What is harder to do in a congressional primary?

[Tekken_Guy]

What is harder to do in a congressional primary? Beating a squad member or an ultra-MAGA congressperson in a primary?

[Tekken_Guy]

Option two, by far.

Can you explain?

[Tekken_Guy]

Option two, by far.

Can you explain?

Republicans tolerate their most ideological flank more than Democrats do. Cawthorn and King are outliers.

But we'll see what happens with Bowman and Bush this year.

What were the specific circumstances that allowed for Cawthorn and King to lose their primaries?

[Tekken_Guy]

Option two, by far.

Can you explain?

Republicans tolerate their most ideological flank more than Democrats do. Cawthorn and King are outliers.

But we'll see what happens with Bowman and Bush this year.

King's an outlier fs, but I don't think Cawthorn's example can count. He didn't lose because he was radical - I mean, sure he was, but nothing compared to Boebart, Greene, Gosar, etc., all of whom survived - but rather, because of the myriad of controversies and scandals surrounding him. His situation parallels Santos' much more closely than it does Steve King's.

I’ve always felt that with all the scandals Boebert has been getting herself into lately, and her district hopping, she could be next. She’s way more controversial now than she was in her first term when she was just Rocky Mountain MTG.

There are other Republicans who give me vibes of the “Next Cawthorn” like Crane, Luna, Ogles, Max Miller but we haven’t really uncovered enough about them yet for them to be vulnerable.

[Tekken_Guy]

Option two, by far.

Can you explain?

Republicans tolerate their most ideological flank more than Democrats do. Cawthorn and King are outliers.

But we'll see what happens with Bowman and Bush this year.

King's an outlier fs, but I don't think Cawthorn's example can count. He didn't lose because he was radical - I mean, sure he was, but nothing compared to Boebart, Greene, Gosar, etc., all of whom survived - but rather, because of the myriad of controversies and scandals surrounding him. His situation parallels Santos' much more closely than it does Steve King's.

I’ve always felt that with all the scandals Boebert has been getting herself into lately, and her district hopping, she could be next. She’s way more controversial now than she was in her first term when she was just Rocky Mountain MTG.

There are other Republicans who give me vibes of the “Next Cawthorn” like Crane, Luna, Ogles, Max Miller but we haven’t really uncovered enough about them yet for them to be vulnerable.

I don't really think any of those four would face any trouble at all in a GOP primary. They're just the right amount of far-right.

What's notable about those four is that three of them (Crane, Luna, Miller) represent districts that aren't that heavily R. So far they've not really been all that controversial, but they need to be cautious or they it's not impossible they hit the curb in the next D wave (2026 if Trump wins this year).

Ogles’ seat is only Trump+11, so not that much redder than the other three districts. Also the fastest left-trending by a good amount.

But regarding those four being far right alone probably won’t be enough to beat them in primaries but if the start to become controversial on a personal level that could put them in the hot seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

I can see most of the Squad primaried by normier liberals.
I don´t think Dolan has a path to win a primary agaisnt AOC, but an anti-Squad hispanic liberal (like Torres) could do it.

To primary Greene, it would require a "normier" republican from northeast GA with a resume to show who can appea to both rural areas, small cities and the suburbs. Obviously, that resume would mean success pushing conservative policies that the GOP base there wants. Also, that candidate would need the support of CoG and AIPAC (the easiest part). Does that candidate exist?

MTG would probably be more at risk of losing her primary if it went deeper into Cobb. Also if Brian Kemp endorsed against her that would be a big boost towards her opponent. I think State Sen. Ed Setzler might be the toughest opponent for her.