North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Yea, thats D gerrymander straight out of 2002.

I am not going to get trapped into this R versus D gerrymandering dance of death.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Democrats have always had this fetish of drowning out Johnston like Bob Etheridge's seat did.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

It is very easy to draw 2 safe D and 1 Swing district in this area, but he doesn't want to do that because he is trying to compensate for TX at our expense.

It is worth remembering that my hate boner for the NC GOP started when they f'ed up my district and put me in with Wilmington.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

Just realized you have Cary and Apex in the Chapel Hill district--you do realize that they're right on top of RTP right?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Yea, thats D gerrymander straight out of 2002.

I am not going to get trapped into this R versus D gerrymandering dance of death.

How?

The Raleigh-Durham MSA has 2,105,771 people. That's 2.9 congressional districts. Adding in Caswell and Person Counties brings it up to 3.0. Starting out, you obviously have to pair Wake and Johnston Counties.

This is where the first problem comes in. Wake+Johnston is 1.7 congressional districts. You have to drop 0.7 of a cd and give it to the rest of the metro area in the north and west. Conveniently, the cities of Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, and Wake Forest add up to 0.7 congressional districts. Since they are closer to Durham/Chapel Hill than Johnston County, they should obviously be paired with the former.

The second challenge is dividing Caswell, Person, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, Chatham, North Wake, and West Wake into two congressional districts. Obviously, Caswell, Person, Orange, Alamance, and Chatham should be lumped together based on geography. However, that's only 0.6 of a congressional district. You can choose to get the remaining 0.4 of a congressional district by splitting the city of Durham (not ideal) or take it from Cary/Apex/Holly Springs (much better.)

This leaves behind a district of Durham, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, and Wake Forest.

What else would you do?

[lfromnj]

Which is why Southern wake and Harnett and Chatham works great.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I feel so much like the mis attributed quote in the movie Patton about if he was stuck between the Soviets and the Nazis, he said he would attack in both directions.

If it isn't the Republicans dumping Johnston in with Wilmington it is the Democrats dumping it in with Raleigh. Replacing one set of crooks with another.

I would take LfromNJs light tan district, shed some of its Southern extremities and use parts of Wake to make it a swing district.

Also the MSA definition here is problematic as it skews too far Northward and leaves out a lot of territory that is in Raleigh's orbit to the South.

I would center the 8th in the Sandhills and Fayetteville making it straight up tied the last time I drew it, but it is likely trending R, though on the other hand the swing district above is trending D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reminder that fair map and non-partisan map are NOT the same and pro-Dem lines in the Triangle are perfectly fine if the aim is to have a map proportional to the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If a fair map requires placing Durham and Chapel Hill in two separate districts, so be it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

Yes but then you have to put Cary and Apex and Wake Forest somewhere else. And I don't think connecting them around to Johnston which is on the far side of Raleigh is fair at all.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Reminder that fair map and non-partisan map are NOT the same and pro-Dem lines in the Triangle are perfectly fine if the aim is to have a map proportional to the state.

It depends on what you are doing in the rest of the state and if you are engaging in horesh@%t like the parrellel 8th and 9th etc, then sure, but those are not even justifiable in any map, any more then the Asheville 10th bs or the Johnston in with Wilmington garbage.

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Yea, thats D gerrymander straight out of 2002.

I am not going to get trapped into this R versus D gerrymandering dance of death.

How?

The Raleigh-Durham MSA has 2,105,771 people. That's 2.9 congressional districts. Adding in Caswell and Person Counties brings it up to 3.0. Starting out, you obviously have to pair Wake and Johnston Counties.

This is where the first problem comes in. Wake+Johnston is 1.7 congressional districts. You have to drop 0.7 of a cd and give it to the rest of the metro area in the north and west. Conveniently, the cities of Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, and Wake Forest add up to 0.7 congressional districts. Since they are closer to Durham/Chapel Hill than Johnston County, they should obviously be paired with the former.

