia-model-ahead-of-2022-senate-races

Grassley is also 'brushing off' his poor poll numbers, not letting them deter him from running again:

Hinting that he will seek another term, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he will not be swayed by recent polling that shows a majority of Iowans, including a third of Iowa Republicans, hope he decides not to seek another term in 2022. [...]

Grassley brushed off the poll results, pointing to previous, similar polls that showed Iowans were divided over whether longtime former state governor Terry Branstad should seek re-election in 2013. Branstad ended up coasting into a historic sixth term.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/iowa-senator-chuck-grassley-reelection-2022-campaign-announcement-hint-20210317

I will never understand this obsession that many people on the left have with Stacey Abrams, it's silly, after all she is not some sort of magician, she simply understood that with the growth of the Atlanta area there was some opportunities for democrats and she sized them.

But you can't replicate this model in states like Iowa and Alabama

[Frenchrepublican]

Not the kind of number you raise when you intend to run again
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1382861127512653826?s=20

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not the kind of number you raise when you intend to run again
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1382861127512653826?s=20

I think Grassley is trying to freeze the field as long as possible so Pat Grassley’s opponents have less time to build name recognition, fundraise, and recruit a team of experienced political operatives to run their campaigns.

[SnowLabrador]

Not the kind of number you raise when you intend to run again
https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1382861127512653826?s=20

I think Grassley is trying to freeze the field as long as possible so Pat Grassley’s opponents have less time to build name recognition, fundraise, and recruit a team of experienced political operatives to run their campaigns.

That's a possibility. Also, I love the new thread title.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Tossup/Tilt R, Iowa is a populist state, and I am not sure Republicans can win it without Trump on the ballot even if 2022 is a red wave.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This thread is exactly the same name of my private story on snap

[Real Texan Politics]

Tossup/Tilt R, Iowa is a populist state, and I am not sure Republicans can win it without Trump on the ballot even if 2022 is a red wave.

Heavy doubt it'll be THAT close, even if Chuck isn't the nominee. Pat Grassley can probably win by similar margins to his grandfather just based on his last name alone.

Safe R, with or without Trump.

[Frenchrepublican]

Tossup/Tilt R, Iowa is a populist state, and I am not sure Republicans can win it without Trump on the ballot even if 2022 is a red wave.

Heavy doubt it'll be THAT close, even if Chuck isn't the nominee. Pat Grassley can probably win by similar margins to his grandfather just based on his last name alone.

Safe R, with or without Trump.

You understand irony ?

[Real Texan Politics]

Tossup/Tilt R, Iowa is a populist state, and I am not sure Republicans can win it without Trump on the ballot even if 2022 is a red wave.

Heavy doubt it'll be THAT close, even if Chuck isn't the nominee. Pat Grassley can probably win by similar margins to his grandfather just based on his last name alone.

Safe R, with or without Trump.

You understand irony ?

Guess it depends

I like to think I'm not gullible, yet I'm proven wrong every time. It sucks, but nothing I can do.

At least you were joking though lol

[Lognog]

Tossup/Tilt R, Iowa is a populist state, and I am not sure Republicans can win it without Trump on the ballot even if 2022 is a red wave.

considering the IA dems only did ok in 2018 losing the gov race and practically tying in the GCB, if 2022 is a bit red or neutral, the dems dont have a chance at this race

very likely R

[MT Treasurer]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/