The second challenge is dividing Caswell, Person, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, Chatham, North Wake, and West Wake into two congressional districts. Obviously, Caswell, Person, Orange, Alamance, and Chatham should be lumped together based on geography. However, that's only 0.6 of a congressional district. You can choose to get the remaining 0.4 of a congressional district by splitting the city of Durham (not ideal) or take it from Cary/Apex/Holly Springs (much better.)

This leaves behind a district of Durham, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, and Wake Forest.

What else would you do?

Well unfortunately I don't think that the MSAs are fundamentally great guidelines in this circumstance.

First of all, Durham and Raleigh are both relatively small cities. Johnston, for example, is very much an exurban rather than inner urban county--the kind of place where a lot of it is fairly rural still (NCYankee please correct if wrong). Franklin is similar.

Granville and Person are even less metropolitan; Southern Granville isn't too far from Durham but the northern portion is pretty dang rural. Person is pretty much just in the metro because it's small and has a weak economy --> more commuters. Even Chatham has areas (Western half) which aren't really oriented towards the Triangle.

The Black Belt counties you put into the Durham district are not good fits. Granted, Henderson is part of the CSA, but it's a lot more like Roanoke Rapids or Rocky Mount in most matters of culture or economy. No clue why you put Warren in there. Plus the 1st district needs those Black voters to continue to perform under the VRA.

I actually don't think there's anything objectionable about putting Johnston into a district with Wake if you do it smartly--i.e. not sinking it in with Raleigh but putting in Wake Forest, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, along with other exurbanish areas like Franklin.

[lfromnj]

Reminder that fair map and non-partisan map are NOT the same and pro-Dem lines in the Triangle are perfectly fine if the aim is to have a map proportional to the state.

It depends on what you are doing in the rest of the state and if you are engaging in horesh@%t like the parrellel 8th and 9th etc, then sure, but those are not even justifiable in any map, any more then the Asheville 10th bs or the Johnston in with Wilmington garbage.

I actually think I drew a fair map which did unfortunately squish Johnston with Wilmington, it was unfortunate but it was a leftover district for that

[Sol]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

Yes but then you have to put Cary and Apex and Wake Forest somewhere else. And I don't think connecting them around to Johnston which is on the far side of Raleigh is fair at all.

There's a decent argument for putting Cary and Apex into the Durham/Chapel Hill district, actually, on account of RTP.

[lfromnj]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Yea, thats D gerrymander straight out of 2002.

I am not going to get trapped into this R versus D gerrymandering dance of death.

How?

The Raleigh-Durham MSA has 2,105,771 people. That's 2.9 congressional districts. Adding in Caswell and Person Counties brings it up to 3.0. Starting out, you obviously have to pair Wake and Johnston Counties.

This is where the first problem comes in. Wake+Johnston is 1.7 congressional districts. You have to drop 0.7 of a cd and give it to the rest of the metro area in the north and west. Conveniently, the cities of Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, and Wake Forest add up to 0.7 congressional districts. Since they are closer to Durham/Chapel Hill than Johnston County, they should obviously be paired with the former.

The second challenge is dividing Caswell, Person, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, Chatham, North Wake, and West Wake into two congressional districts. Obviously, Caswell, Person, Orange, Alamance, and Chatham should be lumped together based on geography. However, that's only 0.6 of a congressional district. You can choose to get the remaining 0.4 of a congressional district by splitting the city of Durham (not ideal) or take it from Cary/Apex/Holly Springs (much better.)

This leaves behind a district of Durham, Granville, Vance, Warren, Franklin, and Wake Forest.

What else would you do?

Well unfortunately I don't think that the MSAs are fundamentally great guidelines in this circumstance.

First of all, Durham and Raleigh are both relatively small cities. Johnston, for example, is very much an exurban rather than inner urban county--the kind of place where a lot of it is fairly rural still (NCYankee please correct if wrong). Franklin is similar.

Granville and Person are even less metropolitan; Southern Granville isn't too far from Durham but the northern portion is pretty dang rural. Person is pretty much just in the metro because it's small and has a weak economy --> more commuters. Even Chatham has areas (Western half) which aren't really oriented towards the Triangle.

The Black Belt counties you put into the Durham district are not good fits. Granted, Henderson is part of the CSA, but it's a lot more like Roanoke Rapids or Rocky Mount in most matters of culture or economy. No clue why you put Warren in there. Plus the 1st district needs those Black voters to continue to perform under the VRA.

I actually don't think there's anything objectionable about putting Johnston into a district with Wake if you do it smartly--i.e. not sinking it in with Raleigh but putting in Wake Forest, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, along with other exurbanish areas like Franklin.

I don't think anyone here is complaining about Johnston being with Wake, its probably one of the better choices, its just obviously not with Raleigh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is NC really gaining a seat in 2022?

[lfromnj]

Is NC really gaining a seat in 2022?

It was 436 in 2012 so 100% .

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is NC really gaining a seat in 2022?

It was 436 in 2012 so 100% .

wasn't MN-07 seat #435?

[Sol]

With regards to the Durham-Chapel Hill thing, just take a look at the area on Google Earth. The area along  15-501 is pretty heavily littered with strip malls and suburban developments, without labels you'd be hard pressed to find the county or municipal line. Both of them are university towns with a high degree of contact between the local colleges. There are lots of commuters, in both directions--I know because I used to be one. They're kind of a no-brainer link.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

First of all, Durham and Raleigh are both relatively small cities. Johnston, for example, is very much an exurban rather than inner urban county--the kind of place where a lot of it is fairly rural still (NCYankee please correct if wrong). Franklin is similar.

You hop in a car in any direction from 70, it is very rural. Even along 70, stuff is rather spaced out until you get to Clayton and points Northward.

Smithfield has parts of it that look like fast growing exurbs, by the High School and the Wal-Mart, with a new road development that I had the misfortune of driving through while practicing to get my license, they basically extended a Stimulus era bridge and road project all the way to 301 right beside the Wal-Mart, this was formerly a short road called Ava Gardner Avenue that basically went nowhere. There was already a 70 bypass that siphoned traffic away from Market street and so West Smithfield is basically a ghost town, with an abandoned K-Mart, Furniture stores and a bunch of closed gas stations. Matthew also flooded this whole area out.

South Smithfield and points South to Four Oaks hasn't changed much in 20 years. Go passed the Walmart Area into Selma, and very little changed at all except for stuff that got tore down after multiple flooding events.

So yea, excluding the older parts of 70 that go through West Smithfield, all the action is along 70 and the rest of the county hasn't changed much at all and is heavily rural.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

A fair map pretty clearly produces 6 Democratic districts and then a tossup, but yeah, it's unlikely. Anyway, the black belt seat, Charlotte seat, Triad seat, and 3 Triangle seats should go to Dems (plus a Sandhills toss-up). Dropping a Triangle seat for a Chapel Hill-Fayetteville seat (yielding 6D-8R) or dropping a Triangle seat for a Chatham-Alamance-Orange-Person-Randolph-Guildford-Rockingham tossup seat and a Sandhill tossup seat (yielding 5D-7R-2S) would also be acceptable.

Going for 9+ safe R seats, however, simply isn't going to fly.

Not really sure how you get 3 Democratic Triangle seats if you're going for a fair map? It'd be more like 2-1R or 2-0-1 at best.

District 1: Burlington, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Cary, Apex, Pittsboro
District 2: Durham, RTP, Wake Forest, Henderson
District 3: Raleigh, East Wake, Johnston County

Durham and Chapel Hill go together--they're a pretty logical community.

Yes but then you have to put Cary and Apex and Wake Forest somewhere else. And I don't think connecting them around to Johnston which is on the far side of Raleigh is fair at all.

There's a decent argument for putting Cary and Apex into the Durham/Chapel Hill district, actually, on account of RTP.

Right. But if you do that, it messes up the rest of the map. Durham-Chapel Hill-Apex-Cary-RTP is a district and (most) of the rest of Wake is a district. However, once you pencil in the Sandhills, Triad, and Black Belt districts, you have a bunch of awkward, stranded territory you have to work around--Johnston County and Alamance County being the most obvious examples.